Obama in California: Yes He Can?
News: To take California on Super-Duper Tuesday, Barack Obama doesn't have to win the Latino vote. But he still needs to lure a lot of it away from Hillary Clinton.
February 4, 2008
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In San Jose, California, Eric Hernandez is known as the "Make-It-Happen Kid." He tagged along on his first political campaign at the age of 10, landed an internship with the Silicon Valley city's Hispanic vice-mayor at 17, and was elected last year to lead his local neighborhood association—and he's barely old enough to vote.
The 18-year-old credits his early interest in grassroots organizing to the late labor organizer Cesar Chavez, who got his political start in this city a more than a generation ago. But unlike Chavez's United Farm Workers, which has joined other prominent Latino leaders in endorsing Hillary Clinton's presidential bid, Hernandez is supporting Barack Obama. In Obama, Hernandez sees a bit of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Jr., and Chavez himself. "He has that youthful feeling," he told me in Obama's new San Jose war room, where a basket of campaign pins with the old UFW motto "Si Se Puede" ("Yes We Can") sat by the door. "When you see him speak, it's awesome."
Two weeks ago, Hernandez was picked to lead the campaign's outreach to Latinos around town. He may have added another impressive item to his resume, but he has his work cut out for him. With Obama closely trailing Clinton in the run-up to the Super-Duper Tuesday primaries, Latino voters could decide the day, particularly in delegate-rich California, where they comprise roughly a third of the state's population. Polls indicate that they favor Clinton nearly three to one. Yet most Latinos are under 30, and the Obama campaign is trying to leverage its support among voters in their twenties—along with a late blitz of Spanish-language ads and endorsements from prominent Latino politicians and media outlets—to cut into Clinton's lead. "The big question is whether Hillary's margin among Hispanics will be 25 points or 5 to 10 points," said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network and an expert on electoral demographics. "If the Obama campaign can close the gap to 5 to 10, he's going to win California."
Obama is facing an uphill battle. Bill Clinton built a strong Latino base in California during his first presidential campaign and many Latinos associate his presidency with a more prosperous and immigrant-friendly era. Last May, Hillary Clinton opened her first California campaign office in Los Angeles, five months before Obama followed suit. She has locked in early endorsements from key Latino politicos such as Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and California Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez. Both her national campaign director and California field director are Hispanic. In October, Clinton flew to Fresno to meet with the leadership of the United Farm Workers—unlike Edwards and Obama, who sought the group's endorsement over the phone—a move that UFW spokeswoman Vicki Adame said "played a huge role in the members deciding she was the one."
"People know her, they trust her, and that's very important to the Latino community," said Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli, the Clinton campaign's national Hispanic communications director. Even Eric Hernandez admits that his mother supports Clinton. "I'm like, 'That's fine with me," he joked. 'I just won't talk to you for a year.'"
Obama received some important last-minute endorsements last week, including nods from the heavily Latino Service Employees International Union and La Opinion, the nation's largest Spanish-language newspaper, which criticized Clinton for opposing drivers' licenses for undocumented immigrants, something Obama has supported. He is also being backed by the Los Angeles Times and a few prominent Latino politicians such as State Senator Gilbert Cedillo and State Congressman Xavier Becerra of Los Angeles.
However, Obama's best chance of making inroads with California Latinos likely rests to the north of Los Angeles, in smaller towns where the Clinton campaign lacks the support of local political machines, and in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Obama polls better among the population at large. Obama has opened six Bay Area campaign offices chock full of young volunteers, hoping to quickly replicate his grassroots success in Iowa. (Clinton has just one office in the Bay Area.) Located in the Bay Area's most Hispanic county, the San Jose office is crucial for winning over Latino voters.
A phone-banking event Eric Hernandez organized two weeks ago brought out some 25 seasoned Spanish-speaking campaigners. But another phone bank he set up last Thursday drew only four volunteers. (At the last minute Hernandez had to tend to a sick grandmother and was called away to organize the campaign's mostly English-speaking volunteers to attend a rally with Senator John Kerry.) Among the callers who showed up were Ben Soriano, a 39-year-old who grew up in Salinas picking strawberries and now owns a billiards hall, and Jaime Alvarado, also 39, who runs a social services agency in Cesar Chavez's old neighborhood.
Earlier that day, Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy, the Senate's best-known champion of immigration reform, had appeared on Los Angeles's influential Piolín por la Mañana radio show. After being introduced as "the best senator in America," he talked up Obama, and sang a Mexican ballad in Boston-accented Spanish. Alvarado thought Kennedy's endorsement of Obama would make a big difference. "The Kennedy brothers for a long time had a semi-god status with Mexican-Americans," he said. "You go into a house and you see on the wall a picture of Jesus, a picture of the Virgin Mary, and a picture of the Kennedy brothers." But both Alvarado and Soriano said they support Obama for reasons that transcend his appeal to Latinos. They like his message of hope and his background as a community organizer. Alvarado was turned off by Bill Clinton's support of NAFTA and welfare reform. "You look at some of the things he did," he said, "and it was totally at the expense of the working class in this country."
Alvarado and Soriano cracked open some Buds and picked up their phones. After speaking with about a dozen voters, Alvarado turned to Soriano. "I thought they were doing a Latino phone bank or something like that." Soriano replied, "This is it, you're in it." They pressed ahead, surrounded by a crowd of young white kids on MacBooks. When anyone in the office spoke to a voter who pledged support for Obama, she rang a bell. Soriano and Alvarado rang theirs less often than the volunteers making calls in English. "The response I've been getting is that people are very familiar with Clinton," Soriano told me. "They don't necessarily know what specifically she has done, they just know that it is a strong name. The Clintons didn't have a bad attitude towards helping immigrants. They are less aware of Obama."
When the hour grew too late for cold calling, Soriano hopped in his Mercedes and rolled to his pool hall for an Obama fundraiser he'd organized. On the drive, he received a text from Hernandez, encouraging him to stay "fired up." "Is this the guy you were telling me about?" he asked. He had yet to meet him.
Inside the pool hall, a DJ spun hip-hop in front of a slick oil painting of the Illinois senator. Soriano introduced me to his all-Latino staff, none of whom is supporting Obama. Sound technician Gamaliel Marquez, a student at San Jose State University, liked Clinton's support of the DREAM Act, which would make it easier for foreign students to become citizens; he didn't realize that Obama cosponsored the bill, which died in the Senate last October. According to Soriano, one of his bouncers backs Clinton because he believes an Obama victory would give the black patrons at the door "more attitude than they have now."
At about 10 PM, Soriano took to the stage to kick things off. He announced he'd just seen a poll showing Obama trailed Clinton by a mere three percent in California, and that he was supporting him because he stands for "bringing people together and not dividing people." The crowd was young, well-dressed, and almost entirely African-American. Neither the Make-It-Happen Kid nor any other Latino Obama supporters were present. "Typically it is more diverse, so I don't know what that means," Soriano said. "I think maybe the whole Obama thing might have changed things a little bit."
Josh Harkinson is Mother Jones' San Francisco reporter.
