Fun With Excel: How Has Age Played In Presidential Elections Since 1789?

There's already been some good examination of how much the age gap between John McCain and Barack Obama will matter in November. ThingsYoungerThanMcCain.com, for example, is doing the yeoman's work of listing the many, many items—like lubricated condoms and the LP record—that are younger than McCain.

And the folks at the Pew Research Center conducted a poll in February that found 26 percent of registered voters think John McCain is too old to be president (the number jumps to 32 percent when voters are told that McCain is 71).

We know that Barack Obama will be 47 on election day and McCain will be 72, meaning that 2008 will see a larger age gap between the top two presidential candidates than any of the previous 55 presidential elections. So here's my question: how has age played in presidential elections in the past? Let's look at a chart (takeaways at the bottom):

Takeaways: Bob Dole was really old when he ran in '96. In 1896 William Jennings Bryan was really young—just 36—and he lost. (Does this explain why McCain compared Obama to Bryan last week?) Sixty-five-year-old James Buchanan administered a spanking of young 43-year-old whippersnapper John Fremont in 1856.

Biggest takeaway: Statistically, candidates who are slightly older—by an average of 2.2 years—have been winners.

Readers: do you see any meaningful trends that I've failed to notice here?
(h/t to Cape Breton University's Stewart McCann for the data)

Comments

You wrote: "Statistically, candidates who are slightly older... win." But you've just taken a mean of the data. A statistician would scratch his head at that statement (as this amateur one did). I don't see a direct link to McCann's table else I'd try some analysis on my own, but just by running down the data it looks to me like there's no statistically significant takeaway here.

Posted by: Sean Dongre on 06/10/08 at 1:52 PM Respond

McCain is old -- Reagan was old. Reagan had Alzheimer's and possibly McCain has Alzheimer's as well, since McCain keeps flip flopping, undoubtedly because McCain can't remember what he has previously stated.

McCain is McSame -- it's all he can do.

Posted by: MarthaA on 06/10/08 at 9:21 PM Respond

McCain is clearly senile. I heard he has used that tired old "insult" that I thought was dead; he accused Obama of being a 'tax and spend Democrat". That after the spending spree of the Bush presidency and Republican congress running up the highest deficits, and highest federal debt in our history.

What a moron! Don't vote for no "tax and spend" democrat, vote for a tax cuttin', higher spendin' 'publican!

Posted by: DaveD on 06/11/08 at 4:18 AM Respond

seems to me the press is offering a corination of obama...critisize him at your own risk, this is a sham...write in hillary, enough already, i hate these choses

Posted by: rick on 06/11/08 at 1:55 PM Respond

I feel somewhat of an interloper, not, thankfully, being an American. However the choice of President will impact on, not only my country, but the whole world.

So who should you choose?

From a dispassionate perspective I see two choices.

McCain has experience and knowledge gained over a long
time. Is that experience relevant to a progressive future?
Does his past experiences hold any knowledge that would benefit the world, or does it mean his value is in being able to maneuver with the same dexterity to continue the machinations of the past corporate controlled administration?

Considering the need for a break with the last ten years so that a NEW era can, at least, be given a chance to
begin. I see no better opportunity than to choose a young, and certainly different,candidate in the personage of Obama. I am not suggesting for one moment that he would be my choice if others such as Kucinich, or Nader were remotely a possibility. Beggars can't be choosers. Believe me the world is really begging you to make a reasoned, sensible choice, not one made from emotional, bias, or even blind "Party" affiliation.

If Americans want their country to move away from the universal hatred it has engendered in recent years I feel a NEW beginning is needed.

Your Call.

tomedgar@halenet.com.au

Posted by: Tom Edgar on 06/12/08 at 12:20 AM Respond