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The Campaign Goes Christian

The first joint appearance of the general election season is tomorrow night. You've probably heard nothing about it. You'll probably hear nothing about it.

Barack Obama and John McCain will both travel to Lake Forest, CA, tomorrow night for the Saddleback Civil Forum at Saddleback Church, one of America's preeminent megachurches. (Today is the last day of the Obama family's Hawaiian vacation.) The candidates will sit down with Rick Warren, Saddleback's pastor and the author of The Purpose-Driven Life, to talk about global poverty, HIV/AIDS, and climate change. The topics will be a welcome departure, from Obama's point of view, from the standard "values voters" issues of abortion and gay marriage.

The forum should be interesting for two reasons. First, it will be an opportunity to test my theory that Obama should do well in head-to-head events with McCain, and that, as such, regular town hall events would have been good for Obama, in contradiction to what the Obama camp apparently believes.

Second, the Christian demographic is very much in play in this election. John McCain is crushing Barack Obama among evangelicals, who seem to think that being a Democrat and being a respectable Christian are mutually exclusive. Last month's NBC/WSJ poll put the gap at 64%-24%. (In 2004, Bush won that demo 8-2 over Kerry.) But Obama is doing surprisingly well among other Christians. The Washington Post and the Washington Times report that young evangelicals, concerned about global poverty, social justice issues, and the health of the planet, are considering Obama seriously. This, despite the fact that they probably don't know Obama has introduced a bill to address global poverty and is one of the Senate's leaders on the issue.

Furthermore, the Barna Group, a Christian research group, recently found that of the 19 "faith segments" it polled, only evangelicals lean toward McCain. Non-evangelical born-again Christians lean Obama 43% to 31% — if those numbers hold, it will be the first time in two decades the born-again vote has gone to the Democrat. "Notional Christians," folks who consider themselves Christians but are not born again, favor Obama by an even wider margin, 44% to 28%. Obama also wins non-Christians, atheists, and agnostics. This represents a massive opportunity for Obama.

An additional factor: John McCain is unwilling to talk about his faith publicly, is less vocally pro-life than President Bush, and supports stem cell research, all factors that could depress evangelical turnout. McCain may own evangelicals as a religious group, but they may be smaller this year than in the past.

But let's be frank. Who wins which religious group is unlikely to be affected by Saturday evening's forum. It's a Saturday after all, meaning that even the day-after coverage won't leak into the work week. And the Olympics are on, with Michael Phelps' quest for a record eight gold medals culminating on Saturday night. How much oxygen will there be left over for a forum on religion, AIDS, and global poverty? Not much, I suspect. It may take a gaffe, a lie, or a heated argument to really make news at Saddleback.

Comments

Hey Jon, I'm pretty sure that 64%-24% is the split among white evangelicals, not evangelicals as a whole. It's a bit disturbing how often that qualifier is left off, given how many evangelicals are black.

Also, R.I.P. Bernie Mac.

Posted by: Dan on 08/15/08 at 11:27 AM Respond

OBAMA OVERTHROWN BY REALITY

1. Obama is not overthrown without first overthrowing his ideas.
2. The failings of Obama’s friends do not overthrow Obama.
3. Obama is not overthrown without taking into account both his failures and successes.
4. The strong case for Obama is not overthrown by the weak case against him.

Posted by: Jeugenen on 08/15/08 at 1:08 PM Respond

Vote for Ralph Nader for real change. Obama is a hypocrite, just like Clinton.

Posted by: Sharon on 08/15/08 at 3:53 PM Respond

OBAMA’S DILEMMA AND CHRISTIAN HOLY WAR AGAINST HERETICAL ABORTION
Government sanctioned child-sacrifice by women, Roe vs. Wade, is subversive to the traditional humane and Christian culture of the America People. This perverse legislation was instigated and popularized in America by defeated Marxist refugees, originating from Nazi Germany and Marxist Russia, notorious for their subversive contempt for Christianity, the nuclear family, patriotism, and the Constitution.
Along with the growing political shift towards the Christian pro-life movement, Obama is supporting Born Alive Infant Protection Act legislation, while continuing to pragmatically accept Roe vs. Wade. Not until the time that united Catholic, Protestant, and Mormon church leaders lead crusading battles against the condemned heretical supporters of pre-meditated murder by abortion, can Roe vs. Wade finally be politically overturned by the supreme will of Christian America.
In the wonderfully escalating Cultural War, the leading Neo-Con and Neo-Lib abortionists shall ultimately be destroyed by whatever Constitutional means necessary, for their notorious roles in causing the sacrificial killing of over 40 million American children.

Posted by: Jeugenen on 08/21/08 at 4:31 PM Respond

Jeugenen, I find that your analysis about the enemies of our Christian way of life to be correct. Obama is our hope. McCain is a hypocrite. McCain is the puppet of the failed Democrat Lieberman.

Posted by: Kristina on 08/21/08 at 6:49 PM Respond

OBAMA UNITING AND PARADIGM SHIFTING IN THE AMERICAN CULTURAL WAR
Obama is politically uniting Blacks and Whites, Christians and Muslims, Kennedy Liberals and Reagan Conservatives, Europeans and Americans; millions of Podhoretz Neo-Cons and the Leiberman Neo-Libs are screaming the screams of damned, “Crucify him!”; and the World is singing, “God Bless America”.

Posted by: Jeugenen on 08/22/08 at 11:13 AM Respond

Jeugenen, you understand the influence of the Jewish Likud cabal very well.

Posted by: Horst W. on 08/22/08 at 11:46 AM Respond