Fred Thompson: The GOP's Worst Bet?
The former Tennessee senator upstaged last night's presidential debate and finally announced his presidential bid after months of toying with the media and the GOP base. His unofficial candidacy has caused a frenzy, but he'd likely make the Republican Party's worst nominee.
Just before the Republican presidential field squared off for last night's Fox News debate in New Hampshire, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson stole the show with a campaign ad that quasi-announced his candidacy for president. The spot, which featured the tall and ruggedly handsome Thompson speaking directly into the camera, ended with the line, "Fred Thompson, Republican for President."
It wasn't Thompson's first declaration of his candidacy (he's been announcing that he has something to announce for months). Nor was it his last. Later that night, Thompson appeared on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno, where he said, more directly, "I'm running for president of the United States."
And with that, Thompson was officially in the race, having already secured himself a place as a top tier Republican candidate, a feat that owes in no small part to his coy (and calculated) flirtation with candidacy and the frenzy this hard-to-get strategy generated among the media and the GOP base. According to Pollster.com, which averages polls, Thompson is currently polling second nationally in the GOP primary field, behind Rudy Giuliani. He places third in Iowa and New Hampshire, and is almost tied for first in South Carolina. Having done little of note during his two terms in the Senate, the Law and Order star has managed to steal the spotlight from his competitors. He did so again yesterday.
But a Thompson nomination could lead the GOP down the road to ruin. Popularity with Republican primary voters—the most devout party members, those least likely to abandon the president, the war, or a scandal-plagued party in Congress—is not a reliable indicator of who can win the 2008 general election. And in this election, it's a particularly faulty one.
Identification with the Republican Party has plummeted in recent months. A Newsweek poll this May showed that only 22 percent of Americans consider themselves Republicans, while 35 percent of Americans consider themselves Democrats. Meanwhile, a third of Americans either identify with the GOP or lean towards it, while over half of Americans do the same with the Democratic Party. In the 2006 midterms, scandals and an unpopular war weighed down Republican candidates. Those conditions—from Senator Larry Craig's recent bathroom bust to the president's continued stay-the-course approach to Iraq, even as support for the war falls off—both appear to be continuing.
As a result, the GOP would be smart to nominate someone who appeals not only to its base—diehards, who will vote the Republican column regardless—but who can also reach self-identified Democrats and Independents.
That means that Thompson, with his 100 percent pro-life voting record and classic Republican emphasis on federalism and social conservatism, might be the GOP's worst nominee. Thompson's communications director recently told Time, "There is no question that Senator Thompson, among the top tier Republicans, is closest to our base in terms of mainstream conservative values." Thompson undoubtedly checks all the base's boxes, certainly better than the socially moderate Rudy Giuliani or the formerly socially moderate Mitt Romney. But if Giuliani wins the nomination, he'll carry the base anyway and likely chip away some Independents and security-minded (or 9/11-blinded) Democrats. Romney and John McCain have some ability, though less than Giuliani, to do the same. Thompson, the most conventional Republican of the bunch, has no such hopes, Hollywood fame notwithstanding.
There is a legitimate argument to be made that the nomination of Giuliani or Romney would depress turnout among the Republican base, an effect that would probably not occur were Thompson the nominee. But, at the same time, the ranks of the GOP base has dwindled over the past year, and turning every member of it out to vote is less important than grabbing significant blocks of swing voters. Plus, the nomination of Hillary Clinton, who Republicans love to hate, could take care of the GOP's turnout woes.
Also working against Thompson is the fact that he has no national security credentials (that's McCain), no icon-making moment (that's Giuliani), and no significant management experience or Cleaver-esque family (that's Romney), which, hype aside, leaves you with an undistinguished senator and moderately successful actor who has a reputation for laziness. Republicans should hope their infatuation with Thompson is a movie star crush instead of a long-term affair because he's their worst chance for the White House.
Page 1 of 1 
Take it from someone who lived in New York during the Giuliani Regime...
This guy (who is a dead ringer for Jim Carrey in makeup in "The Mask") is as phony as a three dollar bill!
He is not a true Republican, he is a liberal RINO who once supported ultra-liberal loon George McGovern for President. He only became a Republican because in 1981, Reagan had become President, and he wanted a job in the U.S. Attorney's Office.
While mayor, he surrounded himself with incompetent friends and cronies (Howard Safir, Bernard Kerik, Peter Powers), who did more harm than good for the city agencies that they (mis)managed.
Take it from me...
Don't be taken in by this deceitful charlitan!
What is wrong with Republican Federalism? It seems that the Constitution was written specifically "Federalist".
Ruggedly handsome?!! UGLY Freddie?!!!!
PLEASE!
My Aunt lived in Tennessee when this frightfully homely charlatan left off being a crony lobbyist to rent a red Ford pickup truck. I was shocked that she was so easily taken in by this rat, especially given she had once warned me about the evils of wolves in pickup trucks when I dated one in high school. Anywho, Ugly Freddie wound up going infamously down in history as one of the laziest, most ill-informed, effortlessly stupid, least effectual Senators in the history of the state of Tennessee. That this guy played US Grant on television does not qualify him for a shot at the Presidency of the United States of America. Hell, it didn't even qualify this rascal for a shot at an EMMY, beaten out by James Gandolfini, who would make a better choice for President than Freddie, if we must choose another actor for the job.
We have no idea whatsoever for what this rascal stands. Ugly Freddie's platform is more obfiscated and convoluted than Gonzo's grand jury purjury. All we know is his penchat for Ford Motor trucks and his celebrity from Law and Order. As regular viewer of Law and Order who still misses Steven Hill, I protest that Ugly Freddie offers very little, and is ruining the tough image of Ford Trucks with his hypocrisy. An F150 can outrun the Limo Ugly Freddie had parked two blocks away from the gullible crowd. America need not take the Ugly Freddie candy.
If Hillary gets nomination Democrates will be in the white house for next eight years!
I for one was very impressed with the debate last night. They changed my mind about almost every issue. It was like a breath of fresh air how they spoke with intelegence and compasion. Normally you only hear typical campain "say what you want to hear" stuff. Fred was very open with Jay Leno and Jay really put some very tough almost bateing questions to him.
All in all I have swithced from being a Dem supporter to a Rep thinker. I prefer someone telling me the truth instead of "we will give you whatever you want as long as you vote for me" sometimes I want chocalate cake but my Doctor knows I should not have it.
Only thing I am going to miss is being popular and laughing with Holly wood
How appropriate that Thompson made his announcement on the Tonight Show. "Lazy Fred" is the Seinfeld of the Republican lot. (He's all about nothing!) It's a shame but not a surprise that anti-war, anti-AIPAC, anti-big government Ron Paul is being marginalized by the mainstream media despite winning cellphone, straw, and countless online polls and by having more Meetup groups than any other candidate. What exactly makes someone a top-tier candidate? Methinks it has to do with who the MSM loves. BTW, has anyone noticed that Bill Clinton and Papa Bush are really close? I think we're being steered to another Clinton in the White House. Obomba (sic) is right on this one--Do we really need another 8 years of those guys? Google Ron Paul!
Sorry, I don't agree with your assessment.
Assuming no skeletons in his closet, Thompson quite possibly can carry a lot more independents than you think with a more than considerable chance of pulling of a folksy Ronald Reagan pose.
As for Giuliani, for ever independent he gains, it is just as likely at least one wingnut stays home.
Question:
Does this piece just represent MJ editors hoping that Giuliani is the nominee, really understanding that he would be more beatable than Thompson?
Your use of the term security-minded (or 9/11-blinded) Democrats who would vote for Giuliani, and the use of "9/11 blinded" just shows how anti American liberals such as your reporter Jon Stein is and your entire staff who allow this type of Insult to Americans and families loved ones that were murdered on that day.
Hillary for President please. Unfortunalty We need a third party ecause these two parties have failed us time and again. We are now Rome and our low rent wage earners the Mexicans not hispanics MEXICANS are now the second most populas in the country surpassing african americans. Just like Rome who brought in slaves to do there work for them and who out numbered them 3 to 1 we will be be overthrown from within in 20 years. The best news is it won't last because China will then take us over because they will need some place to put all there people. The Democates want the Mexicans here because they will vote democrate and why our idiot of a president wants them here is because of greed for low wages. BAAA BAAA go ahead sheep vote another liberal in who will not secure our borders. Your way of life is soon ending. Sooner than you even know.
Rather a strained argument for why the Republican party should move left. The fact is, most of the races Republicans lost in the Senate races in 2006 were steering left, or at least moderate. This argument from a lefty is a red herring.
Mr. Stein,
I think these are too dangerous of times to be electing another actor for President(Reagan being the first). I think the Republican party is looking for a charism guy to win the White House and choose a strong Vice President to do all the dirty work. (Like Cheney and the first Bush) Thank for your article. -Anthony
Guiliani will not get the support of pro-life people, nor that of those who question 9/11 government involvement.
Ole Fred is a great American.He will do a lot to remove the burden of a socialist State that this country has been heading for these last twenty or more years.Stein must be for Hillary
After waiting for Fred Thompson to say something about his intentions to run for U.S. President, I am disappointed in his effort. His not participating in the early campaign, yet being decidedly present at many of the campaign stops to schmooze and glad-hand
voters seems somewhat disengenuous to me. Dishonest, in fact. He does not seem to really know what is going on. My perception of him is:
.He is a version of George Bush.
.He will accept the job but do liitle
to deserve it.
.He will hand off responsibilities to
anyone including private sector
folks with mega bucks.
.He is the kind of "Big Man" who
stands around and says "mmhhuh" and
doesn't have a clue about the
situation.
.He would be attracted more to the
$ for him/his party than for the
American people.
.He will read his lines without
considering their impact on policy.
. His booming voice and commanding
stature will intimidate/impress many
but I don't feel there is anything
there.
Really, it seems that electing this man
will put us in another Bush/Cheney failed government with the corporations
and illegals taking over the country,
making us the new Third-World Kid on the
Block. We should have learned a lesson
by now. Finally, isn't FT a Baker man?
Hello-o-o.
Mr. Thompson seems like a nice man but he is clearly not qualified to be President of the United States. Unlike two-time Governor of California Ronald Reagan, or two-time Governor of Texas George W. Bush, Mr. Thompson appears to have ZERO credible experience as an executive. This lack of executive experience is the fatal flaw of ALL of the Senator candidates and the main reason Americans have historically elected Governors and Generals but almost never members of the U.S. Senate debating society.
Best wishes, R. Chris Barden, Ph.D., J.D.
ultra-liberal loon George McGovern-
Huh? McGovern was a decorated WW2 flyer who flew dozens of bombing missions. He ran against Richard Nixon and lost. War hero, popular senator, a true South Dakotan- who was a liberal, as opposed to conservative Nixon (and we all know how that turned out).
Describing McGovern as a loony is like describing Laura Bush as a murderer just because she killed someone with her car- it's pointless rhetorical dribble designed to p**s off someone, so the real issues are ignored.
It worked for Rove for a time, but it's not working for you.
As a 30 year Democrat turned Independent, and voting for Ron Paul, it is bittersweet to see the Republicans form a circular firing squad, a dubious honor that usually is reserved for the Democrats. I was hoping that someone, anyone, may rise to the top from either party who would recognize and take action and avoid our coming national bankruptcy.
One doesn’t have to be Nostradamus to see how this tragedy is going to play out; President Hillary and Vice President Obama along with a Democratic congress will continue the idiotic financial policies of LBJ Bush until the rest of the world sees that the emperor indeed has no clothes and starts balking at buying our debt. They may even choose to shed our increasingly worthless dollar. Then the real fun will begin.
Many Americans, especially those born into the “Age of Therapy”, won’t blame ourselves for the pitiful state of either party. After the coming financial crash there will be much finger-pointing and posturing and a great hue and cry will arise for government to “do something”. Never mind that 70 years of an overfed, increasingly intrusive, power-grabbing federal government is how we got into the business of being a bankrupt empire to begin with. Thompson will feed the Warfare state and Hillary will feed the Welfare state, both of which are bankrupting us morally and financially, so what’s the difference?
One possible hope is that Ron Paul runs as an Independent and draws a fourth of the electorate or more. Perhaps then both of the Welfare/Warfare parties will realize that there are still many who are sick of financial irresponsibility, dumping trillions in debt on our grandkids and building a military empire that takes 600 billion a year to keep fed.
Fred Thompson in two words...
"Empty Suit"
Isn't it a just a little premature to take shots at this guy. Let's wait and hear his position on resolving the Iraq debacle, on health care, on the economy and, of course, protecting the Constitution. Hey, he should support law and order...Law & Order supports him. Whatever, let's give him some room!
If I were a girl toad.
Voters want authenticity from their candidates. A candidate who is a great actor can deliver that, or at least a good enough vaneer of that. Thompson can do this as Reagan did if the Dems don't have a strong candidate of their own. Kerry lost in '04 at least partially because he followed conventional political wisdom, tacking center in the general election, and voters could smell the insincerity. What Reagan and GW Bush understand, and so many Democrats have not, is that voters are more interested in a candidate who walks the talk than they are in their own self-interest.
Old Ex-Paratrooper - Thompson has a record on the issues, as well as recent position statements, on most of the major issues. He is firmly in the Bush/Cheney camp on Iraq and rather hawkish on the use of the military generally. So, um, no, he gets no free ride around here, any more than other candidate.
Fred Thompson looks a lot like Squidward Tentacles, the character on SpongeBob SquarePants. Maybe he can get a gig on the Show as Squidward's father. I think that could help him in the elections. Maybe, SpongeBob SquarePant should run for President! I would vote for him!
Fred Thompson is one of the more cratchety candidates I've seen. I caught him on GMA this morning. He has something negative to say about pretty much everyone, from his fellow candidates on the right of course through to the left. Aside from that he worries about having to recover from another Clinton era. Umm, peace & prosperity, balanced budgets...yup, wouldn't want to have to go through THAT again!
Although I agree that Thompson is likely no better than the other average Joe lifestyle destroying war-mongers running, nevertheless, he probably has the best chance of beating artillary-Hillary.
And, as much as I don't like Thompson's agenda, which seems to be somewhat to the wrong side of the decidedly bad for average Joe American Reagan legacy, I will most definitely abstain from voting for either if Hillary is the Democratic nominee.
I wouldn't vote for Hillary or anyone else who supported this twisted fiasco in Iraq and especially her, who supported it longer and even more hypocritically than the rest, even if George Bush was running again.
A Thompson versus Clinton matchup would be the classic "much ado about nothing" debate. Neither one has actually made principled stands. They are both in the whorehouse with special interests. And they will speak in sound bites. Instead of rare out of the box stances the box will be reduced to a shoe box.
I will definitely vote for a liberal. Joe Biden’s statements look better than anyone else’s and if he can generate enthusiasm I’d vote for him, but I have doubts he can do that without some big bang in the news. Thompson is a hedger who has laid in wait like the snake that he is for his fellow rat Republicans to show their strength in the polls. He is now ready to strike and eat them alive. Just like what he would do to our country as any two-faced ultra conservative would do. Third-party people ought to get real. It ain’t gonna happen. The Democrats who are running ought to be prodded right out of their bull [deleted] so that real differences will emerge and let voters have real choices. Voting Republican is thanatos for Americans. It doesn’t take even an idiot who lacks short-term memory to recall all the scandals of corruption, what was done in New Orleans, the illegal Iraqi war itself, and all the sleaze of favored armaments and reconstruction contracts awarded, Halliburton, the piking on health care at the least for wounded soldiers from that illegal war, the oil crises that are perpetrated by American corporations, the current mortgage crisis by the greedy rich who have unceasingly been protected by Republicans in political power, unemployment due to Republican economic policies, and I bet you could list ten thousand more. I mean, how much baseness will ordinary Americans take? How much insult will African Americans take? How much further will labor suffer? No more. Republicans ought to be tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail. They don’t like you or your ordinary lives.
Man, all this crap we go through really pissess me off! What can we do though? We take our blows...that's all we can do...for now. But there will come a future when we will finally defeat this vermine that has infested the world today, and on that day, we will have some big scores to settle.The republicans know that they have a problem with Bush.This tragic waste of the flower of our young manhood must cease.That's no excuse to ignore fashion, or to appear in a soiled or poorly-coordinated outfit, or to fail to properly trim one's nose and chest-hair. Many young ironworkers show a remarkable sense of fashion and an obvious basic colour-sense coupled with a basic, practical personal grooming regimen.
While practical concerns may limit their natural adventuresomness in the areas of implants, hairdos, and manicure, but that doesn't begin to stop these vibrant, vital young men from expressiing their own rugged brand of fashion awareness, and if you imagine that they are unaware of the world of fabrics and textures, you are simply mad. After looking down fashionable young women's blouses all day, these young fellows are probably more keenly aware of the subtler nuances of colour and fabric than you are!
I just noiticed they got metal grates put over the windows in this ward. Its a CIA job I can tell by looking. I shoud have not said nothing about cell phones Now they got the woindows blocked off with these metal things. (CIA don't want no signals getting in here exept theires!) I got to find a way to get a communeqe out through the grid to the underground. The underground will pass it on to the predident thouegh secret channels. That way I dont never have to get threough those whitehouse backup generators. I figurethey got 3 shift of CIA operters in that big can up on the pole to intercept my communeqes to the predident. Well they pretty smart and all that but I aint dum and they got to change the shifts and come out of there to pee sooner or later. I got to find a way to stay up fro all day and night when there is a moon out and not cloudy and I can watch them every minute but I got no meds now and it sure is hard to stay up and pay attention but If I can catch them changing shift or coming out to pee I got a message already in my head to zip out to the presdident or at least to the free underground and they got channels and they will overcome the blockage and get threough to the president who is Bush and I know because I voted for Bush. . Thenk you for your preyers. WSRN
He's got superficial similarity to Reagan. And it sounds as if, like "Dutch" he's not much more than a simpleton opportunist actor. They're going to compare him to Reagan. Just watch.
Well we all know Nancy ran the Gipper. I don't think Freddie has a Nancy. But he would have to have someone write his script! And he is scary with his stand on abortion, Iraq, the economy, women's rights, ad nauseum.
Buddy Hinton Sturmgewehr.com??'This unrepetant, transgendered size queen is the single largest KY-Jelly consumer. Hah.. what the world needs is more gay gun nuts.. preferably ones who have stereotypical good taste in hip-hugging leather.
"Ruggedly handsome?!?" OK, I am a straight guy who, unlike Chris Matthews, is not prone to man-crushes. But I think that by virtue of having functioning eyes I can state that calling Fred ruggedly handsome is a stretch. Don't get me wrong, I am not bashing the guy or calling him ugly. I don't stoop to such superficial levels with regards to politics. But come on...
The US can't affort a Republican President in 08...any Republican President. The US can't afford a Republican Congress ins 08 either. They got us into the horrible situation we're in now. They won't get us out. As usual, someone else has to clean up their messes, but they'll still manage to blame others for their failings.
You can almost see the stick up Fred's ass, where the Religious Right makes him dance to their tune. He should be disqualified from running for president, simply because he was a lobbyist in Washington for so many years. In other words, he was no different than the gals in fishnet stockings standing on the street corners, swinging their purses. He is a whore.
Any one of the Democratic candidates has more integrity, intelligence and common sense in their big toes than Fred has in his entire lumbering body. We don't need another vacuous, Southern-fried turd in the White House!
The next Republican President better have some good ideas because this is what is really hppening:
In the U.S. interest rate are going lower, Gold is going higher, Oil is going higher, inflation is going higher, the dollar is going lower. What is wrong with this? Everything! At some point the FED is going to have to raise rates bigtime. We are in a very, very, precarious situation at the moment. I think Gold will tripple to over $2,000 an ounce when the market finally wakes up and sees the real inflation. Last I checked a lower dollar = higher import prices. There is no inflation deflator here. With commodities on fire you can forget about that. Bernanke should have never lowered rates last week. However, the Fed might be doing something that few have talked about. Maybe the Fed has abandoned the dollar to crush the trade deficit. Good luck, it will take 20 years to correct our 6% of GDP trade deficit and move it back to under 1% of GDP, unless you want to seriously disrupt the global economy. We are in for tough times people. Very tough! The FED will not be able to save housing with lower rates. We are in for a 10 year decline in home prices. It is called a cycle!
