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How Clinton Won California

The big surprise is not that Clinton won among women (59 percent to 34 percent) and Latinos (2 to 1). Those votes more or less met expectations. What few people had anticipated was the massive turnout among Latinos, who comprised 29 percent of the California Democratic electorate yesterday--nearly double what pollsters predicted.

As Simon Rosenberg and Peter Leyden pointed out in their recent Mother Jones feature, Latino voters embody one of two major demographic waves that will change the nation's politics. That they turned out in such huge numbers to support Clinton might indicate they actually really like her, as opposed only to preferring her over an African American or recognizing her name. Or maybe Latinos were politicized even more than anyone had thought by the immigration debate.

Obama has been riding the second major demographic trend--the rise of the Millennial Generation, or Gen Y, a huge, liberal-leaning echo-boom. Nationally, he captures a larger overall chunk of this vote. But last night in California, age was trumped by race. White voters under 30 broke for Obama 2 to 1 but Hispanic voters under 30 broke for Clinton by an even larger margin. And each group voted in equal numbers. Needless to say, if that trend persists across the West and in places like Texas, Obama is in trouble.

Obama's challenge is embodied by people like Eric Hernandez, who I profiled last week and hung out with again last night. Hernandez is 18-years old, Latino, and a hard-working Obama partisan. On Saturday he spent the day block-walking with a group of 15 young people in the large Hispanic neighborhoods of Northern California's Santa Clara County. But only about half of those volunteers spoke Spanish. That kind of outreach in a county of 500,000 Latinos is a drop in the bucket. Santa Clara ultimately went for Clinton 55/40. In the coming races Obama will need need to enlist many more Spanish-speaking volunteers if he still expects the grassroots to animate his campaign.






Comments

Why in the world do Hispanics/Latinos/Hispanos vote AGAINST their own best interests???

Is it a race issue? Do they hate African-Americans so-much that they'd rather have the CORPORATIST Hillary Clinton hold them down rather than vote for an African-American?

I mean really, think about it;

Hillary Clinton is a friend of the Corporatocracy and the Corporatocracy only cares how much slave-labor it can get.

Hillary voted to invade Iraq which more minority groups fight and die in for no reason.

Hillary was on the board of Wal-Mart who locked illegals inside their stores over night.

Hillary supports NAFTA and CAFTA which only helps to reduce the number of jobs available in America beyond Wal-Mart greeter or lettuce picker.

Hillary took large financial contributions from Rupert Murdoch who wants to control what you see, hear and read so, that most of it is about as informative as an episode of Homer Simpson, including Faux News. WTF?

It seems simply stupid to vote against ones own best interests.

I think Billary would be Cesar's worst nightmare, but that's the game, promise The Big Sugar Doughnut, THEN jab em in the back pocket. I've got your hyphenated-americanism right HERE, now fix my taco! LOLOL

The only candidate, not pandidate, but candidate that I like right now is Paul, 'cause I think he'd do the boot-scootin' boogie on that diamond tiara that Billary seems to have her eye on, these days...King George, Queen Billary...do we REALLY have to tolerate royalism, or would it be a better idea for everyone to take the Constituiton refresher course?

Posted by: Bert on 02/06/08 at 7:37 PM  Respond

I watched the returns last night and was channel surfing. Of about 12 pundits, 4 were black. Not a single Latino. Aren't they the same size minority as Blacks? If you think they don't see this bias and know which group has been getting the shaft, you are crazy.

It's not racist but they know who their competition to getting ahead is and they aren't going to vote for a black guy. It's just common sense. Why should blacks get all the press and favoritism and they get dissed?

Posted by: HarryT on 02/06/08 at 8:57 PM  Respond

because harry, this is america and blacks and latinos are not in competition.

4 out of 12 pundits were black? sounds like there are a bunch of out of work latino pundits who need to hir better agents so they can join the glorious ranks of media whoredom.

Posted by: homer on 02/07/08 at 4:50 AM  Respond

Yo' HarryT,

Your logic escapes me. It doesn't seem to be 'common' or 'sense'.

If you are part of an oppressed minority, and another oppressed minority is candidate for Prez, you view that candidate as representing competition for your slice of the pie rather than as someone who can better relate to your own plights?

So you vote for the candidate who represents the oppressor??? You're really a Republican, now aren't ya Harry? Sheez.

Does this mean that Hillary's campaign has superior Spanish language volunteer resources, and she is using these to drown out Obama's message in Spanish speaking areas? Or is Obama, as a relative newcomer, struggling to inform Spanish speaking communities of his message?

Posted by: Andrew from Richmond on 02/07/08 at 7:33 AM  Respond

Dear Josh Harkinson,

Your analysis of why Clinton "won" California is superficial and lacking in so many elements, I don't know where to start. One place to pick up where you completely stopped is the polling place debacle involving non-partisan voters.

Many, many voters, possibly in the hundreds of thousands, who registered as non-partisan (decline to state) voters were prevented from voting on a democratic party ballot. Also, the ones who WERE given the opportunity to do so were often given wrong or incomplete directions re how to fill out the top portion of their ballot, thus nullifying the entire ballot. And, no surprise here, the location in California where this situation happened the most was in LA County, which was reported to have gone for Clinton.

It sure would be great to learn how the actual voters in LA County wanted their county to go. Will we ever find out? Who knows! But as long as the press keeps rolling stupidly along in a direction that completely overlooks this voting debacle, there will never be the momentum we need to go back and count all of our ballots so that the will of CA's voters is what decides our Democratic primary choice, instead of the ink and paper used to write post-election commentary.

Posted by: goodgirlroxie on 02/07/08 at 9:13 AM  Respond

Nope. Clinton won as big as she did because of early and absentee voters.

Clinton was a Goldwater Girl back in the day. That means she's inherently anti-labor and a white supremacist.

Clinton is intellectually arrogant and incapable of leading an entire country as diverse and screwed up as the United States today.

Hillary could lead Britain, or Switzerland; I'm not saying she's not gifted or not a good chief executive.

What I am suggesting is that after 7 years of being FORCED to conform and comply with Republican proto-fascism, the people of the US do not want a chief executive FORCING THEIR WAY into the Whitehouse. It's not going to happen and she needs to simply accept that fact.

Then she needs to go back to the Senate and divorce Bill and send him on his way.

Posted by: Gregster on 02/07/08 at 9:53 AM  Respond

Or, perhaps Latino voters are simply smarter and realize that Hillary Clinton is one of the most qualified candidates to ever apply for the job!

Hola Mother Jones Anglo. As I've noted before, I'm supporting Hillary and that's not uncommon in my community. Maybe it wouldn't be so surprising to Josh and Mother Jones readers if Josh had taken the time to interview a Latino or Latina supporting Hillary but somehow that didn't occur to him. Even now he's offering up an Eric Hernandez who supports Obama. Guess it's always too much to ask that Anglos listen to us? And yes, we are shut out on cable. We are also shut out at Mother Jones. But if Josh had to hear us, he might not be able to take part in the Great White Obama Movement. And certainly that's more important, eh mi hermano Josh?

Posted by: Miguel Guerro on 02/07/08 at 10:18 AM  Respond

While your suppositions make sense on the surface, Latinos are actually trending in the Obama direction (low base right direction). How did Obama split New Mexico anyway?

Machine politics, voting irregularities in LA County and early voting put CA in the tank for Hillary. CA is no longer a bellweather state.

Moreover, Josh, you don't breakdown the difference in
demographics between TX and CA and how voters broke for Obama on Tues. Just look at TX vs. CA: TX has twice as many African-Americans while Hispanics and Asians make up 39% of the TX electorate vs. 48% in CA.

When you factor in how well Obama did among white males, Texas is definitely still very much in play for Obama, particularly if the election there comes on the heels of winning 7-9 of the remaining 9 February states. Also, Ohio
is remarkably similar demographically to Missouri which went quite well for Obama.

We all have biases and I'm obviously seeing the glass more half-full for Obama than others may but your article just isn't supported by much meat.

Posted by: Sweet Al on 02/07/08 at 10:39 AM  Respond

how sad that such a huge demographic is so fooled by a Clinton - who after all has brought us Nafta and Cafta. What is even more distressing is that Delores Huerta supported her with such vehemence. I am still shaking my head in disbelief

Posted by: sheila Goldmacher on 02/07/08 at 11:53 AM  Respond

Thanks to people like me, Ms. Clinton won. Get use to it. When we come to power, watch out.

Posted by: Isabella Fernandez on 02/07/08 at 12:43 PM  Respond

A few thoughts on some of these comments. . .
Sweet Al: You raise a good point about the slightly smaller Latino and significantly smaller Asian population percentages in Texas. I think the Asian factor is very overlooked-- Asians comprise 12 percent of the population in CA and some exit polls were showing Asians going for Clinton 3 to 1. That won't be a big factor in Texas, where the Asian population is much smaller. Also, a significant portion of ballots cast in California were sent in early by mail, at a time when Clinton was polling better. My point is not that Obama can't win Texas. It's that Obama needs a grassroots game that reflects the demographics of the places he's campaigning. I think he realized that a bit late, but the late March 4 primary in Texas will give him more time to catch up.

Miguel:
I've interviewed quite a few Clinton supporters who are Hispanic. Several are quoted in the Eric Hernandez story. I could not be everywhere at once on election night, and I chose the Obama campaign because he was the underdog. I find it more interesting to cover the guy who's struggling to close the gap. It would be great to see you post on why you think Clinton is the better choice.

Goodgirlroxie:
I covered this issue on election night, although I was not in LA, so don't know about specifics there. I have not heard reports that this was a game-changing problem, but perhaps you know something I don't. http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/02/7113_live_blog_from.html

http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/02/7130_california_more.html

Andrew:
My hunch is it's more of the latter, but Clinton's campaign and its surrogates were certainly doing major get out the vote work in Spanish--phone banking, block walking, and more Spanish-language advertising than Obama.

Posted by: Josh Harkinson on 02/07/08 at 9:00 PM  Respond

I am a Latino who supports Hillary, and my entire family voted for her. We like her experience, and specific proposals on issues such as health care. Besides in a male dominated political world, she is an inspiration for many young females in our community, who are saying SI SE PUEDE, and see the example of Latino countries such as Chile and Argentina, where
women have been elected as president.

Posted by: Richard Pizarro on 02/07/08 at 10:30 PM  Respond

I haven't seen any poll results on the distinction between the less educated and more educated Latinos. It is well known that Clinton attracts the less educated voters and Obama the more educated ones. If most Latinos fall into the less educated category it's not surprising that Clinton received most of the Latino vote. And that begs the question of whether less educated people are more racist than educated people. We all know that young people favor Obama and they seem to have gotten past racial issues to a greater extent than older people. I don't think we can conclude that racism doesn't play a part in the Billary vote, and their campaign seems to be fully aware of its potential to shift votes to Billary.

My thanks to Richard Pizarro who actually told us some specifics about why he is supporting Clinton. This gives us something to understand and work with. Simply barking out something like "Thanks to people like me, Ms. Clinton won. Get use to it. When we come to power, watch out." does not help anything. It is an immature approach that fuels people fighting over petty differences that usually don't even matter.

Posted by: Dane Stewart on 02/08/08 at 11:03 AM  Respond

Imagine how much worse this trend will get in future. Basically, all of the various ethnic/racial groups will be voting in their own best interests and this will inevitably, as it had in Eastern Europe, lead to balkanization. We all want different things. How is this going to work?

Posted by: Lucy Goldblum on 02/09/08 at 1:45 PM  Respond

The day is coming when more people understand we are all the same in different ways or different in the same ways. That skin color, gender, ethnicity, orientation matters as little as hair style or fashion.

Hate sucks and the kids growing up today are not blind. They are and should be taught to understand and celebrate different cultures, countries and customs. That no religion is above any other, that all people and faiths are to be respected. That the one overriding responsibility it kindness to themselves first and to all others second. That anything done without love and kindness are not to be done at all.

If we don’t see it in our lifetime we should be instilling the dream for the future.

Unlike the terror of a nightmare this dream will never die nor fade from the forefront of what is possible for all of your children and all of our future generations.

Posted by: capt on 02/09/08 at 2:42 PM  Respond

"When I despair, I remember that all through history the ways of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fall. Think of it--always."

Mahatma Gandhi

Posted by: capt on 02/09/08 at 2:45 PM  Respond

Wait, get the violin....

Posted by: Bert on 02/09/08 at 6:57 PM  Respond

It is so sad to read posts like this. This is the United Staes of America. We should see ourselves as Americans. Instead, people continue to pit blacks against hispanics, Christians against Muslim, gays against straight, blue states against red states. That is why I support Brack Obama. He wants to bring this country back together. You would think all Americans would want this.
What good does it do our country to be full of such hate? When we all work together, there will be no problem that we cannot overcome as a United Nation. United we stand, divided we fall.

Hillary Clinton would make a better president than John McCain, that's a given, but would she be better than Barrack Obama?

People say they like Hillary because she has more experience than Barrack. Well, she does have two more years in the Senate than he does, but then he was an Illinois state Senator for a few years. Does Hillary count being First Lady as experience? I have to wonder what she does count in order to say she's had 35 years of experience?

Hillary's health plan makes insurance mandatory for all Americans. It would be just like your car insurance - you must have it or else. So what will be the 'or else' for people who don't, or can't comply? I've heard wage garnishment mentioned as a possibility. Obama is right when he says people don't have health insurance because they can't aford it, not because they don't want it. Obama's plan isn't mandatory.

If you support Hillary have you considered her corporate ties? Have you looked into who she's taking money from? She's had more corporate money than John McCain, and he's a Republican! If you want to end the corporate stranglehold on Washington politicans I don't think it's going to happen under another Clinton administration.

Many people say if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination, she will cause conservatives who otherwise wouldn't bother to vote into the voting booth in droves - just for the oportunity to vote against her. In this light, Obama again looks better because he stands a better chance of beating McCain.

After careful consideration, I think Obama is our best choice, regardless of our age, race or gender.

Posted by: MacDuck on 02/11/08 at 4:26 PM  Respond

Why is it so surprising to you that Hispanic voters would actually like the person they were voting for? And, more importantly, why do you assume that they would be voting against Obama because he is black? What is wrong with you? What kind of reporting is this? Have a little respect for the intelligence of Hispanic peoples.

Posted by: Disappointed by MJ on 02/13/08 at 11:32 AM  Respond

i think Obama and Clinton really should have planned out their strategies better, much more so Obama now that he's won the nomination. He'd be high to think that he could win the presidency based on the frenzy the nomination brought with it.
............................
Diana King
Addiction Recovery California

Posted by: diana king on 07/01/08 at 5:44 AM  Respond

Obama's challenge is embodied by people like Eric Hernandez, He was been riding the second major demographic The big surprise is Clinton won among 59 percent to 34 percent those votes are more but they expected less.
There were challenged very well but now Obama won the nomination at last. But Ms.Clinton has won.We have to Watch out when powers come to him.I think the people has selected a right person.
========================
Peter Parker
California Drug Treatment

Posted by: peterparker on 08/14/08 at 3:44 AM  Respond

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