Clintonistas Versus Neocons on the Success of the Surge
The authors of a moderate new report on Iraq went head-to-head with the neocon architects of the war on the neocons' home turf. Why the hawks are running scared.
Before a packed house including Vice Presidential daughter Liz Cheney and former VP aide Mary Matalin, Iraq surge godfathers Frederick Kagan and Gen. Jack Keane faced off against a proponent of a phased withdrawal from Iraq at a discussion at the American Enterprise Institute yesterday. "I think I am the designated skunk at the AEI surge garden party," said James Miller, of the new centrist think tank, Center for a New American Security, a former Clinton era deputy assistant secretary of defense, from the panel. And in a way, that's exactly what he was meant to be.
Miller is the co-author of a recent CNAS Iraq report, Phased Transition, that argues that the U.S. should reduce its troop presence in Iraq by 100,000 troops over the next year, and withdraw completely over the next five years. By arguing for a planned phased withdrawal, Miller says his plan hopes to avoid what it sees as the likely alternative: a precipitous withdrawal in January 2009 when the Bush administration leaves office. The report also argues for an increased advisory role for the U.S. in Iraq.
AEI military expert Tom Donnelly recently brought out the big guns, taking to the pages of the Weekly Standard (several floors below AEI) in an article entitled "Orderly Humiliation" to tar the CNAS report as the "Clintonista" plan — in case any potential moderate Republican supporters of such a plan didn't understand CNAS' genetic bloodlines. Conservative scholar Max Boot went after it on the op-ed pages of the Los Angeles Times the same week. Such coordinated critiques as well as today's event indicate that the architects of the Iraq invasion and the surge are nervous about the political pressure growing on the White House to rethink the U.S. strategy and reduce the U.S. troop presence in Iraq. Pressure that is increasingly coming from Senate Republicans.
At the AEI event today, Miller argued that the surge had had two goals: 1) reducing the violence in Iraq, particularly in Baghdad, and 2) facilitating political reconciliation. He said that violence has partially subsided in Baghdad but is now increasing elsewhere; and that there has been essentially zero progress in furthering political reconciliation among Iraq's ethnic groups.
Kagan, a bespectacled resident scholar at AEI, argued, contra Miller, that the surge is showing signs of political progress. "Are we so impatient? Are the stakes so low? Is it easier to declare failure?"
An Iraq expert who attended the event comments, "The AEI crowd thinks that we are making real progress, should ignore politics at home, and cut the Iraqi government some slack ... They completely fail to grasp that in pursuing the surge until our country is strategically and politically exhausted, and not thinking about a transitional presence as part of a responsible withdrawal, they will end up triggering a precipitous withdrawal the minute Bush leaves office."
The AEI debate on this sweltering Washington day drew the kind of crowd you would expect to see for the kind of high stakes event the think tank ran during the height of the Iraq invasion. And the stakes are high: while the panel moderator Danielle Pletka mourned at the end everyone was only talking about the surge in the context of U.S. domestic politics, and not U.S. national security, the event organizers too are arguing for a strategy they see as urgently necessary for political vindication, but one that has lost the support of the vast majority of the American public. As the presence of Cheney daughter Liz and aide Matalin attest, the public debate continues a private discussion with a more receptive audience of two in the White House.
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Remember the Vietnam war..
The powers that were in control at the time (USA) poured money and troops into a war that could not be won using hightech weapons against guerilla warfare used by an opponent that did not want them there..
The war was ended not by government but by protest by the people around the world..
It took some time for this to happen and during that time many soldiers and civilians were needlessly killed because the government would not admit that they had made a mistake..This sounds familiar and it seems that we are going down the same road as we did in Vietnam..
The mantra that keeps things going this time is “Support our Troops” at any cost and if you don’t agree you are a traitor and are letting our troops down..
Might I suggest that the best way to support our troops is to bring them home alive and not in coffins as we are doing now..
Let us hope this will happen but it seems that the only way to make it happen is for the people to force the government to make it happen..
To do what AEI does in secret is pure evil. To conduct their business in public is in a category beyond cynicism. It is as if they are begging for the gas chamber.
So the problem is the lack of virtue among the American people. If we were more patient things would turn around in Iraq. Shameless.
The problem is not a lack of patience, but the lack of competence on the part of the Bush administration. Apparently, the only enemy they can effectively fight is the Democratic Party. Slogans like "Cut and Run" don't win wars. Focused leadership is what was needed and what was totally absent.
The Military-Industrial Complex is impotent without an egomaniac psychopath as Commander in Chief!
Evaluate Johnson, Nixon and "W"!
Am I right or am I wrong?
When we WIN, if we Win, what have we Won,
How many years will it take us to re-coop the money spent on Iraq -
How much health care could we have paid for and how much education could we have provided were it not for this war?
Is there a downside for the rightists in a 'precipitous withdrawal in 2009'? They know as well as anyone that the pathetically undermanned 'surge' is going nowhere. Withdrawal will end the current hopeless blundering, attach the blame to someone else, and leave a chaos that will soon demand another war robustly fought under the banner of avoiding the present sources of failure.
Whether we get out of Iraq today or twenty years from today, will it make a dime's worth of difference in the chaos that will follow?
Yesterday, Bush said that we need to leave it up to the generals and not the politicians, to decide what is best in Iraq.
Several months ago, 5 top field commanders in Iraq, including the one who commanded the most troops, publicly stated on C-Span that it was time to bring the troops home. If Bush believes so much in what the generals think, why didn't he listen to them back then?
CLINTONISTAS vs. Neocons?
As I recall, the only Clinton who's had any say in this war has been PRO-Iraq-Invasion from the word go.
Has she said "I was wrong" yet?
I don't think so.
Why should the American public hold any stock with the current policy concerning Iraq? This administration has been wrong with its assessment of the war and strategies to fight it since its inception. We've got to change direction before it's to late.
First of all, far from being a "mistake," the invasion and occupation of Iraq is a crime, to wit, that of aggression. Secondly, and with that point in mind, the "surge" nor any other strategy that leaves US troops or "advisors" in Iraq is irrelevant---do you seriously believe that the crime of aggression DESERVES victory or anything else that could be called a "success?"
It is always precipitously dangerous in life to invest so much buy-in and belief in some particular view of the world when what it takes to render that view obsolete are events simple enough to be ignored and yet significant enough to merit a rethink, and perhaps an about turn. Such is the quandary that the godfathers of the Right face in USA - including their most fervent disciples in the strategic policy-making institutions of the system. To still hang on to the hope that a military solution in Iraq will win the day smells of downright thuggery and incorrigible lunacy - no amount of military technology can vanguish the stubborn will of people, be it in Washington or Baghdad.
I can understand somehow the thought process dominating the hawks at the Pentagon - the very strategic and sole reason for their ill-conceived intervention in Iraq - oil security, looks far from being realised, and for that reason will continue to re-invent words like 'surge' to give them multiple interpretation in the hope that delaying an acknowledgement for failure will somehow wash away the growing evidence of how tenous the situation is becoming. However, if ever there was a time in the history of misadventure a window of opportunity existed to cut their losses it is now.
To continue to recycle the same lies about the Iraq-Al qaeda link the same way our dear friend George W is doing only helps to reinforce the fact America is on its way out as a strategic force - it is hard to imagine how an electorate could have voted for such a man. I rest my case.
What Frederick Kagan and others forget is that US troops are dying in record numbers while we wait for a "surge" that will not bring peace or even improvement. These people never learn and don't appear to care about our soldiers, our civilians, and the people of Iraq. I would like to see Bush, Cheney, and all the neocons packed up in a 747 and flown to Iraq, given $25.00 each and told you are own your own. If they don't like that punishment, how about turning them over to the World Court for their war crimes.
In response to;
Yesterday, Bush said that we need to leave it up to the generals and not the politicians, to decide what is best in Iraq. Several months ago, 5 top field commanders in Iraq, including the one who commanded the most troops, publicly stated on C-Span that it was time to bring the troops home. If Bush believes so much in what the generals think, why didn't he listen to them back then?
Posted by:Richard Aberdeen onJuly 11, 2007 12:33:29 PM
Simple. When generals disagree with the republican view of the war, Bush/Chaney simply change generals.
Again Bush came up with the excuse that Al Qeda is using Iraq as a field of attack upon us eventhough it has been proven that Al Qeda had nothing to do with Hussein's Iraq and probably nothing to do with - what's his name, we forgot WHO we are after.. Bush will never learn and the public swallows his nonsense and lets him lead us to bankrupcy and political corruption. No more nonsense! Why not withdraw and see what will happen instead of taking his prediction of doom.
The assorted neocons who co-opted Bush and his administration for the purpose of spreading Pax Americana around the world with military force have dismally failed their mission, a failure that has grievously wounded our society and our place in the world. Those of them whose motivation involved the fate of Israel (i.e.,Lieberman and Wolfowitz)have worsened their own cause. Furthermore, where you might call for a Napoleon to lead your armies to victory, you shouldn't choose a drug-store cowboy.
The big problem is that WE are not failing. That's like someone raping you and complaining about YOU not liking sex! "What's the matter: can't get it up for good sex?"
We as citizen taxpayers were pressured into this based on false intelligence, false premises and false assumptions. Our pockets were picked by Haliburton and other cronies of the administration - off the books. WE did not decide in good faith that this occupation was necessary. WE are not losing this war - just as a coerced sex partner is not responsible for the bad sex that ensues. Don't give us this drivel GW apologists!
Vietnam, Watergate, Iran Contra now as then patriotism Be a patriot back us no matter how stupid or idiotic the plan. Republicans spout values democracy, yet they are all in this for money.Special interest groups and big business. Just as the "Bushwacker" bankrupted Texas, he will continue to dig us into a hole our great great grandchildren will still be digging out of. I find it appalling that still he talks patriotism and stay the course and listen to our generals when he did not listen to them himself several months ago. Now where are the pundits that will not allow this magic act of look at the white house attorney firing and let that be center stage and not this war debacle.
The war is consting $15 billion a month? And for what? The neocons are unwilling to accept any responsibility for their total disaster and cannot now show any evidence of compromise by Iraqi political factions. Moreover, the neocon strategy now is to blame the Iraqis: "we gave them democracy and they dropped the ball." No one buys that nonsense. The longer Bush and the neocons hold on to the failure, the darker the stain.
Jay says the Iraq war is not a mistake, it's a crime - but clearly, it is both, and more. Not just one crime, but a huge, ongoing criminal enterprise - not just one mistake, but a whole series of mistakes compounded by more mistakes.
In a way, we should be grateful for the incompetence of these creeps, their dream of a thousand-year Reich seems to be dying...but it's sickening that so many people are dying or being maimed in the process.
leave an indelebile track in the us history,that's what drive the little georges,open new market to fill up the already full pocket of his lobby american entreprise,that's the goal of big dick,after all it's the final goal of individualism, a bit of the me, myself and i.the head of USA is the caricatural mind and act drive by hyprocrisy , religious behaviour who's suppose to legitimate the modern crusade,the globalization,exporting democraty,leading the world as the"choosen nation",anyways this administration damage the position of USA as the leader of free world,everywhere in the world you can feel it,sadly neocon ideology hidejack your country ,and spread around the world,all the empire have an end sooner or later,and beware of god he always drive you to wars
Just to set the record straight. The VietNam war ended for the US because the NVA had been supplied with the SAM 3 missle system by the Soviet Union. The Sam 3 was laser guided & heat seeking & the US had no way to defend the B 52 bombers against it. By this time the ARVN was doing the ground missions & the US was providing supplies & air support.
It is the Republican Party with its AEI[american empire institute?] and other minions, PNAC, who must bear the responsibility for the failure in Iraq. Failure is not waiting to happen, the Iraq failure is now, although all the corporations making $billions of American taxpayers monies are most certainly victors in Iraq. As long as our continued presence in Iraq the corporations will declare victory to their stockholders. The CEO's will be given million dollar bonuses of which is paid for by the American taxpayers, some of which, oblivious of the fact, will herald and trumpet our "free" enterprise system despite that it's fascism. The Republicans and their minions are implementing a soviet-fascist system of government for the USA. Proof that the Republican don't support the troops is the vote this week which was to help the troops serving in Iraq the ability to salvage their families, and the Senate Republican would have none of it and voted against the troops and their families well being. This was introduced by Senator Webb a retired military Admiral and former Secretary of Defense.
Someone, a former President I think, declared that war is too important to be left up to the generals to decide on whether or not to go to war. That's why the president is commander in chief of the military. Many military officers will, and do, gladly use troops under their command as cannon fodder so they can be promoted. They won't even flinch in putting someone else's life on the line if it would improve their promotion possibilities.My brother in Vietnam found this out and wouldn't hesitate getting in an officers and tell him "that if he thought that what he was ordering was such a good idea he could do it do himself" at which time the order would not be filled without consequence. Of course if the officer got testy he had to fear being fragged by the troops. I know soldiers that do some fragging.
the Bush administration is starting to exhibit the same paranoic tendencies as the Nixon presidency. how much taint all of this will leave in our national politics and for how long is a chilling thought.
The comment by Noble Douglas (Posted by: Noble Douglas onJuly 11, 2007 1:40:16 PM) touches on the impact of America's Iraq policies on its standing as the "sole remaining superpower" since the fall of the Berlin Wall. I believe Mr. Douglas is right. Although there are signs that illustrate this development, this aspect of the war's consequences is more difficult to discern and is going completely unreported to the American public. Let's summarize it, for now, this way: In having invaded Iraq, America is in stunning record-tempo actually undoing its privileged position of moral authority in the world, introducing great military uncertainties into the international community of the early 21st century. Going forward, the new realities will bring indirect dollar costs with it that will dwarf the actual cost to the nation in lives and treasure spent so far.
the born again stalinistas can't afford to be wrong no matter how many peasants die. they're only peasants...........
in a context of creating permanent war, breeding terrorists is essential. so this war must last as long as possible. when bush elevated osama from criminal to the head of a stateless state it virtually closed the door on any thing else. empire or democracy which do you want
Ed,
Your comments about the Vietnaum War ending becuse the Russians provided the Vietnamese with the 'SAM 3 Misile System' that was 'heat seaking and laser-guided' are hilarious! Your assertion is not even wrong...it is sciecnce fiction. First of all, go to Wikipedia or GlobalSecurity.Org or some other open source and look up the SA-3...there is no mention of IR or laser guidance...Also, the Vietnamese made their money using the SA-2, which also wasn't IR or laser-guided. Aslo, we left Vietnaum not because of B-52 loss rates, but because we realized that we couldn't chase down and kill villagers who waved at us by day and wore black pajamas at night and killed us by us using billions of dollars of high tech air power and American GIs slogging through rice paddies. We realized that we were backing the weaker side in some other country's civil war and that even if we poured 1 million troops in there and stayed for 20 more years we wouldn't ultimately prevail, and anyway, Vietnaum's turning communist wasn't any threat to the US anyhoo.
Back to the war at hand:
With the peak of large oilfield discoveries occuring in the mid-to-late 1960s, and global oil demand increasing at 2% per year, and the bulk of easily available oil being in the middle east, our occupation in Iraq is obviously about having an American miltary outpost smack in the middle of the oil patch to assure our access to the black gold. President Carter declared Mid-Eastern oil to be in our vital national interest back in 1979 or so and let it be openly known that we would militarily intervene to assure our access...he created the Rapid Deployment Force, the ancestor of today's Central Command (CENTCOM). And Carter was a pacifist! Funny thing is, we are burning 16+ gallons of oil per each American Soldier per day to putter around Iraq and get picked off one-by-one and bled dry...some $12-15 Billion/month now! The US has had since 1973 (the Arab Oil Embargo as a reaction to our backing of Israel) to wean ourselves off of Mid-East oil and develop new energy sources and technologies to conserve oil...but then the oil companies wouldn't make such a big phat profit, saavy? We might as well put Exxon, Shell, Conoco, and ARAMCO sticker all over our vehicles of war, kindof like NASCAR sponsoe sticker on race cars, to show our true motives and taskmasters. And we ought to make the 7 sisters pay for this effort directly as well...go ahead, they can pass the cost on to consumers by doubling the price of gasoline to at least $6/gallon..then most Americans would finally be sacrificing something for this war over and above all those trite 'support the troops' yellow ribbon car magnets. Most people need to pull their heads out of a dark place and see the world for what it is and understand what is really going on!
