MotherJones Blog: Previewing the Final Debate, Obama and Clinton Attack and Counter-Attack

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Previewing the Final Debate, Obama and Clinton Attack and Counter-Attack

Will the last Democratic debate before Supersaturated Tuesday, scheduled for Thursday night in Los Angeles, be a mano-a-mano slamfest? During the previous gathering of Democratic candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton got rather nasty, as John Edwards attempted to play the grown-up. With Edwards departed from the race, finally there will be a direct Clinton-against-Obama face-off. And the tensions--and stakes--are obviously higher. Yeah, it's easy to depict this as a sporting event. The Super Bowl debate, etc. (CNN calls it campaign coverage "Ballot Bowl '08.") But at this point in the contest, the not-so-great policy differences between the two are not what counts. What matters are the persons--and that includes how they punch, whether they punch, and how they take a punch. Many--if not most--voters will make a final determination based on their impressions of the character, values, judgment, experience, and talents of the two remaining contenders. And here's the last chance Clinton and Obama each have to compare him- or herself to the other--up close and personal.

On Wednesday, the campaigns provided a preview of what could come. During a speech in Denver--where over 10,000 people turned out to see him--Obama presented a sharp critique of Clinton. "Democrats will win in November and build a majority in Congress not by nominating a candidate who will unite the other party against us," he proclaimed, "but by choosing one who can unite this country around a movement for change." He went on:

It is time for new leadership that understands the way to win a debate with John McCain or any Republican who is nominated is not by nominating someone who agreed with him on voting for the war in Iraq or who agreed with him in voting to give George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran, who agrees with him in embracing the Bush-Cheney policy of not talking to leaders we don't like, who actually differed with him by arguing for exceptions for torture before changing positions when the politics of the moment changed.

Obama noted that if he wins the Democratic nomination, "Republicans won't be able to make this election about the past." And he accused Clinton of being merely another finger-in-the-wind, truth-skirting Washington politician:

If you choose change, you will have a nominee who doesn't just tell people what they want to hear. Poll-tested positions, calculated answers might be how Washington confronts challenges, but it's not how you overcome those challenges; it's not how you inspire our nation to come together behind a common purpose, and it's not what America needs right now. You need a candidate who will tell you the truth.

This was harsh. Shortly afterward, Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, told reporters on a conference call, that Obama was "not ready to practice" the "new politics" he preaches. He dismissed the Denver speech as "the greatest hits of [Obama's] negative attacks....They are false. They are personal." Even before the speech happened, the Clinton campaign reacted to excerpts released by the Obama campaign and posted a prebuttal on a campaign website. The Clintonites noted that Clinton had publicly opposed the use of torture, had never said she would not engage in vigorous diplomacy with America's foes, had backed steps to restrict Bush's ability to take military action against Iran, and had compiled a voting record on Iraq nearly identical to Obama's.

The Clintonites were narrowly right on some points. But Obama was swinging widely, presenting the choice in large, broad terms: old versus new, insider versus non-insider, calculation versus boldness, partisan versus visionary, and, of course, the past versus the future. In national polls, Clinton still leads Obama. (Obama people, however, claim that the gap in California has narrowed to 3 percent--putting their man comfortably within striking distance.) So Obama's challenge remains: to persuade millions of Democrats they ought to go with the unconventional option, instead of the conventional one. That's not a case that lends itself to nuance. Can Obama sell hope, change, and above-the-fray politics and directly confront Clinton at the same time? Thursday night could be his final shot at doing so.

Comments

Obama 2008

Posted by: Z on 01/30/08 at 2:46 PM Respond

I really don't think that Obama can, over the long run, stand up to the Republicans. Hillary IS tough, experienced in campaigning, has reached out to republicans in the Senate and stands the best chance in November. In addition, regardless of whether you like Bill Clinton, he is well-respected by our foreigh allies and can help bridge the overwhelming gap created by W.

Posted by: silverlucie on 01/30/08 at 4:51 PM Respond

Clinton said just last night that she "wanted to talk issues, and wanted to be held accountable". But when that happens, she immediately sayd Obama is fighting dirty?

She made her bed, with the race-baiting and the anti-feminist "feminism" and assorted other quarter-truths. Now she has to lie in it.

I suspect it will be an awkward fit.

Posted by: rachiavelli on 01/30/08 at 5:25 PM Respond

Silverlucie and all of Hill's supporters need a reality check: Hillary cannot beat McCain. Hillary will inspire the Republican base to show up and vote against her more than she can inspire Democrats to show up and vote for her. So McCain takes nearly all the independants, and every registered Republican in the country, and Hill is left with at most 40%--it'll be a massacre. Being a statistician (and a politics junkie), I've spent hours calculating probabilites on this election. I've crunched hundreds of numbers (poll data, previous election results, opinion data, etc...) and I can't find any reasonable scenerio in which Clinton beats McCain; Obama beats McCain in roughly 70% of the reasonable scenerios (albeit by mostly VERY narrow margins). It's pretty clear: a vote for Hillary in the primary amounts to a vote for McCain. Think about it.

Posted by: JDS on 01/30/08 at 8:08 PM Respond

Hillary will win nomination and election because she will get overwhelming support of women voters, who make up more than half of the electorate.
No self-repecting woman who has paid attention to his behavior during this campaign would vote for the whiney Obama. Why do you think the women who know him best as a colleague - members of the Congressional Black Caucus - are supporting Hillary?

Posted by: C on 01/30/08 at 10:02 PM Respond

what makes C think that all of those fundamentalist/right to life/christian conservative women, are, all of a sudden going to vote for the liberal Hillary? get real, the only hope for the democrats is to nominate someone who can siphon off the moderate republican/independant men.

Posted by: Keith Kuckler on 01/31/08 at 4:52 AM Respond

I agree with JDS. Hillary cannot win. The Repubs want her to win the nomination so that they can beat the heck out of her. People still remember what happened in the White House and have not forgiven them. If the Dems want to win the White House, then vote for Obama. We need something new and refreshing. Hillary should pull out of the race now and she and Bill should support Obama if we want the White House. Our main focus right now should be to get the person who can win.

Posted by: MSO on 01/31/08 at 9:54 AM Respond

MSO: I'm amazed when I read your comment. So you've decided that Hillary should just give up. You are going to decided how everyone else in the country should vote and what type of government they should live under. You, with your arrogant entitled attitude. If you're for Obama, then everyone should just fall in line with your wishes. Are you living on this planet or in your own world?

Posted by: jes on 01/31/08 at 2:09 PM Respond

Very disappointed to see that Wolf Blitzer is hosting tonight's debate. There is hardly another pundit who is more pro-Clinton...he'll surely be wearing his Hillary t-shirt under his suit tonight.

Posted by: nic on 01/31/08 at 2:26 PM Respond

I am a democrat but if Hillary gets the nomination, I will vote republican. She is too partisan and boasts experience when her only experience was as a first lady. She had 8 years to get the universal health care done but she failed simply becausae she can't reach across the aisle to work with republicans. I don't want another president who will get nothing done.

Posted by: LA on 01/31/08 at 3:53 PM Respond