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After the Non-Defeats of Super Tuesday, A Long Slog for the Democrats
CHICAGO, IL — By the time that Super Tuesday finally arrived, the mystery was long gone. The day that had loomed for so long had lost its melodramatic make-or-break status for the Democrats. Hours before the vote-counting began, the top strategists for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were pitching the same line: the results would not be decisive and whoever ended up the winner would walk away with merely a small edge in delegates. And as the vote tallies started to come in, both campaigns declared non-defeat. That is, they each claimed to have done well. "Encouraging results," Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist said. "We're having a very strong night," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. Both were right.
The two campaigns had plenty of data to spin as the results materialized. Clinton triumphed in California (by an overwhelming margin), Massachusetts (where a big turnout in women negated that Kennedy magic), Arizona, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Obama won in Alabama, Alaska, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Delaware, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, Utah, Idaho, and Missouri. Last-minute deciders, Penn said, went for Clinton. "Momentum is turning," he insisted. Plouffe noted that Obama was competitive in regions across the nation, that he won the caucus states (showing the campaign's organizational talent), and that he captured states that did not permit independents to vote (Delaware and Connecticut). Clinton was the Queen of California. Obama was the Master of Missouri.
But all that really mattered was the final delegate count (which was not easy to calculate in the hours after the polls shut down but was likely to be close)--and the fact that neither candidate was knocked out of the race. Despite the wipeout in California, Obama's senior aides appeared pleased, as they spoke with reporters at his election night celebration in Chicago. Pre-election polls had shown him trailing in most Super Tuesday states, and their goal had been to survive the day. They did. "The nominating battle will continue well past today's voting," Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director, told reporters. Only weeks ago, Clinton strategists were hoping this mega-primary day would end the race in their favor. Now they were talking about the coming slog, as if it had always been inevitable.
Super Tuesday did not live up to its do-or-die reputation because the Democratic field had been downsized to two strong contenders who push rather different memes. Clinton presents herself as the tried-and-tested hard-worker who can get stuff done. Obama offers himself as a transformative figure who can--due to his power to inspire--bring about change. It's math versus music. And after seven years of George W. Bush--during which the music was awful and the math was bad--Democrats crave both proven competence and uplifting inspiration. For many voters, it's a tough either/or. Super Tuesday demonstrated there is no consensus position within the party among its voters.
On election night, the candidates highlighted the contrast. Clinton delivered a speech, much like her standard stump fare, that was chockfull of policy wonkery. Obama went full throttle on the passion and inspiration. "Our time has come, our movement is real," he declared. He noted that he--and his movement--could attract independents and Republicans far more so than Clinton and bring change to Washington. "We are the ones we have been waiting for," he proclaimed. "We are the change that we seek." (That was a new line.)
So the head/heart, prose/poetry--choose your own metaphor--conflict will continue. The rules that govern the Democratic nomination process make it difficult for the party to sort this out, for they benefit a strong second-place finisher. Delegates are awarded proportionally. Consequently, if there is a close two-person race in a state, the loser can pocket almost as many delegates as the victor. It's not easy for a candidate to open up a significant lead in a competitive campaign. (See here for a fuller explanation.)
Now that Super Tuesday has ended with a whimper, no bang, the Democratic contest will turn into an even longer ordeal. The rest of the primary calendar is spread out over the next four months. There are key dates and key states ahead: Maryland, Virginia, the District of Columbia on February 12; Ohio and Texas on March 4; Pennsylvania on April 22. But the race will have a much more traditional pace, with candidates spending days, if not weeks, courting the voters of delegate-rich states. There is a six-week break between the Mississippi primary on March 11 and the Keystone State contest.
The conventional take is that this schedule is advantageous for Obama. He remains less known than Clinton. He needs time to connect with voters. The more he campaigns in a state, the better he usually does. "We've always benefited when voters have focused on the decision," Plouffe said. And, Plouffe maintained, Clinton "has ceiling issues." Given that Democratic voters are quite familiar with Clinton, she has had plenty of opportunity to close the deal. For those Democratic voters who do not already fancy her, how much more can she do to win them over at this point?
Clinton aides say there is much she can do--that many Democrats still have not seen the real Hillary Clinton in action. Before the vote-counting began on Tuesday, the Clinton campaign declared that it wanted at least one debate a week with Obama. It noted it had already accepted invitations from CNN, ABC News, MSNBC and Fox News (yes, Fox News). In a conference call with reporters, Penn and Wolfson essentially called on major news outlets to invite Clinton and Obama to debate, signaling, we'll say yes to anything.
Clinton tends to do well in debates, where she can put on display her command of policy details. A long series of debates would build into the schedule potential firebreaks for her--opportunities for her to go after Obama directly should he pull ahead in the delegate count. The debates could also help Clinton keep up with Obama in obtaining face-time with the public. Obama raised $32 million to Clinton's $13 million in January. With all that money, Obama can buy a ton of television ads. High-profile debates would help Clinton deal with any ad gap that develops. And if Clinton can rope Obama into a string of debates, he would have less time for on-the-ground campaigning--meaning less time for those pumped-up mega-rallies that have served him so well.
Plouffe moved quickly not to be drawn into Clinton debate trap. "We've done 18 debates," he said. "Our schedule will not be dictated by the Clinton campaign." Obama would participate in additional debates, he added, but he refused to say how many, calling the Clinton campaign ploy "a tactic out of the second-tier congressional campaign playbook."
What's left to be debated? Penn identified one issue--and merely one: health care. The Clinton campaign intends to keep pounding Obama for proposing a health care plan that does not mandate coverage for adults. "We're happy to debate the mandate issue," Plouffe responded, adding that the Clinton camp was "trying to suggest that Barack Obama is running with a secret plan not to have universal health care." And what issue would Obama like to debate? I asked Plouffe. "The debate is about who can best bring about change," he answered. Note he did not refer to a specific policy. The contours of the race are not changing: Clinton wants to out-policy Obama, and Obama wants to convince Democratic voters he's the better person.
Now each candidate will have weeks, if not months, to make his or her case. "We're both preparing for a long drawn-out scenario," Plouffe said, noting that eventually one of the two will gain the "upper hand" in the delegate count. How do you define "upper hand"? a reporter asked him. He replied, "We'll know it when we see it."
Comments
'Super Tuesday' was exhausting for the Obama Campaign. Now with some rest and a new strategy he will prevail. I was extremely pleased with 'Super Tuesday's' outcome.
David Corn is a professional journalist, right? Explain this: "Despite the wipeout in California, Obama's senior aides appeared pleased, as they spoke with reporters at his election night celebration in Chicago." Corn would expect them to what? Scream and stomp their feet?
And notice the toning down of the Hillary Hatred in Corn's post. You'll see it at The Nation too. It's really hard for our alternative media to accept that the witchhunt they launched wasn't that successful and now they're hedging their bets.
Posted by: Rick on 02/06/08 at 9:43 AM Respond
"Clinton triumphed in California (by an overwhelming margin)"
Hey! Dude! :) Check the morning numbers will yah?
Clinton is down to a 9.5% lead in CA and dropping. I would hardly call that "overwhelming"!
:-)
Posted by: Timothy Balcer on 02/06/08 at 12:58 PM Respond
I do not understand how any voter can view the Democratic primary as a question of which candidate can "win them over." The one and only question for a primary voter should be "Who is more likely to prevail against McCain?" On that question, Clinton has a tremendous hill to surmount. Either candidate will enter the campaign with a tremendous structural disadvantage: the mainstream media's adoration of McCain. Looking at McCain's weaknesses and points of attack that will be crucial (warmongering, pandering, establishment, "old" vs "new"), Clinton disables the Democrats from pressing every single one of them whereas Obama presents stark contrasts in all of those areas. Beyond that, of course, the mainstream media detest Clinton as much as they adore McCain. I want Clinton supporters to explain how she can orient and win a campaign against the McCain mythology.
Posted by: chuck on 02/06/08 at 12:59 PM Respond
DAVID CORN (Mother Jones Washington bureau chief): Well, I know there are a lot of people watching this network whose hair is going to turn on fire when they see numbers like this. Because there are a lot of people out there who really dislike Hillary Clinton, but that's not all the population. A lot of people out there do think she's experienced, that she's intelligent, and whether they support her politically or not.
And what's interesting is, these numbers don't say much about Super Tuesday. What they say is something big about the next Tuesday in November, the one that really counts. And you look at Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton being people that the public would like to see talk on TV for the next four years -- more than the leading Republican candidates. And they see Hillary, at least, as being prepared, if not more prepared, than John McCain to win.
So if you're John McCain or Mitt Romney, you look at these numbers, you should be kind of worried.
*****
Odd thing for an HRC hater to say, eh?
Posted by: capt on 02/06/08 at 4:19 PM Respond
I agree what you say about Clinton. I am worried about her ability to win in November.
The fact remains as David has stated "Democrats crave both proven competence and uplifting inspiration." We need both. Clintons strengths and abilities are needed in the Senate, as Senate Majority Leader. With her there, and an Obama presidency we could get all kinds of things done.
For the sake of the party, and of the country she needs to stay where she is. Once she gets over the disapointment of not getting the Presidency she can acomplish great things.
Posted by: Dan on 02/06/08 at 4:33 PM Respond
David: can you tell us, or have you already done so, who is backing Obama? He raised roughly $80 million before January and $32 in January .. do I have that right? That's not coming from $5 and $20 contributions on the internet. He also must have some heavy hitting supporters who plucked him from obscurity to national prominance. Who are they?
Posted by: Konstantin on 02/06/08 at 5:33 PM Respond
http://www.opensecrets.org/
Has some of the numbers - I don't know if January is up yet.
Posted by: capt on 02/06/08 at 7:42 PM Respond
For info on $$$$ try:
Opensecrets-dot-org
Might not have all the numbers but . . .
Posted by: capt on 02/06/08 at 7:43 PM Respond
thankx!
Posted by: mp4 divx xvid on 06/17/08 at 2:36 AM Respond
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Posted by: MSO on 02/06/08 at 7:00 AM Respond