MotherJones Blog: Kentucky, Oregon: Measuring Sticks for Obama?

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Kentucky, Oregon: Measuring Sticks for Obama?

Okay, let's get down to business. Kentucky's 51 delegates and Oregon's 52 delegates are at stake tonight. If you follow politics at all you know that the polls predict a 30+ point win for Hillary Clinton in Kentucky and a 5-15 point win for Barack Obama in Oregon.

It's right around 8:00 pm and Clinton has already been declared the winner in Kentucky. With half the votes in, she's up by 20. Clinton will be speaking soon, for two reasons: (1) Obama will be sucking up all the oxygen later in the evening with a speech that isn't-but-kinda-is a victory speech for the race as a whole; and (2) Oregon's innovative vote-by-mail system means that results from that state may not be in until 11 pm eastern. Might as well strike while the iron is hot.

In this junior pundit's brain, these elections are a measuring stick for Obama. That's the important part of the night. Yes, he'll reach the magic number for a majority of the pledged delegates (3,253), and yes, that entitles him to claim, as his campaign did earlier, that the voters of the country have sent him an "unmistakable message" of support akin to, well, victory. But he's had this thing sown up for a while now. That's not new news.

Tonight's two elections, and the two remaining on June 3rd, and more valuable as a gauge for Obama's momentum. In Kentucky, we can see if his impending victory in the primary convinced a larger portion of those fabled working class whites to vote for him (I'm guessing no, for the record). In Oregon, we can see if he is finishing Clinton off among the coastal liberals he supposedly owns as a demographic. It may be tough to get an accurate picture out of Oregon, however, because the vote-by-mail system means many ballots were filled out earlier this month.

Nevertheless, these races are more about learning about Obama than they are about changing the race.

Comments

Obama is soon going to be indicted in the Rezko scandal. Chief among the charges against him will be 18 USC 1346 mail fraud honest services violations, particularly with regard to the legislative role he played in state board legislation.

However, the U.S. Attorney has plenty of other charges for Obama. I think he will be indicted along with Blagojevich shortly after Rezko is convicted.

If you want a detailed chronology of Obama's activities, there is a very detailed series of articles by Evelyn Pringle ("Curtain Time for Barack Obama") which can most easily be found at the link below. The next installment will detail Obama's role in the state board legislation:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0805/S00245.htm

Posted by: John Ryskamp on 05/20/08 at 5:24 PM Respond

First of all, I'm extremely impressed, Feeba, by the true spirit of democracy expressed in your comment. Over here in France where I live, the French have an expression, "rare perle" which means "rare pearl" to talk about something unusually valuable. And your comment certainly is!
To go from the sublime to -- not the ridiculous -- but the petty, since I am an English teacher as well as a writer, Jonathan, the word is "sewn" and not "sown". To "sew up" comes from the verb "sew" as to sew a hem, a seam or a button on a shirt. "Sow" is agricultural: to sprinkle seeds. Young men are traditionally said to sow their wild oats, just another sexist saying in our language which, unfortunately, controls our minds in ways we're not always conscious of. What Clinton is up against is much bigger than Obama.

Since the Obama campaign has succeeded in imposing the issue of racism over the issue of sexism, I'd like to add that another thing didn't change in election results. African American voters in Kentucky remained just as severely racially aligned as they have been in other states: 90% for Obama. The figures for the motivations of black voters being racially inspired are practically NEVER given in the polls, whereas a HUGE focus is made on the possible racially inspired voting behavior of whites. This is skewed reporting of the worst sort. It bodes ill for democracy.

Posted by: Kathy Giannini on 05/20/08 at 11:46 PM Respond

Obama will lose to McCain due to Pastor Wright. EuroAmericans believe that Obama hates them, so they will not vote for a hatemonger.

Posted by: Stan on 05/21/08 at 7:39 AM Respond

Speak for yourself Stan! I am EuroAmerican and you'd have to hold me at gunpoint to get me to vote for anyone but Obama.

Posted by: JP on 05/21/08 at 7:48 AM Respond

I am glad that others are starting to notice the RACISTS black voters who are voteing 90% for obama..!!!
I think the if 90% of whites were voteing for the white candidate, the blacks would be marching in the streets...!!!
How come the blacks get a pass on the obvious RACISTS attitudeds of the whole black culture..?

BIll

Posted by: Bill Nigh on 05/21/08 at 8:54 AM Respond

Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!
Its our time!

Do you STUPID white folks remember that slogan?

Where did it go?

Posted by: Chester Newton on 05/21/08 at 9:54 AM Respond

Do you STUPID white folks remember that slogan?

Where did it GO?

Ted is getting what he deserves. Lets just throw him off a BRIDGE, then act like we had nothing to do with it. Even though we show up at home SOAKING MFing wet.

John McCain is a GOD, barry is a DRUG user

Posted by: Sen Zuni on 05/21/08 at 10:46 AM Respond

Mothter Jones readers are idiots!

Do you STUPID white folks remember that slogan?

Where did it GO?

Ted is getting what he deserves. Lets just throw him off a BRIDGE, then act like we had nothing to do with it. Even though we show up at home SOAKING MFing wet.

Posted by: Jesse Helms on 05/21/08 at 11:00 AM Respond

Now boys, settle down. Obama was never down for the struggle like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. We don't respect him. Obama is a sexist like too many Black men( I know, I have experience, I will not go out with another one.) As a feminist, I would never vote for him. He makes McCain look like a real gentleman. I see that you White Boys have problems with Obama too. The Democrats will go down to defeat if they have Obama.

Posted by: Latasha T. on 05/21/08 at 12:05 PM Respond

It seems unbelievable that there has been little or no mention of this trial in the media. Do you think CNN, MSNBC, Meet the Press, and other networks have been told to keep silent. Additionally, I would like to know, how Senator Obama bought a 104, 000 mansion in Hyde Park, Chicago from Tony Resko? In this time when Americans are struggling to keep their homes--forclosures on the rise--how does Senator Obama get such a "sweet" deal from his mortgage/real estate dealer Mr. Tony Resko? I am ashamed of these so called media giants like Tim Russert, Chris Matthews, and the Obama campaign followers Candy Crowley, Mr. Gergen, and others for not probing through these issues and bringing them to the light.

Posted by: Charita F. on 05/21/08 at 4:48 PM Respond