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The Effect of Shifting Expectations

The numbers out of Indiana show a narrowing race — the difference between the candidates is roughly 33,000 votes out of just under a million cast. That's a four percent lead for Hillary Clinton.

The response from the TV pundits: Is a two-point or three-point victory for Clinton effectively a loss? Does Clinton's massive loss in North Carolina and her tiny victory in Indiana mean that she needs to exit the race? Will superdelegates take her seriously after those results?

What's so interesting about this is that a week or two ago, a lot of polling showed Obama winning Indiana by one to five percent. Almost all of it showed him winning North Carolina by double digits. But Obama had such a miserable two weeks going into today's vote that the expectations shifted. Ironically, the beating Obama has taken recently may have helped him.

Update: Just want to add something quickly. The Clinton campaign surrogates on TV tonight are latching onto Michigan and Florida as their lifeline. If only Obama hadn't blocked a revote in Michigan and Floriday, they say, this would be an even race. I'm not sure that's true. If you assume Clinton nets 50-70 delegates in those two states (and that's being very generous), Clinton is still losing the pledged delegate count. That's how large Obama's lead is at the moment.

Comments

Hey People,

He was aided by the black people voteing for him..!!!
What would America say if the white people went around saying,. "Vote for me, I am the white guy..!!!"

Bill

Posted by: Bill Nigh on 05/06/08 at 8:07 PM Respond

He never asked for that you dirty troll.

Posted by: Michael Z. on 05/06/08 at 9:07 PM Respond

Bill Nigh,

You have, you are and will always be the element of our society that we must overcome. you racist.

Posted by: brightledge on 05/06/08 at 11:00 PM Respond

Soon, very soon we will have a brown planet.

Posted by: brightledge on 05/06/08 at 11:02 PM Respond

At some point during its coverage, CNN pointed out that Obama seems to have captured 39% of White women in Indiana, compared to 31% in Ohio, and 32% in Pennsylvania. Chalk it up to proximity to Illinois or the "ageing" of the Wright story if you wish.

I have my own theories about why Obama didn't "connect" with White working-class voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania (it has less to do with race than with internal power politics. You might note that a "disproportionate" number of Black Superdelegates has declared for Clinton) but it will be interesting to see what West Virginia and Kentucky have to say when they are up to bat. I predict that Obama will make significant inroads into this demographic he has not been able to "connect with."

The Bandwagon is starting to tune up.

Posted by: Egalitare on 05/07/08 at 4:22 AM Respond

The ultimate irony in Indiana is that Hillary's pathetic margin of victory was produced by Rush Limbaugh.

Posted by: Anthony St. John on 05/08/08 at 1:43 AM Respond