Essential, and Up for Grabs
News: To beat Bush, Democrats must energize African Americans. The vote in South Carolina should show whether any of the current crop can.
January 29, 2004
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New Hampshire is history. Democrats in the Granite State have given John Kerry another win and, pundits tell us, crucial momentum. Now, the primary fight shifts south and west. And, in one state at least, we may for the first time see how well Kerry and the six other remaining candidates can appeal to and energize black voters.
In the race for Democratic delegates, the big prizes next week are Arizona and Missouri. But for those looking ahead to November, the most important contest may be in South Carolina. Not only will next Tuesday's vote in the Palmetto State mark the first primary in the South, but also the first in a state where African American voters are likely to determine the outcome.
"This is the first time that all the Democratic candidates are competing for African American votes at this level," says Illinois Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr., who endorsed Howard Dean back in December and has been stumping for him in South Carolina. "It's never been done like this before, with so much attention paid to reaching out and winning endorsements, and I expect it to confound people's expectations."
African Americans account for 30 percent of registered voters in South Carolina, and more than half of the state's Democratic voters. And, while no Democratic presidential candidate has carried South Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976, strong support among black voters might force Bush to compete across the South. What's more, a high turnout among black voters could represent a vital margin of victory for the eventual Democratic contender in such battleground states as Ohio, Missouri, and Florida. Bush won all three states in 2000 -- but only by a few percentage points. In each of those states, as in Michigan, Illinois, and several other potential swing states, African Americans account for between 10 and 12 percent of the registered voters.
As Rep. Jim Clyburn -- long considered the most powerful black politician in South Carolina -- recently told a group of reporters: "Candidates who do well among African American voters here will go out of here with more credibility."
Clyburn will endorse Kerry today, an indication of how dramatically the situation in South Carolina has shifted. Just a month ago, the race was projected as a two-man contest between Howard Dean and former General Wesley Clark, with Rev. Al Sharpton as a potential spoiler. Sen. John Edwards, despite his South Carolina roots and his North Carolina political base, was doing little better in statewide polls than either Sen. Joe Lieberman or Rep. Dick Gephardt. And Kerry was barely on the political radar screen, keeping company at the back of the field with Rep. Dennis Kucinich and former Sen. Carol Moseley Brown.
Now, the race in South Carolina shapes up as a four-candidate contest between Edwards, Kerry, Clark, and Sharpton. But nearly 20 percent of South Carolina Democrats remain undecided, according to a recent poll by the American Research Group from Jan. 23-24. That's especially true for black voters. While 14 percent of White Democrats in South Carolina are undecided, according to the poll, nearly a quarter of African Americans haven't made up their mind.
"The African American vote is still up for grabs," says Donna Brazile, who chaired Al Gore's campaign in 2000. Kerry may have momentum, particularly with Clyburn's backing, but Brazile cautions that "no one flavor of the month will necessarily determine whether African Americans are going to come out and support a candidate. A lot will depend on how the candidates go after them."
So far, Sharpton has been most aggressive in going after South Carolina's black voters. His campaign is running radio spots that feature hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons and famed attorney Johnny Cochran stumping for the civil rights activist as "the only candidate who can give us a seat at the table." And, with the latest statewide poll showing Sharpton drawing the support of 27 percent of African American voters, he could end up as more than a wild card.
"If Sharpton gets half the black vote, he could wind up being the winner, because the rest will split between the other candidates," says Bill Lynch, former vice-chair of the Democratic National Committee and a longtime political operative who has advised Sharpton's campaign. Lynch says blacks may be tempted to back Sharpton, even if they know he'll never be the nominee. "That's what they did with Jesse Jackson," who won the Democratic primaries in South Carolina in 1984 and 1988.
Others, however, say Sharpton is no Jackson. And they point out that Sharpton has been campaigning in South Carolina with little competition for several weeks. Now, he will have the company of every other candidate, including Edwards and Clark, both of whom are already playing up their Southern connections.
For Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, winning on his home turf is critical. The one-term senator has made much of his rural, working-class Southern upbringing, and his campaign has built up a strong base of local supporters in the Carolinas. That group includes more than 90 elected and party officials in South Carolina, many of them African American, who can draw on grassroots support. Edwards is also running radio ads in the state that feature former Charlotte, SC mayor and civil rights lawyer Harvey Gantt talking up the one-term senator's down-home, up-from-poverty success story. Robert Ford, a South Carolina state senator, has another reason he and other local African American pols are turning to Edwards: "self-preservation."
"When the nominee is not a Southerner, we lose ground in local and state elections as well as the presidential election," says Ford. "The Democrats can't win without at least two or three Southern states."
Other local observers predict Clark could also do well among African Americans in the state, in part because of his background in the Army, the most integrated of all the Armed Services. They point to a TV ad he's running in South Carolina that features a female African American Army officer who served with Clark, touting the former general's record of promoting black officers. Clark's campaign is also flooding black communities with mailings and radio spots featuring prominent African American supporters from out of state, such as former Ambassador Andrew Young, New York Congressman Charlie Rangel and former New York Mayor David Dinkins.
The concerted push by Edwards and Clark, local observers say, could rapidly eat into Sharpton's apparent edge among black voters.
"Sharpton hasn't really given black folks here a reason to choose him over the others," says Kevin Gray, a contributing editor of Black News, a statewide newsweekly, who ran Rev. Jackson's South Carolina campaign in 1988 and was directing Sharpton's bid there before resigning in October. "If there is a black agenda … Sharpton hasn't necessarily defined what it is."
In fact, Kerry, Dean, Edwards, and Clark may be counting on the fact that, for most black voters, the most important agenda is defeating George W. Bush.
"Issues aren't defining this campaign for black voters, because all the Democratic candidates have pretty much gone along with black leadership positions," notes David Bositis, a senior analyst with the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, an African American think tank in Washington, DC. "The thing African Americans are really concerned about is who's going to beat Bush, so any of the current candidates would be acceptable among African Americans except Lieberman, who's too conservative, and has opposed affirmative action in the past."
"The real issue in South Carolina," says Jackson Jr. "is the 87,000 jobs that have been lost in the last two year. Every South Carolinian feels it, and if Dean or anyone else can get that message across, they'll do well there."
Kerry, who launched his campaign in South Carolina but until recently spent virtually no money and little time in the state, has downplayed the importance of winning there, emphasizing instead Missouri and its 74 delegates. "We expect to do well across the board on February 3," says deputy campaign manager Marcus Jadotte. "We're not pinning our hopes on any one state." Still, a victory in South Carolina could help blunt the oft-stated assumption that the Democrats can't win back the White House without a Southern nominee.
"Democrats are operating with a new paradigm this year," argues Jadotte. "In the past there's been segmenting of Democratic voters based on race or geography or ideological standing. But now Democrats are united in wanting a candidate who can take on George Bush." The state's senior senator, Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, made a similar argument last week when he endorsed Kerry, calling the four-term senator from Massachusetts "the only fella I know that has the courage and experience [to] really take on George Bush."
Last month, of course, Dean had been trying to present himself as the man who could take on Bush, in part by bringing black and white voters together. It was Dean who argued that the Democratic Party needed to adopt a new "Southern Strategy," and supporters like Jackson Jr. credit him with being the first candidate to address the issues of race in America head-on. But Dean's message -- that Republicans have won the South by dividing the region along racial lines -- has been largely co-opted by Edwards and others.
Having slipped badly in the South Carolina polls -- he drew the support of fewer black voters polled than either Kerry or Edwards -- Dean's campaign is now shifting its focus to the Feb. 7 primary in Michigan, where blacks account for nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters, and where Dean believes he can draw strong support.
"Dean's biggest plus in the Michigan primary is that he has endorsement of Congresswoman Carolyn Kilpatrick, whose son is the mayor of Detroit," notes Bositis. "But Dean is going to have to do well before Michigan for any of that to make that much difference."
Others, like Congressman Jackson, say it is far too early to count Dean out. A month ago, many were speculating that Jackson Sr. might endorse Dean because of his momentum and his unwavering opposition to the war in Iraq. But Dean appears to have lost that momentum, at least for now. What's more, Bositis contends, the war -- though opposed more strongly by blacks than by any other broad demographic group -- will not be a decisive factor in the battle for African American votes.
"For blacks the big issue is the economy and jobs, with schools second, and healthcare maybe third. But the overriding issue is getting rid of George Bush," he says. "Black voters would rather have a candidate who voted for the Iraq war resolution who could beat Bush than someone who was totally opposed to the war and is going to get slaughtered in the general election."
Sarah Ferguson is a New York-based freelance writer.
Photo: Associated Press/Wide World Photos
