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May 5, 2003

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"The Americans and the British became obsessed with getting rid of Saddam; they thought he was responsible for all the catastrophes in Iraq. But they have opened a Pandora's box." -- Wamid Nadmi, a political science professor at Baghdad University. "This is the responsibility of the Americans. They are occupying our country. They should be protecting us. Where are they?" -- an orthopedist at a Baghdad hospital.   Occupation Watch: British Army Can't Handle Unilateral Occupation (The Telegraph); An Iraqi Hezbollah is Born? (The Nation); Pressure Grows on US to Give Iraqi Body Count (The San Francisco Chronicle); Gunmen, Past Owners Seizing Homes in Baghdad (USA Today) Weapons Watch: Rights Groups Accuse US, UK Over Cluster Bomb Secrecy (The Guardian); Doubts Grow Over 'Smoking Gun' (The Sacramento Bee); Iraqis Continue to Deny Weapons Claims (Associated Press) Coalition Watch: Ukraine: Coalition? We Didn't Join Any Coalition (Associated Press)

 
Score One for Powell
In a minor coup for Colin Powell, a new civilian leader takes the reins in Iraq. But will he have better luck?
P L U S :
In With The New Boss...
As it turns out, many US-appointed Iraqis are old Ba'ath party regulars. Now, they have a new master.
Score One for Powell
No matter what neoconservative insults Newt Gingrich may have lobbed his way, Secretary of State Colin Powell seems to have scored one for the team in the ongoing struggle between his State Department and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's Pentagon. L. Paul Bremer III is expected in Iraq this week as the new civilian administrator of America's interim authority in Iraq, taking the lead position away from retired general Jay Garner in what is being touted as a minor victory over one of Rummy's protégées. Garner will report to Bremer, a former US state department official.

Garner and Rumsfeld are trying to play down the switch as business-as-usual. Garner said to the New York Times, "[Bremer] will get more involved in the political process. I'm doing all of it and don't want to do all of it." Rumsfeld issued a statement defending Garner, saying that he had done an "outstanding job" for his country and that "Any suggestion to the contrary is flat untrue and mischievous." As Kaleem Omar writes in the Pakistan Daily Times:

"At a press conference at Heathrow Airport with British Defence Secretary Geoffrey Hoon, Rumsfeld said, 'There is not only no unhappiness with respect to General Jay Garner, there is a great deal of pleasure in the fact that this man has undertaken and performed superbly for our country and for the coalition.'

In just what way has Garner 'performed superbly,' however, Rumsfeld did not say."

Despite Rumsfeld's protestations, it has been widely acknowledged in the press that Bremer's introduction is a win for Powell. The State Department, among others, found that Garner's army credentials aligned him too closely with the US military, which threatened the interim authority's credibility. International help and non-governmental organizations, the State Department had argued, would be uncomfortable or unwilling to report to a US military figure, even if he was retired. But Bremer is hardly a dove or a neutral party. As Jim Lobe writes for the Inter Press News Agency:

"The State Department's counter-terrorism chief during the administration of former President Ronald Reagan and chairman of the National Commission on Terrorism which concluded its work in 2000, Bremer worked for Kissinger Associates after he left the foreign service. While his views are generally quite conservative, he also is seen as a consummate realist who lacks the kind of missionary spirit for democracy that aides around Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney espouse.

Like the neo-conservatives, he has long called for a very hard line against what he calls 'extremist Islam' and for aggressive tactics, including assassination, in pursuing and pre-empting suspected terrorists.

In a 1996 'Wall Street Journal' article, he called on then-president Bill Clinton to deliver ultimatums to Libya, Syria, Iran and Sudan to cease any support for terrorism or face military action. His rhetoric in that regard has been distinctly 'Rumsfeldian'.

But Bremer has also voiced great scepticism about exporting democracy, particularly to what he calls 'ethnically aroused' parts of the world, such as the Middle East, a view which puts him very much at odds with the neo-conservatives.

Despite his strong sentiments on fighting 'extremist Islam,' Bremer's consensus-building skills, which were sorely tested in both the Reagan administration and the Terrorism Commission, are highly regarded. Between the Pentagon and the State Department, they will be badly needed."

Certainly, one of Bremer's tasks will be to navigate the tensions on the home front. But sorting out the squabbles among his bosses might be a distraction from the real issues. As the Washington Post writes, "The danger, some say, is that philosophical differences could detract from solving the enormous, pressing practical problems in Iraq, such as restoring power and reopening ministries." In a separate article, the Post also warns that the continuing power vacuum in Iraq is helping and encouraging opportunist and often extremist local elements to fill the void in Iraq:

"Many Iraqis, and even some U.S. officials here, warn that the failure of the commanders and the Pentagon's civilian reconstruction team to assert more authority could significantly complicate efforts to form a stable interim government for this factious nation of 24 million people. The military's laissez-faire posture, they contend, could allow a host of religious and tribal interests that were quick to flex their muscles to gain disproportionate and unwarranted influence, potentially jeopardizing the transformation of the military victory here into a political one.

'If we are not careful,' one U.S. official warned, 'we risk altering the political landscape, and that could have serious, long-term consequences.'"

So while it's certainly possible that Garner was simply the wrong man for the job (the Baltimore Sun suggests that he simply should have gotten a suit), it's unclear whether Bremer will have the tools to do any better. Whatever their philosophical differences, the State Department and the Pentagon's disagreements are surfacing only because the situation in Iraq has gotten so sticky. As the strain increases, the cracks are beginning to show in Bush's plans, or lack thereof, for postwar Iraq. As the Los Angeles Times reports:

"Nearly a month after Baghdad fell to U.S. forces, the reconstruction effort is struggling to gain visibility and credibility, crime is a continuing problem, Iraqis desperate for jobs and security are becoming angry and the transition to democracy promised by President Bush seems rife with risk.

The continuing disorder in a country accustomed to the repressive but absolute stability provided by Saddam Hussein is fueling at least a deep skepticism about U.S. intentions and at worst a dangerous anti-Americanism. As competing religious, tribal and territorial political forces move to fill the void, they threaten to divide the country rather than unite it.

Interviews with political analysts, exile figures and ordinary Iraqis throughout the country, coupled with developments on the ground, indicate that the United States' power to control Iraq and shape its future is increasingly threatened by the pervasive uncertainty.

On many fronts, U.S. officials appear to have been unprepared for what awaited them in Iraq, from mundane concerns such as how to cope with the lack of telephones to philosophical questions such as how to respond to the desire of many Iraqis for an Islamic state."

Powell may have scored a point, but Jay Garner may be breathing a sigh of relief.
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In With the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss?
Over the weekend, the US also began naming its choices to head up the all-important Iraqi Oil Ministry. So far, the reviews are decidedly mixed.

American officials have been taking pains to portray their interest in Iraq's most lucrative export as decidedly benign: Iraq's oil, Washington insists over and over, is for the Iraqis. But, as Warren Vieth and Mark Fineman write in the Los Angeles Times, the first three appointments to the ministry's advisory board haven't exactly dispelled the notion that the US plans to keep a tight hold on Iraqi oil. Two former regime figures, Fadhil Othman and Thamir Ghadhban, were tapped to sit on the oversight panel, and Shell Oil's former CEO, Philip Carroll, an American, is set to lead it. As many observers are pointing out, while the move may help speed the oil fields' recovery, it sends exactly the wrong message.

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"Based on what they have seen so far, they said the postwar plan appeared to reflect a distinctly American agenda. Ghadhban might be making decisions on the ground, but officials in Washington are likely to be looking over his shoulder, the analysts said.

'The advisory board is going to be planning Iraqi oil policy and defining projects and approving budgets,' said Walid Khadduri, executive editor of the Middle East Economic Survey in Cyprus. 'What's left for the Iraqi oil industry to do? Just implement policy that has been designed somewhere else.'

...

'[Washington's] rhetoric is hard to argue with,' said Michael Renner, who tracks the oil industry for Worldwatch Institute, a Washington-based environmental group. 'But what we have seen so far speaks a different language. Whether it's intended or not, the signal that is coming across is that this is going to be a U.S.-run operation and decisions are going to be made not by Iraqis, but by outsiders.'"

Meanwhile, as Jay Garner's administration gropes its way toward restoring order across the country, it is coming to rely increasingly on former Ba'ath party officials to get crucial ministries up and running. As the London Independent's Donald Macintyre reports, not everyone thinks this is a good thing. US officials rightly note that, after decades of Saddam Hussein's rule, there are few experienced administrators wholly untainted by the regime. But in the health and education ministries, virtually all Ba'ath officials below ministerial rank seem set to regain their posts. To some, this elevation of expediency over careful vetting has sounded alarm bells. In some Baghdad universities, it has even prompted the exercise of newfound democratic rights, as students protest the lack of change, Reuters reports.

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