Is this hell? No Senator Gramm, it's Iowa.
Phil Gramm was as good as his word...for once. After stating repeatedly that there were only three tickets out of Iowa, the Senator abandoned ship with a fifth-place finish. After being the first Republican to announce his candidacy and assembling a huge war chest, the Senator must be scratching his head.
Gramm's fundamental prblem was that he has all the charisma of Yertle the Turtle. After his efforts to get some early momentum were derailed by some embarrassing disclosures (especially the New Republic's revelation about Gramm's investment in a soft-core porn movie and our own story about his early penchant for helping drug dealers get out of jail early ("Phil's Felon," July/August 1995), Gramm's campaign just never really got off the ground.
The real message of the Iowa Caucuses, however, is that Bob Dole still has his work cut out for him in New Hampshire. Almost 75 percent of caucus-goers were unenthusiastic enough about Dole to vote against him. Pat Buchanan, who can scare away moderate conservatives, almost tied Dole thanks to solid support from the religious-right wing of the party.
On Dole's other flank, Lamar Alexander pulled in a considerable number of moderate conservatives, and brings some much-needed momentum into New Hampshire. If Alexander can win over the moderate-to-middle vote in New Hampshire the way Buchanan won over his wing in Iowa, Dole could find himself in a real horserace. Lamar doesn't worry voters, with his folksy musings, flannel shirts, plaid sportscoats and boots. He's run a savvy (if dull) campaign, playing "the other moderate." (Pete Wilson's early departure allowed him this luxury.) Casting himself as the forward-thinking outsider to Dole's soured and stale insider, he placed a strong third in Iowa; he could beat Dole on the 20th with the same strategy.
As for Steve Forbes, he did very little stumping in Iowa, which could explain his lower-than-expected results (10 percent). He'll fare better in New Hampshire's primary, but it seems that his bubble is bursting. People looking for an alternative to Dole seem to have turned off Forbes; now they're trying Buchanan and Alexander on for size.