John McCain Takes Victory Momentum and Heads… Where?

Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.


mccain-wins-nh.jpg MANCHESTER, NH — Everyone knows independents love John McCain. It turns out, Republicans love him too.

In all exit polling, John McCain dominated amongst the registered independents in New Hampshire who decided to vote in the Republican primary. But depending on who you ask, only 30 to 40 percent of the voters in that primary were indies; the rest were registered Republicans. According to MSNBC’s exit polls, McCain took 35 percent of these voters, besting Romney by two points. In CNN’s exit polls, Romney took 35 percent of these voters and McCain took 34 percent.

McCain won amongst men and amongst women. He won amongst voters who value national security and those who prioritize the economy. He won handily amongst lower-income voters, and managed to tie the former corporate CEO Romney amongst high-income voters. It was a decisive victory for McCain.

And it was stunning one for multiple reasons. McCain’s campaign was pronounced all but dead due to lack of funds and staff upheavals last summer. Mitt Romney outspent McCain badly and hammered him with negative advertisements in this state. And no Massachusetts senator or governor has ever lost a primary in neighboring New Hampshire.

So New Hampshire’s love affair with John McCain continues. Chants of “Mac is back” resounded through the Nashua Crowne Plaza Hotel last night before McCain gave his victory speech. McCain emphasized his ties to New Hampshire’s voters, explaining that he tried to speak to them, listen to them, argue with them. He treated them with respect. “I didn’t try to spin you,” he said, emphasizing the fact that authenticity, one of his strengths, is perceived as one of Mitt Romney’s weaknesses. “Tomorrow,” he said, “we begin again.”

But where? The next Republican primary is Michigan (Jan. 15), where Romney was born and his father was governor. McCain is polling fourth there, and Mike Huckabee has the most momentum. The primaries after Michigan are South Carolina and Nevada (both Jan. 19). In South Carolina, a state with which McCain has a mixed history, he is stuck in a three-way tie for third place. Huckabee is considered the frontrunner there, due to his connection to the state’s many Christian conservatives. In Nevada, McCain polls fourth.

In the end, McCain’s win here may actually help Rudy Giuliani. The former New York Mayor’s plan to skip the early states on the Republican primary calendar looked foolish when he dropped off the media radar during the Iowa and New Hampshire circuses. But because neither Huckabee nor Romney can take momentum out of New Hampshire, it is very possible the Republican race will reach the Florida primary (Jan. 29) and Tsunami Tuesday (Feb. 5) without a clear frontrunner. Because Giuliani is polling exceptionally well in Florida, California, New York, and other large states due to vote then, he may just pull out a come-from-behind victory.

But then again, Giuliani did try to win in New Hampshire, no matter what his campaign claims, and took a tepid fourth. He beat Ron Paul by just a couple thousand votes. It is entirely possible that the only thing that really appeals to Republican voters this election season, with the exception of pockets of support here and there for assorted candidates, is the fabled none of the above.

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE

We’re falling behind our online fundraising goals and we can’t sustain coming up short on donations month after month. Perhaps you’ve heard? It is impossibly hard in the news business right now, with layoffs intensifying and fancy new startups and funding going kaput.

The crisis facing journalism and democracy isn’t going away anytime soon. And neither is Mother Jones, our readers, or our unique way of doing in-depth reporting that exists to bring about change.

Which is exactly why, despite the challenges we face, we just took a big gulp and joined forces with the Center for Investigative Reporting, a team of ace journalists who create the amazing podcast and public radio show Reveal.

If you can part with even just a few bucks, please help us pick up the pace of donations. We simply can’t afford to keep falling behind on our fundraising targets month after month.

Editor-in-Chief Clara Jeffery said it well to our team recently, and that team 100 percent includes readers like you who make it all possible: “This is a year to prove that we can pull off this merger, grow our audiences and impact, attract more funding and keep growing. More broadly, it’s a year when the very future of both journalism and democracy is on the line. We have to go for every important story, every reader/listener/viewer, and leave it all on the field. I’m very proud of all the hard work that’s gotten us to this moment, and confident that we can meet it.”

Let’s do this. If you can right now, please support Mother Jones and investigative journalism with an urgently needed donation today.

payment methods

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE

We’re falling behind our online fundraising goals and we can’t sustain coming up short on donations month after month. Perhaps you’ve heard? It is impossibly hard in the news business right now, with layoffs intensifying and fancy new startups and funding going kaput.

The crisis facing journalism and democracy isn’t going away anytime soon. And neither is Mother Jones, our readers, or our unique way of doing in-depth reporting that exists to bring about change.

Which is exactly why, despite the challenges we face, we just took a big gulp and joined forces with the Center for Investigative Reporting, a team of ace journalists who create the amazing podcast and public radio show Reveal.

If you can part with even just a few bucks, please help us pick up the pace of donations. We simply can’t afford to keep falling behind on our fundraising targets month after month.

Editor-in-Chief Clara Jeffery said it well to our team recently, and that team 100 percent includes readers like you who make it all possible: “This is a year to prove that we can pull off this merger, grow our audiences and impact, attract more funding and keep growing. More broadly, it’s a year when the very future of both journalism and democracy is on the line. We have to go for every important story, every reader/listener/viewer, and leave it all on the field. I’m very proud of all the hard work that’s gotten us to this moment, and confident that we can meet it.”

Let’s do this. If you can right now, please support Mother Jones and investigative journalism with an urgently needed donation today.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate