MotherJones Blog: More on Which Dem Can Beat McCain

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More on Which Dem Can Beat McCain

I left out a couple things in my long blog post yesterday on which Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, can beat John McCain. So get ready...

The first thing I didn't mention is this: Hillary Clinton has more experience combating the right wing's attacks. Yes, there probably more mud to sling at her, and yes, conservatives have already spent decades doing research on the Clintons—but as she's said on the campaign trail, she's taken the worst they can throw at her and she's still standing.

Obama is coasting along with relatively low negatives right now, but in a general election the Right will find a way to drive those up. They'll find mud to sling at him too, and if they can't find any, they'll create some out of thin air. Obama won't mobilize Republican donors, volunteers, and voters the way Clinton will, but he will still get attacked as violently and as frequently as she would. Will Obama be able to respond effectively? We honestly don't know. He's never run a tough race against a nasty Republican.

It's fair to say that because Clinton is a known quantity for so many Americans, and because the Right has already revealed its cards in how it's going to attack her, she has a tight ceiling and tight floor. If she wins this election, it'll be an incredibly hard fought battle with McCain that ends up 51-49 or 52-48. If the Democratic wave that we all foresee doesn't occur, she could lose by that same two to four point margin.

Obama on the other hand has a higher ceiling and a lower floor. He's energizing young people, minorities, independents, and people of all ages who don't traditionally engage in politics. He has fewer angles of attack for the Republicans to use, and presents a greater contrast to McCain. He could win a huge electoral college landslide and usher in new Democratic senators and congressmen around the country. But he could also screw up in the general election when he starts facing real nastiness for the first time in his career and lose by a substantial margin.

More after the jump...

One thing Democrats should keep in mind is that their impression of the candidates is vastly different from everyone else's.

According to a Pew poll released on February 3, Hillary Clinton's favorability to unfavorability rating among Democrats is 80-15. Democrats really like her. But that same rating among Republicans is 14-82. And among independents its 46-47. She's going to win very, very few Republicans in the general election, if any at all. And she has a shot at winning half the indies.

But Obama's numbers tell a different story. His favorability to unfavorability rating among Dems is 76-16, actually worse than Clinton's by a small margin. But over a third of Republican approve of him: 37-52. And independents love him: 62-27.

Obama may be right when he says that he will get her partisans in the general (who are almost all core Democrats), but she may not get his partisans (who include a ton of indies).

Comments

OUR TIME TO BE TREATED EQUAL IS NOW"
Women deserve to make the same salaries as men, the same opportunities as men!
LADIES LETS MAKE HISTORY FOR OUR GRANDMOTHERS, MOTHERS AND DAUGHTERS!!!
Mrs. Ladybird Johnson Former First Lady, United States of America. Women can move beyond the struggle for equal status and for material goods to the challenges and opportunities of citizenship. I always hope that the very best of our people will go into politics and some of our best are women. So, I say: "Don't hold back. Don't be shy. Step forward in every way you can to plan boldly, to speak clearly, to offer the leadership which the world needs. To pluck out prejudice from our lives, to remove fear and hate where it exists, and to create a world unafraid to work out its destiny in peace. Eleanor Roosevelt has already made her own splendid and incomparable contribution to that foundation. Let us go and do likewise, within the measure of our faith and the limits of our ability. Let Eleanor Roosevelt teach us all to turn the arts of compassion into the victories of democracy. Eleanor Roosevelt taught us that sometimes silence is the greatest sin. VOTE CLINTON 2008
"Madame President of the United States...it’s an extraordinary thought. We truly are in a momentous time, where a woman’s potential has no limitations. "Hillary Clinton has already proven to a generation of women that there are no limits for success. She is driven by her passion for public service and her belief in the enormous potential of our country. Smart, capable and strong in her convictions, Hillary has transcended the dictates of what is thought to be possible for our time.
"Hillary is a powerful voice for change as we find our country at an important crossroads. Under her leadership, our country will regain its respect within the global community. She will prioritize issues of global climate change, universal health care and rebuilding a strong economy. After 8 long years, the public will once again have faith in their government.
"Another former first lady, Eleanor Roosevelt once wrote, ‘In government, in business, and in the professions there may be a day when women will be looked upon as persons. We are, however, far from that day as yet.’ More than 50 years later 'that day' is now upon us…and Hillary Clinton is ready to shatter through that glass ceiling for all women."

Posted by: CLINTON 2008 on 02/05/08 at 8:38 AM Respond

People, understand this Election is too important for the Women's Rights Movement. Now is not the time to just vote for a female to become President of the United States. This Election is about unifying all the people and changing the present administration. We Democracts must win in November. We need to think of who is electable...Barack Obama is for change and is unifying the people. Hillary is the past and present government let us move forward.

Posted by: MSO on 02/05/08 at 9:09 AM Respond

He's never run a tough race against a nasty Republican.

Billary is about as NASTY as you can get. in fact, her disgusting campaign will cost her my vote in the general election if she gets the nod.

Posted by: Mike D on 02/05/08 at 11:00 AM Respond

McCain SHAMEFUL Voting Record:
The Hill: Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is the only presidential candidate in Congress to have missed a major vote on the Iraq war this year.

The National Journal: "Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., ...missed more than half of the votes in both the economic and foreign-policy categories. On social issues, which include immigration, McCain received a conservative score of 59."

HOW MANY MORE MEN AND WOMEN IS MCCAIN GOING sacrifice to preserve Bush's war legacy?

Posted by: Peter on 02/05/08 at 11:06 AM Respond

PLANET
trumps
NATION

HUMAN BEING
trumps
GENDER

Vote for the candidate who has a real chance to believe America has turned its back on previous monstrosity-policies. Vote Obama.

Posted by: Petunia on 02/05/08 at 12:45 PM Respond

Petunia, are you saying that Ms.Clinton is not a human being?

Posted by: Dick on 02/05/08 at 1:46 PM Respond

We will be LUCKY to have either Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama!!!
Imagine the sheer DIFFERENCE compared to the hell that W. has put us through these 8 past years...

Posted by: Heather on 02/05/08 at 11:56 PM Respond

Obama is also bringing back to the Democratic party people such as myself who have been burned out on politics, who are tired to the Dem party tacking to the right and not standing up to Repubs in congress and the White House. I attended my first caucus ever in Colorado on Feb 5th and have been elected to stand with Sen. Obama as a delegate to our upcoming county convention. My precinct had 40 attendees and Obama won overwhelmingly.

Posted by: John Farmer on 02/07/08 at 12:36 PM Respond

Hard core Obama supporters who wouldn't vote for Hillary are idots. period. and visa versa with Hillary supporters.
You guys are the kind of fools that would hand the presidency over to another idiot republican.

Posted by: Dan on 05/13/08 at 6:39 PM Respond