It's the bigotry, stupid
Pat Buchanan takes New Hampshire
After a hotly contested campaign marred by negative campaigning, Pat Buchanan shocked many with a narrow win over Bob Dole in New Hampshire. The conservative commentator took 28 percent of the vote (56,923) to Dole's 27 percent (54,814). Lamar Alexander, who is increasingly looking like the option for those fed up with the GOP's internal sniping, finished a solid third with 23 percent (47,214).
At this point, the men have been separated from the boys; Forbes' unimpressive fourth-place finish essentially shuts him--and his flat tax--out of serious consideration. What's left is a three-way race between ultra-rightist (Buchanan), a moderate in right-wing clothing (Dole) and a Clintonian conservative (Alexander). Now that there's a solid choice for GOPers of each stripe, we can look at New Hampshire as a bellweather of the state of conservatism, right?
Not quite. Demographically speaking, New Hampshire doesn't represent the rest of the country from any angle--race, income, politics. Also, Dole and Alexander essentially split the moderate vote; had only one of those two been in the running, Buchanan would've been trounced handily. Buchanan said that his first-place finish was "a victory for the good men and women of Middle America," but it was more a win for the only serious hardcore conservative left in the race.
Buchanan plays the politics of fear like a pro: his plan to halt immigration for five years is little more than unreconstructed nativism, and his recent statement that he would ban all gays and lesbians from his administration is a gross offense to the sensibilities of most liberals and conservatives. (His campaign also hit an ugly moment after two of his workers were found to have ties with white supremicist groups.)
What Buchanan does well, though, is spin Republicanism into a new populism of sorts; while Dole and Alexander pick nits over boring stuff like the budget and tax reform, Pat talks about people, about supporting families and keeping jobs and buttressing the middle class and reforming the Beltway. His tack has two interesting consequences. By putting jobs and the middle class on the campaign map, he ironically pushes the other candidates to the left on economic matters. His success is also highlighting the deep rift in the GOP between working-class conservatives (who love Pat's economic populism) and the pro-corporate but more socially moderate Republican establishment. He'll probably be a major player for at least the next few primaries, especially next week in Arizona, where his policies should hit home faster than you can say "Meacham."
As for Dole and Alexander, their fight for the GOP's moderate wing continues. If current trends continue, Dole's in for big problems. A big part of his appeal has been the sense that his nomination is inevitable; the more vulnerable he looks, the more vulnerable he actually becomes.
Dole's certainly, um, "wise" enough to remember World War II's biggest lesson: don't fight a two-front war. For the moment he has to confront not only Buchanan's rising tide, but also Alexander's increasing aw-shucks appeal. Managing to winnow the field down to a two-man race will be key for the majority leader.