Report from Las Vegas: Obama Inching Ahead As a “Recession-Proof” Local Economy Falls Behind

These days, the city that lives off the fat of high-stakes risk is also suffering its consequences. Las Vegans can no longer deny the fact that their major industry is not, as so many once claimed, immune to financial downturns. Casino traffic and income in Nevada are declining. (According to one theory, while people still gamble when they’re broke, they do it closer to home.) The foreclosure crisis has hit this state hard; you can now drive by subdivisions in which a majority of the houses look dark and uninhabited. New arrivals are finding that they can furnish their homes with what’s been thrown away by departing residents.

The latest polls are showing Obama pulling ahead of McCain in Nevada. Sunday’s Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason Dixon poll of likely voters has 47 percent for Obama, 45 percent for McCain, and 6 percent undecided. According to Hugh Jackson, who runs an excellent local progressive blog, the Las Vegas Gleaner, these local polls are notoriously unreliable. And the narrow point spread may be statistically insignificant. Still Congressional Quarterly’s election map just shifted Nevada from the “toss up” category to “leaning Obama.” And there’s certainly been a big change from the Review-Journal’s poll two months ago, which had McCain leading Obama 46 percent to 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

Key to the results here election will be how independents vote. They could amount to as much as 40 percent, but their makeup is wildly divergent , and includes Greens as well as libertarians. Latinos, widely considered the sleeping giant in this election, make up around 20 percent of the registered vote, and Obama has been pouring resources into registration here with special attention to Latinos. Then there are the old people, another 20 to 25 percent, who are likely to break for McCain, though it’s anyone’s guess by how much. What matters here, as elsewhere, is who actually gets themselves into voting booths on November 4. And as I've written elsewhere, here in Nevada, as elsewhere, there are plenty of efforts underway to keep those numbers down.

Comments

PERCEPTION IS NOT NECESSARILY REALITY ... DON'T BELIEVE THE POLLS ...
Obama supporters act as if the polls are a true reflection of what's going to happen on November 4th. When you don't have an actual record to run on ... and all you can do is point out problems, and blame others, as Obama has, you have to rely on gimmicks that have nothing to do with your actual ability to lead ... like accusations of racism ad nauseam ... like early voting ...busing and indoctrinating homeless people on the way to the polls ... photo ops with big crowds ... spending 4 to 1 on advertising ... having the media in the tank ... having Hollywood in the tank, having Acorn in the tank ... and, having 98% of all black voters in the tank. But, all of these things are nothing more than a fabricated perception. They have nothing to do with a person's experience, or ability to lead. They just reveal a candidate who will say, or do anything to get elected. That's why the Obamabots are so worried. That's why Obama is telling his disciples not to get over confident. That's why the Obama campaign tries real hard to make it look like Obama has already won ... just like they did in the run against Hillary in the primaries. I happen to believe there are legions of people who are going to vote for McCain on November 4th ... unlike the 'in your face' Obama supporters, November 4th is when the McCain supporters will express themselves. Keep America safe and strong, elect McCain/Palin on November 4th.

Report from Las Vegas: Obama Inching Ahead As a “Recession-Proof” Local Economy Falls Behind

Comments

ARCHIVE

RECENT COMMENTS

THE CURRENT ISSUE

SEARCH MOTHER JONES

PHOTO ESSAYS

TODAY ON...

SPECIAL REPORTS

INTERVIEWS

LETTERS

BLOG LINKS

Blog Reader Project Survey

IN PRINT

DONATE TODAY