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Hope for Obama on February 5
Over at the Economist's Democracy in America blog (no, not these guys), they point out that Obama tends to outperform polling pretty substantially. Check out their chart at right. In four of five states where the Democrats have held primaries—including Florida, where Obama didn't campaign—Obama's actual results have beaten the polls by 6, 12, 13 and 10 percentage points.
That means he could seriously surprise people in the February 5 states where polling shows him within striking distance: Alabama (-10), Kansas (-5), and New Mexico (-7). That said, the polling in the February 5 states has been very spotty. The most recent Rasmussen poll out of California has Obama trailing Clinton by just three, while the most recent CNN poll has him getting walloped by 17. That's a phenomenon you see in Connecticut, Arizona, Colorado, and a number of other places. But here's one thing you can take to the bank: when polls are averaged, which they are at pollster.com, Clinton has huge leads just about everywhere.
Comments
Mein Gutt--George W. makes me sick to my stomach!!!
Read: "How Bush's Fiscal Mismanagement Produced a Recession," Harpers quoting Hamburg's highly respected weekly Die Zeit...
One Thousand Reasons (news by category) has good links on Bush's economic stimulus package...
What about Jon Williams on the cost of mitigating climate change if the world acts quickly and decisively: "Most of the assessments I see put the cost at 0.3 to 0.6 or 1% of GDP--that is a mild recession. It'll have a smaller impact than the subprime crisis in the US," "Why the Subprime Crisis is Worse than Climate Change," BusinessGreen blog.
So..., "Why are the most risky loan products sold to the least sophisticated borrowers," former federal reserve Gov. Gramlich.
Some good Gramlich subprime crisis quotes in: "A Crisis Long Foretold," International Herald Tribune, and "A Catastrophe Foretold," International Herald Tribune.
If all this turmoil is expected to somehow translate into the Damn Republicans purloining the first Black presidency right out of Obama's determinedly clutching fingers, thereby generating never-ending bad blood..., well..., old Barack just ain't worth it man...--"'He's a Mouse': Russell Simmons Speaks Some Truth on Obama," Paul Street, Black Agenda Report, Jan. 30-Feb. 5, 2008.
Sure thing--stuff your stupid Economist's optimistic report on Obama...--forget about those "fabulous frontrunners" and instead read, "Here Come the Corporate Bailouts, Greed and Folly on Wall Street," Ralph Nader, Counterpunch, Aug. 18/19, 2007.
The SC polls averaged 16.6 points error for BHO.
Average error? How much can polls be trusted after such a flop?
Posted by: capt on 02/01/08 at 5:42 AM Respond
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Posted by: Michael L. Wagner on 01/31/08 at 12:04 PM Respond