«--Previous Post | Blog Index | Next Post--»
Why Howard Dean's Blood Pressure Is Through the Roof
Wanted to add one thought to David's full-bodied analysis of tonight's Democratic results. If you run the numbers, Senator Clinton has almost no chance of catching Obama in the pledged delegate totals, even when you take her wins today into consideration. (Here's the proof.) In order to catch him in the delegate count, she needs to win by completely unprecedented margins in every state going forward. That's not bias. That's fact.
That means she can take her campaign in one of two directions: she can attack Obama so thoroughly that he becomes radioactive and no voters will touch him, or she can use some combination of superdelegates and Michigan/Florida to overrule the will of the people who have voted thus far. Either route creates huge problems for the party. Both damage Clinton even if she does come away with the nomination (because her primary win looks ill-begotten and gangster) and both destroy all of the goodwill and energy currently surrounding the Democratic Party.
I'm not saying Clinton should drop out. She can do as she pleases. But I am saying she should be aware of the consequences on her choices as she decides how to move forward. The difficulties she faces in climbing back into this thing, her wins today notwithstanding, are very real.
Comments
Don't worry, March 4th result has opened up a pandora's box of scenarios.
Prediction 1:
1. Having tasted blood, she will not let go until the convention. Obama arrives there with more delegate count than hers. Clintons pull the superdelegate rug to snatch the victory and offer VP post to obama. Obama refuses.
Two scenarios:
Scenario 1. Obama mobs riot in city and sets stage for an ugly civil war.
Scenario 2. Obama calculates primary support he got in democratic strongholds. With moral high ground on his side, he decides to do an independent run(is that possible so late in the game?) .
I still cannot accept Dick Cheney will let go power. So here is my conspiracy theory. McCain gets completely discredited for lying. Come convention time, GOP is desperate for a way out. Cheney manages to convince himself to run with Ms Rice as VP. White/Black combination on both sides levels the playing field on race and gender.
I'm sure the M$M are pleased as punch to know the last minute media push can still sway so many.
The M$M will pat themselves on the back and reassure themselves they are just "reporting"
(assuming it's true, eh)
The numbers are not there for HRC, you could have "reported" the facts about the numbers before but the scandals and blood in the water are better leads?
You have lost me JS.
I don't say that very often.
Posted by: capt on 03/05/08 at 4:23 AM Respond
This primary is giving me the willies. I hope I'm wrong, but it's beginning to look like HRC will be able to back door her way into the nomination with legal wrangling over MI\FLA. So the choice is a republican or HRC who's as polarizing a figure as the fool currently in office. HRC doesn't have a prayer with independents and if her nomination looks at all fishy, it'll be another Repub administration in the fall. Yikes!
Posted by: dan on 03/05/08 at 5:41 AM Respond
scared boys? you sure sound it.
Posted by: Cady on 03/05/08 at 7:09 AM Respond
The situation in FL and MI is the same as it has been from the beginning: if they want to send delegations to the convention, they can submit delegate selection plans that comply with DNC rules, and conduct their primaries or caucuses in consistency with those rules. The door is still open for them to do that, right now.
Posted by: TKD on 03/05/08 at 7:26 AM Respond
Democratic good will? I'm an independent, but no-one I talk to is excited about either candidate, it is a choice between evils. If the Democrats would start speaking of war crime charges for the current administration they might get some traction
Posted by: Phaedrus on 03/05/08 at 11:37 AM Respond
I live in Kentucky, the primary is not till May 6.
Stop trying to caue one or the other to pull out, screw the party, If I don't get to vote I'll vote for another party and canidate. I will get even with all you SOB's for even trying to screw me.
Posted by: Parvin R. Gibbs on 03/05/08 at 12:57 PM Respond
Terry McAuliffe just told Matthews on Hardball that "the rules are the rules".... Don't see how they could make a case for overturning the rules in Florida and Michigan ...unless they challenge the definition of "rules". I can't imagine that a Clinton would try to upend the dictionary [teh heh] as has the current administration over the past 7+ years.
Posted by: TheRef on 03/05/08 at 2:36 PM Respond
The rules (as I have heard them) allow for MI and FL to hold a primary or caucus before 6/15.
The rest is logistical.
Florida's Gov has said the state would support and pay for a primary - held before 6/15 it would count.
MI - I don't know too much about.
Posted by: capt on 03/05/08 at 2:43 PM Respond
Democratic good will?
Posted by: hediye on 05/09/08 at 1:24 AM Respond
ARCHIVE
August 10, 2008 - August 16, 2008
August 3, 2008 - August 9, 2008
July 27, 2008 - August 2, 2008
April 20, 2008 - April 26, 2008
April 13, 2008 - April 19, 2008
April 6, 2008 - April 12, 2008
March 30, 2008 - April 5, 2008
March 23, 2008 - March 29, 2008
March 16, 2008 - March 22, 2008
March 9, 2008 - March 15, 2008
February 24, 2008 - March 1, 2008
February 17, 2008 - February 23, 2008
February 10, 2008 - February 16, 2008
February 3, 2008 - February 9, 2008
January 27, 2008 - February 2, 2008
January 20, 2008 - January 26, 2008
January 13, 2008 - January 19, 2008
January 6, 2008 - January 12, 2008
December 30, 2007 - January 5, 2008
December 23, 2007 - December 29, 2007
December 16, 2007 - December 22, 2007
RECENT COMMENTS
Partition in Iraq: A Serious Problem With Biden as VP? (25)
Frank Thomas Smith wrote:
Biden's plan is *not* partition. Partition is what happene...
[more]
McCain's Bizarre Undiscovered Foreign Policy Ideas (12)
Drunk Philosopher wrote:
To Jim, quote: "The "insightful" Zakaria calls Iran and No...
[more]
The Campaign Goes Christian (3)
Sharon wrote:
Vote for Ralph Nader for real change. Obama is a hypocrite...
[more]
The Rooskies Are Out to Get Us! (6)
Emphyrio wrote:
5. They think it's the state of Georgia where the Atlanta ...
[more]
Troops Abroad Give to Obama 6:1 (2)
Jeugenen wrote:
LIBERAL OBAMA OR NEO-CON/NEO-LIB MC-CAIN
The political st...
[more]
Speedo's $600 Swimsuits: Made in America, Bought by China (45)
Brandon wrote:
Tech has not gone too far. This is simply another geegaw ...
[more]
Why is HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt Blogging About Abortion? (1)
PeaceNick wrote:
I think what Secretary Leavitt and the Bush administration...
[more]
Under for Fire for Pastor's Remarks, Obama To Give Major Speech on Race (11)
Acomplia wrote:
Generic Acomplia is an Anti Obesity Drug that is Best Weig...
[more]
Responding to MoJo, Huckabee Campaign Explains Difference Between Homosexuality and Necrophilia (19)
dış cephe wrote:
teşekürler....
[more]
Ginsburg's Famous White Gloves Finally Come Off (21)
dış cephe wrote:
teşekürler....
[more]
Movable Type 3.33


Posted by: MR on 03/05/08 at 2:08 AM Respond