«--Previous Post | Blog Index | Next Post--»

Iraq War a "Major Debacle," Says Pentagon Institute

Just last week, following the testimony of General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker on Capitol Hill, President Bush held a White House press conference at which he remained as optimistic as ever about U.S. prospects in Iraq. From the official White House transcript:

The immediate goal of the surge was to bring down the sectarian violence that threatened to overwhelm the government in Baghdad, restore basic security to Iraqi communities, and drive the terrorists out of their safe havens. As General Petraeus told Congress, American and Iraqi forces have made significant progress in all these areas. While there is more to be done, sectarian violence is down dramatically. Civilian deaths and military deaths are also down. Many neighborhoods once controlled by al Qaeda have been liberated. And cooperation from Iraqis is stronger than ever—more tips from residents, more Iraqis joining their security forces, and a growing movement against al Qaeda called the "Sons of Iraq."

Improvements in security have helped clear the way for political and economic developments described by Ambassador Crocker. These gains receive less media coverage, but they are vital to Iraq's future. At the local level, businesses are re-opening and provincial councils are meeting. At the national level, there's much work ahead, but the Iraqi government has passed a budget and three major "benchmark" laws. The national government is sharing oil revenues with the provinces. And many economic indicators in Iraq—from oil production to inflation—are now pointed in the right direction.

This is the sort of presidential spin to which we've grown accustomed. And, yes, Iraq's security situation has improved of late, notwithstanding the recent battles in Baghdad and Basra and a renewed series of Al Qaeda bombings. But as rosy a picture as President Bush would like to paint, a growing number of strategic thinkers in the Pentagon are reaching far different conclusions. Among them is Joseph J. Collins, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for stability operations, currently a professor of national security strategy at the National War College. Collins is the author of a study (.pdf) released yesterday by the National Institute for Strategic Studies (and first reported by McClatchy), which, in direct contradiction of the President's recent remarks, calls the Iraq War as a "major debacle" and describes its outcome as "in doubt."

More after the jump...

An excerpt:

Measured in blood and treasure, the war in Iraq has achieved the status of a major war and a major debacle. As of fall 2007, this conflict has cost the United States over 3,800 dead and over 28,000 wounded. Allied casualties accounted for another 300 dead. Iraqi civilian deaths—mostly at the hands of other Iraqis—may number as high as 82,000. Over 7,500 Iraqi soldiers and police officers have also been killed. Fifteen percent of the Iraqi population has become refugees or displaced persons...

The war's political impact also has been great. Globally, U.S. standing among friends and allies has fallen. Our status as a moral leader has been damaged by the war, the subsequent occupation of a Muslim nation, and various issues concerning the treatment of detainees... Our Armed Forces—especially the Army and Marin Corps—have been severely strained by the war in Iraq. Compounding all of these problems, our efforts there were designed to enhance U.S. national security, but they have become, at least temporarily, an incubator for terrorism and have emboldened Iran to expand its influence throughout the Middle East.

As this case study is being written, despite impressive progress in security during the surge, the outcome of the war is in doubt. Strong majorities of both Iraqis and Americans favor some sort of U.S. withdrawal. Intelligence analysts, however, remind us that the only thing worse than an Iraq with an American army may be an Iraq after the rapid withdrawal of that army... No one has calculated the psychopolitical impact of a perceived defeat on the U.S. reputation for power or the future of the overall war on terror. For many analysts (including this one), Iraq remains a "must win," but for many others, despite the obvious progress under General David Petraeus and the surge, it now looks like a "can't win."

The report goes on to criticize Donald Rumsfeld for insisting on a smaller invasion force and "questioning, delaying or deleting units on the numerous deployment orders that came across his desk." It also calls out Condoleezza Rice and Stephen Hadley, Bush's wartime national security advisors, claiming that "senior national security officials exhibited in many instances an imperious attitude, exerting power and pressure where diplomacy and bargaining might have had a better effect."

Comments

George Bush a "Major Debacle" says American people.

Posted by: another lib on 04/18/08 at 12:48 PM Respond

Should we now refer to Bush as the debacler?Also, has anyone besides me noticed the uncanny resemblence between Dick Cheney and the Penguin as portrayed by Burgess Meredith in the 60's batman series.Just imagine Cheney in a top hat with the monocle and the long cigarrette.

Posted by: zqahtt on 04/18/08 at 1:22 PM Respond

YO HO, YO HO--a pirate's life for cognition impaired (nonetheless adventurous) Boy George W.

"Yo--Paulie; waz-up?, ya wanna runna bank," verbatim?--who knows, but one can pretty much define the Iraq War by pointing out how it is "very curious" that Paul Wolfowitz was the man chosen by the Bush Administration to be World Bank President...

"So why was Wolfowitz--the man most associated in the Bush Administration with spinning a phony case against Saddam Hussein and his supposed weapons of mass destruction, manipulating US public opinion, poor judgement about how the Iraqi people would react to the invasion and occupation of their country, political and military failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, diminishing US credibility overseas--handed such a plum international position? The World Bank is one of the most influential institutions involved in post-conflict and war reconstruction. Common to all World Bank reconstruction programmes is the immediate application of free market reforms, including legal provisions for foreign investment, full repatriation of profits for foreign investors, private property rights, zero subsidies for food and essential services, and the now ubiquitous 'good governance.' According to Danielle Brian, director of the Project on Government Oversight, a nonprofit government spending watchdog group, in the case of Katrina--as in Iraq--"You are likely to see the equivalent of war profiteering--disaster profiteering," A Suitable Boy: Paul Wolfowitz and the World Bank, S. Guttal, Global Policy Forum.

Vietnam is commonly held as the war we didn't want to win--Iraq is the war we don't want to leave...

Posted by: Michael L. Wagner on 04/18/08 at 6:56 PM Respond

In The Ugly Duckling, a Hans Christian Andersen fairytale, a gawky baby bird grows up to be Our Beautiful White Swan...--The Ugly Duckling is a compelling story about searching for one's place in society...

And in The Lord of the Flies, Nobel Prize-winning author Wiliam Golding demonstrates how culture fails a group of schoolboys stuck on a desert island who try to govern themselves--with disastrous results...

Hardly the story of Big George Walker Bush: Head Cheerleader at Phillips Academy (Senior Year) in Andover, Mass.--or is it???!!!

Really, isn't that the problem here... The "B-Team" has its panties all in a bunch, needing to "prove" how just how very "cool" they all actually are...

Talk about stifling, meddling busybodies taking themselves too damn seriously..., what about the clergy at large... Cardinal Spellman in Vietnam...

No Sir: You don't spit in the wind--and you never humiliate a conceited person...!!!

OH NO!!!

Dumb, boring old Me and My Big Mouth!!! What's next Mike???!!!

Posted by: Michael L. Wagner on 04/19/08 at 1:58 PM Respond

IT'S REALLY INCREDIBLE!!!--both our billion dollar embassy in Bagdad..., and the idea that we're not committed to "staying the course."

HE, HE, HE--those strict "Islamic Teachers" are considered pretty "hairy" and barbaric by our standards, and the opposite certainly applies too...

We're the Great Satan of the West--difficult to argue this...

In reality...--here one should consider alcohol and the Koran...

"At first, it was forbidden for Muslims to attend to prayers while intoxicated (4:43)."

"Then a later verse was revealed which said that alcohol contains some good and some evil, but that the evil was greater than the good (2:219)." (About.com: Why is alcohol forbidden in Islam?)

Furthermore, "...Intoxicants and gambiling...are of Satan's handiwork... (5:90)."

...On the other hand, the Koran says there are rivers of wine in Paradise...

THERE IT IS!!!

So..., where "Archbishop Juan Sandoval of Guadalajara, Mexico, has issued a public statement indicating his belief that Cardinal Kuan Jesus Posadas Ocampo was murdered in 1993 by police forces," (Catholic World News) doesn't one have to wonder if some of the Iraq muddle has to do with control of the country's drug traffic...

So..., one has to ask here--couldn't we put these new ultra-powerful (with drastic recourses coming out the you know what...) dealers out of business by legalizing certain recreational drugs...

Doctors could prescribe "researched doses" of cocaine (have you admiring God's handiwork...) but not crystal meth or heroine (can't having you communing directly with the Man, now can we...?).

Alcohol is easily turned into an addiction (unlike meth or heroine, which are pretty much instantly addicting...)--let's put such a leash on this too.

Sure, you can stop and pick up some beer after hot day's work--only it wouldn't be a six-pack until Friday...

Saddly, "the Iraq position" seems a lot like Sodom, where the officials and their followers were "schooled" to "go after" people who didn't share their views...

Posted by: Michael L. Wagner on 04/19/08 at 6:38 PM Respond