Will Iraq's Great Awakening Lead to a Nightmare?
U.S. casualties are down in Iraq. But a retired Army Colonel argues that the surge and American payoffs to Sunni tribal leaders may eventually backfire—producing more instability and possibly a regional war.
American casualties in Iraq have declined dramatically over the last 90 days to levels not seen since 2006, and the White House has attributed the decline to the surge of 35-40,000 U.S. combat troops. But a closer look suggests a different explanation. More than two years of sectarian violence have replaced one country called Iraq with three emerging states: one Kurdish, one Sunni, and one Shiite. This created what a million additional U.S. troops could not: a strategic opportunity to capitalize on the Sunni-Shiite split. So after Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr decided to restrain his Mahdi army from attacking U.S. forces, General David Petraeus and his commanders began cutting deals with Sunni Arab insurgents, agreeing to allow these Sunnis to run their own affairs and arm their own security forces in return for cooperation with U.S. forces against Al Qaeda fighters. As part of the bargain, the Sunni leaders obtained both independence from the hated Shiite-dominated government, which pays far more attention to Tehran's interests than to Washington's, and money—lots of money.
Striking such a "sheikhs for sale" deal (whether they be Sunni or Shiite) is nothing new in the Arab world. The men who ran the British Empire routinely paid subsidies in gold to unruly tribal leaders from the Khyber Pass to the headwaters of the Nile. (Of course, British subsidies were a pittance compared with the billions Britain extracted from its colonies in Africa and Asia.) While the arrangement reached by U.S. military commanders and dubbed the "Great Awakening" has allowed the administration and its allies to declare the surge a success, it carries long-term consequences that are worrisome, if not perilous. The reduction in U.S. casualties is good news. But transforming thousands of anti-American Sunni insurgents into U.S.-funded Sunni militias is not without cost. In fact, the much-touted progress in Iraq could lead to a situation in which American foreign-policy interests are profoundly harmed and the Middle East is plunged into even a larger crisis than currently exists.
First, a warning. We don't know much about developments within Iraq. Military officers who have recently served in Iraq tell me they don't truly understand Iraq's complexity or the duplicitous nature of the Iraqis they work with. In my conservations with them, they raise troubling questions that don't lend themselves to sound-bite answers on talk radio or the evening news. Is the Great Awakening inside the Sunni Arab community the road to Iraq's stability, or is it just a pause for Sunni rearmament and reorganization? Is it a means to secure American military bases inside an emerging Sunni client state generously supplied with cash from Saudi Arabia, a kind of cordon sanitaire along the fault line that separates the Sunni Arab world from Shiite Iran and its beachhead in southern Iraq? Does this development mean America wins when our former Sunni Arab enemies regain power in central Iraq? Or—here's the most disturbing question—will the presumed successes of today be catalysts for yet bloodier civil war inside Iraq or, worse, larger regional war?
With eyes firmly fixed on Jan. 20, 2009—the departure date for this administration—the White House and its generals aren't publicly addressing such policy implications. They're not interested in explaining why the world's most powerful military establishment has resorted to buying off its enemies, effectively supplanting counterinsurgency with cash-based cooptation.
Officers who've served in Iraq warn that the Great Awakening could be transitory. "The Sunni insurgents are following a 'fight, bargain, subvert, fight' approach to get what they want," said one colonel. So Americans need to explore whether U.S. forces are courting long-term strategic success, or if the expedient cash surge is leading U.S. forces into a new phase of conflict that could engulf the region and create a perfect storm.
In four years of occupation and civil war, hundreds of thousands of Arabs, including many Sunnis, have been killed, wounded, or incarcerated. About two million more Arabs, most of them Sunni, have fled the country. How many more Sunni and Shiite Arabs have died over the last two years as a result of the civil war is unknown, but the numbers are likely greater than anyone in the Pentagon or State Department is prepared to admit.
That the Sunni Arab population is tired of fighting is beyond dispute, but winning Sunni Arab hearts and minds in the aftermath of the last four years' violence seems a remote possibility. So, in the absence of the common interest in disposing of Al Qaeda's unwanted foreign fighters and war fatigue, what besides cash motivates the Great Awakening?
Officers familiar with Iraq's Sunni Arab leaders insist these leaders genuinely believe that if left alone by U.S. occupation forces and receiving modest financial support from Saudi Arabia they can eventually crush the Shiite militias and regain their dominant position inside Iraq. If true, the "awakening" may simply be an opportunity for Iraq's Sunni Arabs to consolidate and prepare without American interference for an inevitable, future showdown with the Shiites whether U.S. forces withdraw or not.
A former U.S. Army battalion commander with extensive service in Iraq reports, "It is my sense the Sunni Arab leaders are using the pause in the fight with U.S. forces to take a breather, harden and regroup themselves much like a conventional army would rest and refit after a major battle. Besides, who do the generals in Baghdad think are targeting and killing Iraqi Security Forces? It's the Sunni insurgents. They're just not shooting at us right now."
One of the unspoken assumptions that underpins the "awakening" is that U.S. occupation forces can place untold thousands of Sunni insurgents on the U.S. government's payroll, allowing them to rearm and recuperate inside Sunni-pure enclaves while U.S. forces open a new front in the war against the Shiite militias. Thus far, Tehran has advised its Shiite friends in Iraq to restrain their fighters in the hope the U.S. occupation will end and allow the Shiites to consolidate their victory. The question now is whether the Shiite militias will continue to lie low or risk the kind of campaign against U.S. forces that the Sunnis waged for nearly four years.
No one knows the answer. But it is doubtful Muqtada al-Sadr will do nothing as U.S. forces halt operations against the Shiites' old enemies and allow these enemies to rebuild. He may well step up attacks on Americans, assisted by the Shiite-dominated Iraqi Security Forces. And if that happens, retaliatory attacks by U.S. forces on the Mahdi Army could mobilize the Shiite population behind Muqtada al-Sadr in the fight against their old Sunni Baathist oppressors who are now openly allied with the Americans. In such a battle—a revived civil war—what the majority Shiite Iraqi army will do is another unknown.
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An Iraqi Nightmare?
Yes, that was exactly our purpose. Divide the country and systematically facilitate its destruction. Israel is now stronger - and will be even stronger if we can find the ware-with-all to invade and neuter Iran.
This whole thing is about white American Christian supremacy - destroy Israel’s enemies, one by one.
Fortunately, as in Vietnam – we will lose…
One of the unspoken
One of the unspoken assumptions that underpins the "awakening" is that U.S. occupation forces can place untold thousands of Sunni insurgents on the U.S. government's payroll, allowing them to rearm and recuperate inside Sunni-pure
This is similar to the strategy that created the Taliban. We never learn.
China have threatened us
China have threatened us with nuclear attack, (over Taiwan and Serbia/Kosovo) that our economy is dying (sovereign funds, subprime mortgages, trade and fiscal debt) and that our culture has decayed into something approaching barbarism? Custom Term Paper
A perceptive piece. And the Arab ability to take the conqueror's gold, then look for an opportunity to expel the conqueror, is an old theme which we British know well from our days of Empire.
Two points to add: 1. Peace under a superior invading force is not evidence of honest conquest. Paris was in 1941 quite a pleasant place to live and work. 2. You dismiss, apparently, all Arab leaders as corrupt. Many would observe that recurring US administrations have exhibited most of the features of corruption, from Reagan, through Nixon, up to the current Bush and Cheney family ties with industries benefitting greatly from war and the servicing of war.
One of the best comments on Iraq I've ever read.
Compare it with what you get by CNN, NYT, WP etc. --- Are there so few people eager to dive into complex analysis, thoughtful reflection that it does not bring enough viewers or readers when mainstream media go complex? Or is it a "conspiracy": REAL foreign politics is only for experts, so let us distract the broad audience with trifling, with the simple things they understand.
Excellent article.
One to keep for sure.
Certainly one to be proud of.
I have read 100's of articles on Iraq and this is one of the very best!
Keep up the nice work!
Oh no, but can't you see how important it is that we know Paris Hilton is taking her little brother into a XXX sex shop to buy her own sex video?
Or that Brittany Spears is making out with Madonna on stage because she has NO TALENT. (Why didn't Frank Sinatra make out on stage with another man I wonder?)
Can't you see how important this all is?
Did you know Brad Pitt was jealous of Jennifer Anniston's success and became insecure? That's why he ran off with Angelina Jolie.
Come on ... can't you see how important these things are? Who cares that 20 million illegal immigrants are here, that we send women into combat to get blown up, that we're losing two wars, that our schools produced functional illiterates, that Katrina's social chaos shows us an ugly page from the future, that Russia and China have threatened us with nuclear attack, (over Taiwan and Serbia/Kosovo) that our economy is dying (sovereign funds, subprime mortgages, trade and fiscal debt) and that our culture has decayed into something approaching barbarism?
If people really knew the truth they probably couldn't function, shop at the mall, watch Dancing With the Stars or call Suzy on their cell phone to talk about Paris Hilton.
A poignant piece. As long as the money holds out and the troops and hired killers stay the US can maintain the status quo, bad as it is.
So as the American Empire sinks into the quicksand, still eyeing the mirage of 'victory', we bid fond adieu.
"...the conditions are ideal for a spin-off war that could cause us one day to wonder how we Americans could have ever been so stupid as to occupy Iraq."
The military-industrial complex stupid? Right. Stupid like a fox! Better make that a dodo bird.
I tire of leftist conspiracy thinkers who blame "white" American Christians. [Go and learn what this means: I desire mercy and not sacrifice.][If at all possible, live peaceably among all men.] and the biggie duo: [seek ye first the kingdom of God][My kingdom is not of this world]. So, in conclusion, posters like "An Iraqi Nightmare...?" fail to see the differentiation between a Christian born again in spirit and a Christian in name/tradition only. The latter is setting up America if not the whole world for persecution of the former.
Pardon me, but for years now I pondered the efficacy of splitting Iraq into three distinct provinces: Kurdish, Shiite, and Sunni. My reasoning was simple: if they must fight amongst one another, separate them like children, each to his own room nearest the things he/she desires: Sunnis live nearest Saudi Arabia, Shiites live nearest their beloved Iran, and Kurds succeed or fail in the northern part by choosing to aggravate or coexist with Turkey.
Perhaps it is not so simple, but it seems Iraq as we know it has been incapable of peaceably existing with itself under anything but authoritarian rule/regimes for at least the last six hundred years.
Nonetheless, I am not a scholar on Iraq nor have any desire to be such. One of my hopes is that Iraqis can work out a solution that will bring reassurance to men, women, and children that there might be no risk of death by doing something so basic as going to work, shopping in the market, or attending schools. And yes, I know that our current administration does not seem to be helping to affect such positive change, yet we can blame our nation for many problems in Iraq and that still does not change Iraq's tumultuous history since before the major settlements of the Americas.
Re Col. McGregor's post-surge analysis:
What is going on tactically in Baghdad and surrounds strikes me as a bait and switch. Petreaus' COIN doctrine called for 'hold and re-build' under Iraqi army and police protection. In practice the Kurd and Shiite armies are linguistically and politically separate entities, with sectarian agendas, rivalries, and different enemies. Neither IA or IP are likely to be safe in JAM or Sunni 'concerned citizen' controlled neighborhoods, except by local agreement.
Consequently the US force appears to be mostly stalled in place, vouchsafing a patchwork of ad hoc ceasefires between armed neighborhood and gov't factions, unable to close the security gap in the southern (Yousefiya) belt.
By expending our mainforce reserves, we've managed to block and jack the teetering civil war back to a 2005 state of violence, with an unprecedented condition of armed sectarian neighborhoods, refugees and squatters.
But a tipping point? Neither Petreaus or Crocker are claiming any such thing, while the window of opportunity begins to swing closed.
Wow ! Some thoughtful and in depth commentary!
I need to take a deep breath and prepare for the possibility of even responding intelligently here.
Oh please is there any bad scenario this guy didn't think of putting into the mix. Turkey is really going to ditch the US and Europe to stick with Iran and Syria. And if the sunnis are just regrouping why kill your best fighters, they could just keep fighting it out, if the surge was showing at this point not to be working, everyone here and in the middle east knew that Bush could not have sustained keeping troops in Iraq until the end of his term. It was obvious to all that the US was leaving, so why keep them in the fight, if it was for money, everyone knows that the Sunni rich oil states would be more and has been more than happy bankrolling then to the tone of billions. If the US does have to or plan to leave, why not fortify the Sunni's, do what the Iranian's have done in Lebanon make someone else fight your battle, walk away with Iran and most of the middle east busy fighting a civil war, with the United Stares in the end just dealing with the winner, which would take years to decide. The same thing we did in the 80's, Iran was to busy fighting Saddam to be a trouble for the West.
The loon libs would prefer another Rwanda or Somalia or Sudan or one of the many other Clixon regime change suckcess stories, of course. They won't get one, but that IS what their natural bent toward cowardice would prefer. Oh hell. HILLARY HAPPENS.
The key (same as it ever was) to long term success is the Iraqi Army, police and court system. If those things don't get up to speed, it will be another long bloodbath, ala Lebanon. Less blood than during Saddam's reign, but still a mess decades in the making. Maybe geniuses Wilson and Plame have an answer, for such lost Oil For EU years of UN neglect? Naw. Too much trouble. Next!
That you are neither a scholar of Iraq nor have any desire to be one is obvious, but whatever kind of Christian you are, born again or name only, you should at least be concerned with the fate of Iraqi Christians. It is one of the oldest Christian communities in the world, receiving the faith directly from St. Thomas, and in spirit and practice undoubtedly one of the closest to the original followers of Jesus. Sadly, they have been devastated over the past four years, perhaps beyond renewal, for the mere crime of being co-religionists of the detested invaders.
"...that could cause us one day to wonder how we Americans could have ever been so stupid as to occupy Iraq." In this regard, when will the Senate Intelligence Committee finish phase 2 of its report? Americans were stupid because we were misled by liars with ulterior motives. This must be officially elucidated before it happens again.
Oh let me see, if we hadn’t we wouldnive and then would not havta but if we don’t sompin will happen but then again if we do sumpin it might not work and/or make things worse, but Oh my God… I got the answer… Wring of the hands will provide comfort and is excellent personal solutional situational erotica… I feel good already. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!
Gregg, you've obviously missed my statement about real Christians being persecuted due to the people claiming to be Christians. Re-read, please, before making such an irresponsible retort, though very informative. This article is not about Christian persecution worldwide as it's unlikely to be of interest to the leftist media...why is that...because right-wingers have claimed some sort of moral superiority endangering Christians by wrongly associating themselves with them when they have very un-Christlike policies in place. I also have no disregard for the plight of fellow believers, and any implication otherwise is misguided. I will repeat: "One of my hopes is that Iraqis can work out a solution that will bring reassurance to men, women, and children that there might be no risk of death by doing something so basic as going to work, shopping in the market, or attending schools." I suppose the thing that bothers me most is that President Bush's dad was of the mind not to invade Iraq due to the legitimate consequences thereof, and yet his son found himself manipulated to do the very thing his dad refused to do. Iraq is a mess. The question still holds: what should or can be done to clean it up? Who? Where? When? How? Is it better for American troops to leave now? Or is there presence a necessary thorn in the side? Are Iraqis to blame for their own violence or are outside influences igniting and fueling the flames? Are there adequate means for the now oppressed and impoverished in Iraq to seek sanctuary in other nations including the United States or are they being turned away and left to fend for themselves? The complexities are staggering and not even those suffering are likely to know what is the best course out of this mess let alone some guy in some comfortable state thousands of miles from the trouble. (That would be me and perhaps many of my fellow commentators.)
Marou Awanis and Geneva Jalal. Please read more about them. These two Armenian Christian women were shot to death unprovoked by Unity Resources Group, an Australian corporate mercenary outfit based in the United Arab Emirates ("security services"). This follows the massacre of 17 Iraqis by American mercenary services Blackwater about a month prior. If I was an Iraqi, I would hope to awaken from this nightmare. My question to anyone: is this just practice by the politico-corporate entities in the West intended on us in the future?
Insightful piece Colonel.
The Establishment Media love sound bytes and one sentence synopses of complex issues. Their latest mantra has become "the surge is working."
The monthly total of Iraqi civilian deaths and American GI deaths has been reduced by approximately 50% since the full complement of "surge" troops arrived in country. That is a significant improvement -- but only in the context that any reduction in wholesale slaughter is an improvement. In fact, the situation continues to be wholly unacceptable. The "improved" conditions translate to roughly twenty U.S. troops and one thousand Iraqi civilians dying every month at present. One thousand civilians killed per month is hardly worthy of being called a "successful" or "working" strategy. Naturally the Iraqis don't concern themselves much American occupation troop deaths. That statistic is irrelevant to them in regard to whether or not their society is functioning. For the most part it is not. Not only are thousands of Iraqi civilians dying, but there's the comparatively small inconvenience of public water and electrical services remaining intermittent and unreliable four years after the American invasion. Those services functioned satisfactorily while Saddam Hussein was in power. The unemployment rate is variously reported as being between twenty and fifty percent and cases of malnutrition are above pre-invasion levels. Post-invasion Iraq is a basket case and a U.S. government/media paint job isn't going to put it back together. Oh yeah, I know, just give it more time. In seventy five years it'll all be straightened out.
On this date in 1814 General A. Jackson declared martial law in New Orleans, in preparation for an attack by the British Army. Fresh from its defeat of the world's other superpower, France, the British Army stood astride the globe, alone and invincible. A bare month later the British Army attacked Jackson's force outside of New Orleans, with an arrogant, poorly informed leadership and likewise battle plan. Plowing headfirst into Jackson's impassioned irregulars hidden behind a high, stout entrenchment, red coated Scotsmen carrying scaling ladders and the belief that the shock and awe of seeing them approach would itself alone scatter the conglomerated Louisiana defenders, the best equipped, best trained, best lead soldiers in the world were shot dead by the hundreds.
When the deaths reached over 2000, including the generals who had gotten them into such a fiasco, the British withdrew from the worst defeat in their entire imperial history.
Amazing, isn’t it, what can happen when local population’s homes and families are threatened.
Personally, General Paetreus is a classic preponant of counter insurgency. Unfortunately he serves a President who's official policy is not to negotiate with "bad people" and his source of tactical and political advice is Prayer. Well, that's not going to cut it. All I can say is our next President is either going to have to be very smart or willing to listen to good advice and have the moral framework to come up with a viable way forward for American foriegn policy. Being a good listener would be a starter. No more hillbilly preachers or people whom beleive the answers to the worlds problems will be revealed in prayer.I want to vote for a analytic thinker next go-around.
There is definitely a winner to this sure to be intractably drawn out war, and that's the military's supplier's in the military industrial complex, who already own the majority of US media outlets. The obscenely rich who own these companies will bleed more trillions out of the American tax payer and dance on the American middle classes grave. It'll be the serfs and the nobles all over again, how can the starving afford to fight for civil rights?
iraqi will never go to civil war...it is the iranian who are causing the killing of innocent iraqis with their best friends the zioints! iraq will be iraq for ever and ever...the name of iraq says it all! it means DEEP ROOTS! LONG LIVE IRAQ and shame on those who are causing wars and opperssion to humanity!
I just don't understand why this, and most, reporters on Iraq let the war-wagers off the hook by not stating the best estimate for Iraqi casualties, which is, by reasonable extrapolation of the Johns Hopkins' School of Public Health's definitive estimate, in excess of one-million. (It was also likely one-million as a result of bill clinton's sanctions, one-half of which were children.)
Why can't reporters shut-up and tell it like it is?
sp
We are, like good little soldiers, destroying the Middle East for the furtherment of Israel and its desires.And to maintain the ongoing and continual war that the Bush Admin. wants.War for profit!
"The Iraqi government, eager to claim credit for the decline in violence, offers returnees free transportation to Iraq, provides protection to the bus convoys and gives families $800 each to help with resettling.
But American and U.N. officials warn that a big return of refugees could rekindle sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiites and that some returnees have found their homes occupied by members of the other Muslim sect. Even the Iraqi government acknowledges it cannot handle a huge influx.
"If we look at the past weeks, people have run out of money and have felt the necessity to return," said Astrid Van Genderen Stort, a UNHCR spokeswoman.
Nearly 2 million Iraqis are believed to have fled to neighboring Arab countries since 2003 to escape the Sunni insurgency and sectarian violence. Most went to Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. About 2 million more are believed to have moved to other parts of Iraq.
The reasons to stay away are compelling: 57 percent of families had been threatened directly, and 53 percent had survived bombings, the report said. Though violence has dropped dramatically in Baghdad and surrounding areas, bombings, mortar attacks and gunshots are a daily occurrence."
OK, Time out for a minute. If you really want to know why we're in this war in Iraq look at who's making the money. This money doesn't just go over to Iraq and disappear. Almost all the billions of dollars we spend on this war go to suppliers here in the United States. So: first check out who the suppliers are, second check out who contributed to the Bush/Cheney election campaigns and third check out the "Carlyle Group" (who they invest in and who's on the board).
I agree with you that this writer's snide comment about the Orthodox and by association the Oriental Church is indicative of the unschooled and ignorant mindsset of American protestantism. Protestants almost universally will tell you that they are Christian because they believe in Christ. What an aboration--If this is what they believe makes you a Christian then indeed Satan would qualify. They would feel more comfortable wrapping themselves in the American flag as an artical of faith, than to acknoledge that Russia is one of he most devout, pious Christian nations in the world---even after the damage done by the communists. How sad. No wonder that the Moslems call America "Great Satan".
The most clear-headed analysis of the situation if Iraq I've read.
I guess the worst case scenario is our whole force being cut off in Iraq and being forced to surrender. Given the incompetence and incompetence among both the civilian and military leadership in the country, that could perhaps happen.
The Cheney cabal is not incompetent.
They didn't just miss a turn and disband the Iraqi army. They did it on purpose. They wanted a Sunni-Shia scism. What was keeping that from happening was the iron control of Saddam.
Presto Chango! Get rid of Saddam and Oil prices will sky-rocket and military contractors will thrive.
It was a no-brainer for them. Maybe Cheney thought (with his bad heart), "I am a walking dead man, so your children should be too."
Gregg. Looks like you are putting one religion above Humanity. Is it Humane to disregard the plight of people that follow other religions? If this is the divisive way we go, the whole world will be at war because of intolerance towards each others' religion.
The only thing that will start a regional war is if Iran decides to use one of its nuclear bombs 5 years from now. YES, Iran is building a bomb. Wake up people. Iran must be stopped!
What an excellent piece of Journalism, and spot on, much of what was written here was at one point a major discussion on Paul Krugmans old forum NYT, there were many saying that what we are going to see a Middle War over what has been related here in this excellent article.
Little did I dream that the Bush administration would try and buy the peace that he desperately needs to justify his policies and his actions. Can anyone predict without blinking a Middle East conflict that will consume our Military and lead to a NUCLEAR EXCHANGE, ISRAEL WILL BE THE FIRST TO USE THEM, thats my thought; to survive what is coming. The second Holocaust.
And we started it under false pretenses with Israel being Complicit in the scheme.
Excellent Article!
GO RON PAUL!!!!
I hope this crisis will be
I hope this crisis will be resolved pretty soon. Mike at chicago storage and upvc windows guide.
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What is it that gives America the right to occupy a foreign land like Iraq and set up a puppet government?
Why does America keep talking about 'freedom' and at the same time hold the Iraqis and palestinians(using its fav pet, Israel) under slave-like conditions?
It may sound like a cliche but America is working real hard to become the Evil Empire of the 21st century.
But empires never last (and thank god for that)...
Leads to a Nightmare
Col. Macgregor has written many accounts of the failures in Iraq. They're all highly critical of our ground commanders.
The colonel also prepared the original invasion plan for SECDEF Rumsfeld; but only after Gen. Tommy Franks couldn't come up with anything other than the '91 invasion plan. The original plan was later severely sanitized; it called for an entire division (about 15K troops) to be placed in Baghdad after it was secured in 2003. Not only was this not done, but Gen. Franks immediately began the withdrawal of forces back to Kuwait: some 30 to 40K. The looting that occurred while the generals hid in old Saddam palaces later became the insurgency.
Six full years of nonstop bungling, for which no one has been punished or even reprimanded. They made examples a few from Abu Ghraib, but for the most part failure has been steadfastly rewarded. Another reason the future in Iraq looks dim.
power or fear
Problems are going to continue until there is a powerfully local government that is either supported by the majority of the people or feared.
gooooooooood thanks
gooooooooood thanks
