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Subprime 1-2-3

News: Don't understand credit default swaps? Don't worry—neither does Congress. Herewith, a step-by-step outline of the subprime risk betting game.

July/August 2008 Issue


Subprime borrower: Has a few overdue credit card bills; goes to a storefront lender owned by major bank; takes out a $100,000 home-equity loan at 11 percent interest

Lending bank: Assuming housing prices will only go up, and that investors will want to buy mortgage loan packages, makes as many subprime loans as it can

Investment bank: Packages subprime mortgages into bundles called collateralized debt obligations, or cdos, then sells those cdos to eager investors. Goes to insurer to get protection for those investors, thus passing the default risk to the insurer through a "credit default swap."

Insurer: Thinking that default risk is low, agrees to cover more money than it can pay out, in exchange for a premium

Rating agency: On basis of original quality of loans and insurance policy they are "wrapped" in, issues a rating signaling certain slices of the cdo are low risk (aaa), medium risk (bbb), or high risk (ccc)

Investor: Borrows more money from investment bank to load up on cdo slices; makes money from interest payments made to the "pool" of loans. No one loses—as long as no one tries to cash in on the insurance.


Casey Miner is a Senior Editorial Fellow at Mother Jones


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If you are thinking this is an elaborate Ponzi scheme, with no underlying value, you are right. Such a house of cards in down when the borrower has some interference in ability to pay, or there is any other intervening factor. It is high-risk gambling with no ability on the part of the players to really determine risk or control it. Thus the current melt-down, which will end like all the financial frauds of the last 100 years--with a lot more poor people and a few fabulously rich.
Posted by:John James KavanaghJuly 3, 2008 4:03:10 AMRespond ^
Exactly right. However, you left out adjustable rate mortgages.
Posted by:YoaelJuly 4, 2008 2:47:17 PMRespond ^
Remember folks, these are same people
who brought us the Saving and Loans
Debacle of the 1980's.
Posted by:ThomasJuly 7, 2008 12:19:35 PMRespond ^
pretty simple.....housing wont come back until people accept thier houses are inflated in price.....it would come back tomarrow if folks cut 25 % off the cost now, and they will eventually...what was going on was unreal and everybody knew it...everyone
Posted by:rickoJuly 7, 2008 2:07:31 PMRespond ^
The market crash at the end of the 90's spurred reinvestment into real estate. We only have ourselves to blame for over inflated home prices and taking too good to be true loans on houses we knew we could not afford.
Posted by:JonJuly 9, 2008 7:06:21 AMRespond ^

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