MotherJones Blog: It's Not Over: Is Huckabee the Story?

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It's Not Over: Is Huckabee the Story?

All the networks have let their A-teams go home for the night (bye, Wolf!), but I'm still here. Why? Because it's not clear what Huckabee will accomplish tonight. He's already won Kansas, he's leading in Louisiana by 2 percent with 93 percent of the state reporting, and he's trailing in Washington by 2 percent with 78 percent of the state reporting.

He could come away with one win or three wins. Either way, we've got a real situation on our hands. It looks like most of the voters who voted for Romney are joining the Huckabee folks; Huckabee isn't the true conservative that many Republicans are seeking, but apparently he's conservative enough to serve as the alternative to moderate/maverick John McCain. Looks like a major case of buyer's remorse in the first primaries since John McCain was crowned the presumptive nominee.

If this continues on Tuesday, when Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. vote, it will be a wholesale repudiation of the Republican leaders who are slowly and begrudgingly coming to back John McCain.

So who's backing Huckabee? According to CNN's exit polls out of Louisiana, Huckabee found his most support among regular church-goers, evangelicals, economically minded voters (particularly those who feel the economy is performing poorly), young Republicans, and true hard-core conservatives. Is that a coalition that can come through for Huckabee in the next round? We only have to wait three days to find out.

But more importantly, will it matter? Probably not. According to CNN's calculations, Huckabee can win every single state left on the Republican primary calendar by a 50-40 margin and John McCain will still win the delegate contest. (CNN assumes Ron Paul takes 10 percent, but Washington proves he may do better than that.) This is a lost cause for Huckabee. Will he realize that and let the Republican Party coalesce around McCain? Or will he ride this thing out (he looks like he's having fun, after all) so Republicans have a contest instead of a coronation? And could this have happened if Romney was still in the race splitting the conservative vote with Huckabee?

There are open questions in a Republican race that seemed, just a few days ago, to be all answers.

Comments

I agree that the Republican nomination should not be a coronation, McCain should have to fight hard for the job of President. This is a good test to see if McCain has what it takes to be our commander and chief.

Frankly,the math does not work out in Huckabee's favor but he can block McCain from getting the required number of delegates which would mean a brokered convention.

I like Mike Huckabee and I think he is way more conservative and trustworthy than John McCain. Yeah McCain is strong on Iraq but I do not see strength in any other areas. He is not well rounded enough and also does not have the executive experience needed to run the country. Senators just pass bills, lobby and vote. Mike Huckabee has run a state government for 10 1/2 years..

Posted by: marie on 02/10/08 at 7:18 AM Respond

Oh please, some how let Huckabee be the nominee, then the dems are more than assured the White House. The republicans really have this coming. This is what Thomas Jefferson warned about.
"History, I believe, furnishes no example of a priest-ridden people maintaining a free civil government. This marks the lowest grade of ignorance of which their civil as well as religious leaders will always avail themselves for their own purposes."
-Thomas Jefferson to Alexander von Humboldt, Dec. 6, 1813.
Mr. Bush (GW) has laid the ground-work, in ignorant deference to this quotation, and Mike Huckabee would finish the job. It would be far worse that this idiot, Huckabee, be chosen VP, wherein, through some act of religious zealotry, and there has been a 2000 year history of it, He could rise to power. This running the assumtion that a McCain, Huckabee ticket could win. Appropriately I will end with another TJ quote.
""History, I believe, furnishes no example of a priest-ridden people maintaining a free civil government. This marks the lowest grade of ignorance of which their civil as well as religious leaders will always avail themselves for their own purposes." -Thomas Jefferson to Alexander von Humboldt, 1813. ME 14:21

Posted by: MEJ on 02/10/08 at 10:57 AM Respond

To my mind, every time Huckabee performs well in the primaries, it raises the likelihood that he'll be McCain's running mate. It would give McCain both the evangelical and hard-right support he craves and the gubernatorial experience he lacks. I saw a news item about how he was saying he isn't seeking to be on a ticket for VP but wouldn't turn it down, either.

Posted by: Anne in VA on 02/11/08 at 6:22 AM Respond

"IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED TOO CLEARLY AND TOO OFTEN THAT THIS NATION WAS FOUNDED, NOT BY RELIGIONISTS, BUT BY CHRISTIANS; NOT ON RELIGION, BUT ON THE GOSPEL OF JESUS CHRIST." - Patrick Henry

This is what Huckabee has based his campaign on. He's not an idiot, he speaks eloquently and answers all questions lobbied at him.

He's been attacked for his views as has Romney.

McCain is a republican in name only. As far as I'm concerned, his only selling point is his "tough on terror" view.

Posted by: Terry on 02/15/08 at 12:01 PM Respond