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Obama in Iowa: On His Way, But Not Without Hurdles
Reflect for a moment on how serendipitous it is that Barack Obama is where he is today. As a 46-year-old half-black presidential candidate who was a newcomer to Washington and a believer in transparency and government reform, Obama's only natural message was one of change. He and his advisers decided not to modulate or moderate that message: every sign at every stop had a single word in bold type: "Change." The full sentence may have been "Change you can believe in," but there was one key word that was branded on everything the campaign said, did, and produced.
And wouldn't you know it, after eight years of disastrous leadership abroad, a lack of serious solutions to health care and economic challenges at home, and a thorough politicization and perversion of the federal government, voters were looking for exactly one thing. The same thing Obama was offering.
And now that he's got the primary wrapped up, Obama is smart enough not to change. In what could reasonably be seen as his first speech of the general campaign, Obama used the word "change" over twenty times Tuesday night in Des Moines, Iowa. Instead of fine-tuning his message to appeal to a general election audience, Obama is pulling John McCain and George Bush into his preexisting frame. As Obama tells it, McCain, with his long career in Washington and his willingness to embrace Bush Administration policies on taxes, health care, and the war in Iraq, is part of what the American people are so desperately seeking change from. The political gods would have a hard time deliberately crafting a political climate better suited to Obama's unique persona and message.
And so in the state where his unlikely but strangely inevitable presidential campaign began, Barack Obama moved to the next phase. He had kind words for Senator Clinton, calling her "one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for this office" and a woman who "has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and yours will come of age." He congratulated her on her victory in Kentucky but he made it clear that the time for a transition had come. He reminisced about the wintertime Iowa caucuses that legitimized him as a candidate and said, "tonight in the fullness of spring… we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for President of the United States."
John McCain was not treated as well as Senator Clinton.
"The Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 2% of Americans that once bothered Senator McCain's conscience are now his only economic policy. The Bush health care plan that only helps those who are already healthy and wealthy is now John McCain’s answer to the 47 million Americans without insurance and the millions more who can’t pay their medical bills. The Bush Iraq policy that asks everything of our troops and nothing of Iraqi politicians is John McCain’s policy too, and so is the fear of tough and aggressive diplomacy that has left this country more isolated and less secure than at any time in recent history."
And using John McCain's ongoing lobbyist mess as an opportunity to draw a contrast between himself and the Arizona Senator – both men who decry Washington's influence-peddling culture – Obama said, "The lobbyists who ruled George Bush's Washington are now running John McCain's campaign, and they actually had the nerve to say that the American people won't care about this. Talk about out of touch!"
But in one key respect, Obama is out of touch. It has been repeated so many times it has seemingly congealed into one of this country's greatest and most unshakable truths: Obama has a problem with white, working class voters.
In Kentucky — the heart of the Appalachia region that Obama has struggled so mightily with — the Illinois Senator lost white voters 72-23 to Hillary Clinton, a massive 49 point spread. He lost voters making $50,000 or less 67-29, a 38 point margin.
We can used Tennessee, Ohio, and Indiana — three states that border Kentucky — as measuring sticks for Obama's evolving support among white, working class voters. Tennessee, just south of Kentucky, voted as part of the Super Tuesday primaries on February 5th. Obama lost whites in the Volunteer State 67-26. That's a 41 point spread. He lost the under $50,000 crowd 55-39, a 16 point margin.
Ohio voted a month later, on March 4. There, Obama lost whites by 30. He lost voters making less than $50,000 by 14. Indiana was a month after that, on May 6. There, Obama lost whites by 20 points and actually tied among under-$50,000s.
So as the primary race has gone by, Obama has lost whites in the Appalachia region by 41, 30, 20, and today by 49. He lost those making less than $50,000 by 16, 14, 0, and today by 38.
There are two possible explanations: Obama was slowly making gains among white, working class whites until reversals in Kentucky and West Virginia (which had numbers similar to Kentucky's), or Kentucky and West Virginia are somehow unique, even among their neighbors.
To test that hypothesis, we can look at the percentage of people in each state who admitted in exit polls that race was an important factor in their decision on who to vote for. In Tennessee, 21 percent of respondents said race was important. They split 52-42 for Clinton, possibly because Tennessee has a substantial African-American minority. In Ohio, 20 percent of respondents said race was important. They split 59-39 for Clinton. In Indiana, 16 percent said race was important. 53-47 for Clinton.
But now look at West Virginia and Kentucky. Twenty-two percent of West Virginia exit poll respondents said race mattered in their vote. Eighty-two percent of them voted for Clinton. In Kentucky the numbers are roughly the same. Twenty-one percent said race mattered; 81 percent went for Clinton. These are voters in dominantly white states so open with their unease about voting for a black candidate that they will admit it to a complete stranger asking them questions outside a polling location.
Barack Obama's campaign believes that Obama can expand the Democratic electorate — independents and young people will put votes in his column that members of his party don't usually get. But the campaign may have to concede that Obama loses some voters as well. It may simply be the case that for some, Obama's candidacy represents a change too great.
Comments
let the race begin.
i win either way. i live in az and mc war is my senator. if he wins he leaves az now is there a way we can rid ourselves of kyle the other war monger.
if mc war loses then i get him back.
the man that crashed 5 planes in training now want to be president. go figure.
Hooray for Iowa!
Obama comin back to his base.
Posted by: Christian on 05/20/08 at 11:56 PM Respond
"it has seemingly congealed into one of this country's greatest and most unshakable truths: Obama has a problem with white, working class voters."
Really? "Greatest"? "Unshakable"? "Congealed"? Working class whites voting for Clinton over Obama doesn't mean that Obama has a problem with that group--just that, by and large, that group prefers Clinton. But the presidency isn't a contest between Obama and Clinton. It's a contest between Obama and McCain.
Accordingly, Obama only has a problem with white working class voters if polling or something else indicates that they prefer McCain. Report on that, if you must, but don't create hyperboles out of irrelevant information.
Posted by: Zack on 05/21/08 at 9:07 AM Respond
Wake up and smell the stench. The corporate controlled media doesn't really care if Obama or McCain is appointed the presidency. Either will assure that: Bush/Cheney/Rezko past massive looting of Iraq will be covered up; and pull off Cheney's next big energy ripoff they both support:
1. WHY isn't THE MEDIA providing NEWS Coverage of The BIGGEST---ENERGY ISSUE? i.e. Are WE going to LET Cheney, GE, Westinghouse et al, Build 29 New nuclear power plants, or Not?
ANSWER: The TV MEDIA isn't providing NEWS coverage of one of the BIGGEST ISSUES of our time --BECAUSE: the BUILDERS of those nuke power plants will be GE, Westinghouse, Excelon Corp. of Illinois, Entergy; 3 Consortiums of nuke industy companies...
... and .... GE owns NBC/MSNBC, Westinghouse owns CBS...PLUS-(GE, 2nd largest corp. on the planet) & Westinghouse have $BILLIONS of Adverising $$$ to spend in EVERY FORM OF MEDIA they don't own.)
i.e. The NEWS you GET to SEE & HEAR on TV is the "news" GE/Westinghouse et al...WANT You to SEE and Hear. THEY do NOT want YOU to KNOW Anything about The Cheney Energy Bill.
2. What's the Cheney Energy Bill about?
ANSWER: The Cheney Energy Bill passed in 2005 (H.R. 6). McCain Voted FOR it. Obama Voted FOR it. Clinton Voted AGAINST it. (i.e. McCain & Obama already SOLD OUT to the nuke industry in 2005. Clinton did not: will not.)
The Cheney Energy Bill decreed that US Taxpayers would REPAY the Nuke Building LOANS that DEFAULT. (The Congressional Budget Office rated the risk of default at 50% or greater.) No new nukes were built for 30 years because the banks wouldn't loan the money--too risky.
Posted by: B from Bloomington on 05/21/08 at 9:39 AM Respond
I hate those damn rednecks. They say race matters, but they only focus on the black half of Obama. What about the white half? Must a person be 100% white euro american to get the vote? Is it even possible to be 100% white anymore?
When Clinton decides to quit I hope she keeps sending the message that her supporters should vote for Obama instead of McCain.
Posted by: J on 05/21/08 at 10:34 AM Respond
Zack,
That line was tongue-in-cheek. Deliberately over the top, so as to mimic the seriousness with which TV pundits present Obama's white working class problem.
As you can see in the numbers that follow, things are more nuanced than they let on.
Posted by: Jonathan Stein on 05/21/08 at 11:22 AM Respond
I didn't care for the perspective of this article. It assumes that respondents to the "race matters" question were being honest. If about 20% answered yes "to a complete stranger," there must be many more who didnt answer yes for the exact same reason.
This article suggests that Obama can't pull the working class white vote in these regions, but doesn't discuss the white working class vote in other regions that he did win. I suspect that the results speak more to geography than class.
I can't believe this article is in Mother Jones.
Posted by: d on 05/21/08 at 12:08 PM Respond
I'm a white working class voter that earns less than 50K a year and I'm voting for Obama. Am I the exception to the rule? I don't think so, because all the guys I've talked to here at work are voting for Obama.
Posted by: Steve on 05/21/08 at 12:23 PM Respond
glad to see someone else that really knows what's going on
Posted by: neil Redlien on 05/21/08 at 12:40 PM Respond
the column is right on target.
Posted by: robert on 05/21/08 at 1:05 PM Respond
i am white and i will vote for obama,look at what the white cronies that rule now have done to this nation and the rest of the world.
Posted by: joe on 05/21/08 at 1:54 PM Respond
I think this "white working class" situation is an absolute Republican swiftboat tactic used by the pundits to fill in time and look important. Read the facts before you write anything as untrue as this.
Posted by: P. Buob on 05/21/08 at 2:01 PM Respond
Hillary Clinton is a loyal Democrat and IF she doesn't get the nomination, she'll definitely encourage her supporters to vote for her present opponent.
The hitch is that a lot of Clinton supporters are not loyal Democrats. She doesn't own them. Feminists may vote for Mckinney in order to make a staement.
Posted by: Kathy Giannini on 05/21/08 at 2:17 PM Respond
OREGON proved Obama has NO PROBLEM with white working class voters. ALL white working class voters in the United States should vote in the General Election for Obama, because McCain will be another Bush term, McCain has made that pretty clear. McCain is perfectly happy with what Bush has done, and since McCain has admitted that he has not got a working knowledge of economics, it is inevitable that McCain will continue the Bush Regime, after all McCain doesn't see any reason not to continue the same regime. As far as he can see, they have done well. But we see it differently. I am of the opinion that the whole regime should be impeached and all those who assist them.
Karl Rove, who should be in jail, now counsels FOX, the propaganda channel, and is pushing Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is definitely a RIGHT WING favorite and you know you are voting for the right person when you vote for Obama just because Karl Rove would rather have Hillary Clinton. Karl Rove knows that if Hillary Clinton gets elected he has nothing to worry about, just like George Bush had nothing to worry about when Nancy Pelosi was placed as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Bush's DLC Democrat, Nancy Pelosi, has protected the Bush cartel and Bush's DLC Democrat, Hillary Clinton, will do the same. Hopefully, Obama will see fit to bring some justice for the nation when he takes office.
Posted by: MarthaA on 05/21/08 at 3:03 PM Respond
I wonder why working class whites have a problem with Obama..and that's how it should read. They have a problem with him; he doesn't have a problem with them; if he does, we wouldn't hear about it in any case. But do his policy views in any way disadvantage working-class whites? I don't see that. So, it's just racism. And that is really sad. I had a boss who was black, and he was a very mean boss, and obviously prejudiced; everyone who moved up in the company was black. When the company lost the contract for my post, I lost my job. But some of the black people that worked there were simply moved to other posts (I'm a Security Officer). I felt an urge towards racism, but I stamped it out. Racism begets racism, just like hatred causes more hatred. It's an ugly thing, and we should all be ashamed that we still haven't moved past this.
Finally, it's not going to matter all that much who wins the Presidency, because this country is now controlled by multi-national corporations: the people who control the FED, and the military industrial complex. The House Judicial Committee can't even get people to show up! When we let the President get away with serious crimes, and nothing is done, the whole system begins to erode. Both Bush and Cheney should have been tried before an Impeachment hearing. America is just about completely broke, and it's because we've tried to run this country on a war economy. War can be an economic boost, like in WW2; but now we import most of our oil, and production is peaking all over the world. We have global climate change. We have a devaluing dollar. We have people who have worked for a company for 30, 40 years, and one day they lose both their job and their pension!! This kind of thing would never happen if this was still the United States of America that the Founders intended it to be.
You can't sustain an economy based soley on war; what happens is that some are making absurd amounts of money, while the rest spiral towards poverty. When you ask your Reps about NAFTA and these trade agreements, they point to GNP growth; but they don't point out that only a handful are profitting from this 'growth.'
Unless we dratically change course--which isn't going to happen--America is doomed. And the rich may believe they can isolate themselves from the rest of us, but eventually, they will either have to kill all of us off (and then who will wait on them, and do all the dirty work?) or we will breach their strong-holds.
Americans must NOT accept their RFID chips, must not accept further slavery. We all have to make a stand. If we're willing to die for liberty, then we may win, in the end. If we are so attached to life, that we will accept any form of it, no matter how unjust, then the rich will win.
But in the end, we all lose, because this planet is a living organism, and it's going to shake us off like a bunch of fleas, for polluting it, and robbing it of its resources, without giving back. No one can escape the fury of Nature and God. And if these war criminals don't get their Nuremburg trial here, they will get it on the next plane.
Posted by: Alan on 05/21/08 at 3:10 PM Respond
BTW, not just white working class voters should vote for Obama, but all voters who work for a living of any class will be better served by voting for Obama all the way through the General Election.
Liberalism is innovation. Innovation is needed today and Obama is an innovator and will be called in the future "The Great Innovator".
Posted by: MarthaA on 05/21/08 at 3:12 PM Respond
Let the RACE begin is right! Unfortunately the rest of the country is soon going to be at war with these backward states, and rightfully so. Wake up people! How can one oversee or ignore 21% of people leaving a polling location and saying they didn't vote for Obama because he is black? Imagine how many people didn't admit to it! We have got to mobilize to these states and fight the power if Obama is going to get elected!
Posted by: Larry on 05/21/08 at 4:25 PM Respond
This is asinine. Clearly, you are caught up in Clinton rhetoric or Repug pundits.
Obama's "problem" is with older, white, RACIST voters.
Clinton has only prevailed in southern parts of the country in which pervasive racism is still ubiquitous. Sadly, Clinton jumped on the code words & continues to pander to said racists.
Please, write something worth reading...
Posted by: kelly on 05/21/08 at 4:37 PM Respond
As a long-time white anti-racist, I'm convinced that racism is still far more ingrained in the American psyche than most people realise, in spite of significant changes over the past five decades. This racism manifests more openly in white working class simply because they feel more threatened, given the nature of our imperialist economy. That's not to say that middle and upper middle class Americans don't have the same, if less observable, attitudes. Sexism, of course, is equally rampant - maybe more so. (PS - I'm voting Obama because of the possibility of change, not that I'm expecting all that much.)
Posted by: Don on 05/21/08 at 5:24 PM Respond
Racism is just as deep as it has ever been, in fact according to the Southern Poverty Law Center (the leading group working against the most virulent forms of racism) says the number of groups and the number of incidents involving racism have seen an upward move in recent years after a slow decline. It's not PC to say racists stuff now, so people resort to all kinds of code words to convey their meaning - and both the Clintons know what these code words are and have been using them.
As far as discussing the "Rust Belt" I read a post from Robert Creamer on HuffPo last week where he said having a discussion like this is a waste of time. These people will all vote Rethug in the general election so dissecting how many of the racists voted for the woman while holding their noses because they couldn't stomach the black man is useless. When it comes down to it - the white man will win every time. No matter what. Women and persons of color need not apply in those states.
Because of Obama's inclusive and 50-state campaign, his community organizing skills which have energized voter registration and yes, participation, there are a lot of so-called "red" states that are now in play and are his for the taking. Places like Montana and Idaho, a lot of the South, and yes he will win California and New York along with all the rest of the blue coasts. The new states in play will easily take the place of the Rust Belt states (that neither candidate would win) and that Dems have not been winning for decades. Those red-neck racists in the Rust Belt are the so-called Reagan Democrats - and they have never left the Rethug party. Don't kid yourself, and forget listening to these discussions about how Obama needs them. He. Does. Not.
Posted by: lokywoky bitter hussein on 05/21/08 at 5:52 PM Respond
The Southern Poverty Law Center, while it does amazing work, is not necessarily in touch with generations that came of age after the late 1970s. The lens of race just doesn't apply in the same way for the average person under the age of 30, educated or not.
Obama is clearly motivating younger voters in a way nobody in at least a generation. He's also motivating a lot of African-Americans who have never voted before. And a good percentage of those working-class white voters will come around in November.
Obama doesn't need a clear majority of white working class voters. No Democrat has gotten that majority since 1964, when African-Americans shifted en masse to the Democrats and the racists jumped over to the GOP.
Obama's been rewriting the rules and changing the game. This year, he will prove the racists are ultimately no longer relevant in electing a president.
Posted by: Michael Heister on 05/21/08 at 6:54 PM Respond
a half black/White has become a presidential candidate. and we are still separating black and white? is that how it works?
Posted by: Lisa on 05/22/08 at 5:41 AM Respond
The Democratic Party will lose with Obama. In a close election, just a few voters in a number of states, can turn it. Obama has neglected enough EuroAmericans to cost the Party the election. His mentor of 20 years, instilled in Obama latent hatred of White People(read his book and it comes out, e.g. hates White grandmother and mother, loves deadbeat African Moslem dad).
Posted by: White Pride World Wide on 05/22/08 at 6:30 AM Respond
We've always had white men in the White House. Obama is a half-white man--isn't that only half a change?
As far as why West Virginians voted for Clinton: The last good times we had came under someone named Clinton. It may be just that simple. I've had it with being called racist by idiot pundits and uninformed, lazy pseudo-journalists who have not bothered to do any homework. When I was at my county court house the night of our primary, the consistent comment I heard from Clinton supporters was, "We just don't know anything about him. He hasn't proven himself and he hasn't paid his dues." THAT'S the issue with Obama. Let him earn this position if he wants to be president. Hillary certainly has. In this blue-collar, working-class state, where our individual economies are woefully inadequate, we believe in people EARNING their way. Read some history and learn about the people of Appalachia before dissing us any more. Why is it still acceptable in America to laugh at Appalachians and be openly misogynistic? Oh, THAT's okay. . .
Perhaps race is a small factor everywhere--but even according to the factually inadequate mainstream media, THE issue in WV is the economy. We've been overexploited and deliberately misunderstood for decades in this region; apparently, it continues.
Mary Harris would be railing against these kinds of intellectually limited comments in a magazine that purports to reflect her vision of all workers having a respected voice. I'm guessing from the comments that most of the people don't even know who she was or what she represented. How sad.
Proud Appalachian Woman
Posted by: Dana on 05/22/08 at 7:19 AM Respond
I think this column is too simplistic. It's becoming clear that Obama doesn't so much have a 'white voter' problem as an Appalachia problem and John Kerry and Al Gore had exactly the same 'problem.' However, Obama has shown himself to be a leader who can take adversity and make it into opportunity (as he did with Reverend Wright when he made an historic speech about race). Sen. Jim Webb has said that if someone could build a populist revolution with a coalition of 'Scots-Irish voters' who have been left behind by our society and blacks, who have been excluded, it would be unstoppable. These 'white' voters are the ones Obama talked about in his speech on race. He clearly understands their point of view. Let's support him in building that coalition and not trash these voters as dumb racists.
Posted by: medora on 05/22/08 at 7:28 AM Respond
When the primaries began, I said to myself that I would be happy with Clinton, Obama or McCain as president. I saw respectable qualities and competence in each, but most important to me was the fact that Bush would be gone. Now I have changed my opinion of McCain, largely because of his willingness to align himself with Bush on too many significant issues, especially the Iraq war and tax cuts for the wealthy, while ignoring the clamor for health care reform. I suspect (or maybe it's just a hope) that the white working class voters of whom the article speaks will realize that it is their children who will be used as cannon fodder if we continue to espouse war and the threat of war as the basis of our foreign policy, and their tax dollars that will provide for the corporate welfare, and their health care that will continue to be compromised for the sake of maintaining the benefits of free entreprise for the investor class. Even racists must have sense enough to see when their own interests are being sacrificed.
And another thing, how come those racists would be willing to vote for a guy who fathered a Vietnamese baby? How quickly we forget the lessons of the 2000 election.
If Obama would just wear his American flag lapel pin, he should have this election in the bag.
Posted by: lawyerfan on 05/22/08 at 1:07 PM Respond
Well, if Mother Jones is backing Obama all is lost. Does anyone do research anymore? Check out Obama's advisors. He is no progressive.Race is a straw issue, provided by Alexrod for the purposes of distraction. As usual Hillary's women supporters are left out of the equation. It is all about race. This magazine should change it's name.
Posted by: show me on 05/26/08 at 9:46 AM Respond
Although Hillary has a hard time with honesty and consistency, I'm deepely disturbed by Obama's membership in a church that seems to focus more on racial division than it does on racial harmony. Obama is an articulate speaker but his platitudes are just that and nothing more. I believe he is as phony as Hillary and will most likely vote for Ralph Nader this election.
Posted by: Eugene on 05/27/08 at 12:57 PM Respond
Inclusiveness is alway new, finding how to do it is hard to come by. Even look how long it took to organize the miners before John L. Lewis came along.
Then Lewis did it only by convincing the mine owners that with the union the mine owners would know what they were getting, as long as the miners were gaining something inch by inch. That's how it works in these parts. The message is that
we won't give up our prejudices until we know what we are getting back for giving them up.
Posted by: GPFrank on 05/30/08 at 8:23 PM Respond
OBAMA'S NOT THE ONE.
SEE THE TRUTH AT
WWW DOT NIGGERMANIA DOT WS
Posted by: TABINGINS911 on 06/01/08 at 12:33 PM Respond
I can give you 2 words; reasons I'm not for obama--HEALTH CARE!! The costs in this country of health care are immoral and ridiculou8s. And, juast buying in "groups" still panders to an industry that should not BE an industry. Neither should war.But that's the good'ole US for ya...I did Work Study in W. Europe so dont tell me Univ. HV "doesnt work".Hillary wasnt doin' iot either, but w/Obama, 15m people will get nothing and 20,000 will die this yr. alone. Shame on liberals for not pushing this, and it's why I'm voting Socialist--not cause Obama's daddy was from Africa. Hey, lets say someone's a bigot or even "sits on the fence"--does yelling "racist" all day change it? It has to be changed with ACTIONS and exp. That's not something I see out of Obama yet. And stop feelin' so sorry for yourselves and cuttin' on past Dem. Pres.--unless you wanna repeal all that stuff from the 60's--y'know-the 18 y.o. vote? The draft? Welconme to Baghdad!!!
Posted by: KDelphi on 06/01/08 at 5:08 PM Respond
In the General election the majority of theWhite electorate will not vote for Obama for president. That's the truth. Democrats will never get the WHITE House again.
Posted by: wayne on 06/03/08 at 6:32 AM Respond
John
This is a fair article and as you suggest 'nuanced'!!That of course is the key to so much , isn't it? It is a reality that at this moment in time we have within us many needs but the need to maintain racial 'genes'is a very instinctual one and can only be transcended when the society as a whole is 'cerebral' enough to figure out that this may be detrimental to other life supporting needs:decentjobs,free health care provision , free from 'standardized testing' real education,safety from external attack. Are we there yet?
Posted by: Therese Persaud on 06/05/08 at 9:19 AM Respond
My dear old Dad, an ardent Republican from AZ, told me years ago, McCain was not to be trusted... and Senator Goldwater agreed! He would be voting form Obama is he was alive today! His daughters, grandaughters and great grandchildren will too!
Posted by: Jna on 06/09/08 at 1:32 PM Respond
My dear old Dad, an ardent Republican from AZ, told me years ago, McCain was not to be trusted... and Senator Goldwater agreed! He would be voting form Obama is he was alive today! His daughters, grandaughters and great grandchildren will too!
Posted by: Jna on 06/09/08 at 1:33 PM Respond
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Posted by: researcher on 05/20/08 at 10:19 PM Respond