Blogs | Mother Jones Mother Jones logo en Friday Cat Blogging - 28 November 2014 <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Today's theme is cat TV. On the left, Hilbert is camped out in front of the small TV in the dining room, perhaps hoping for a rerun of the squirrel docudrama that aired last week. On the right, Hopper is entranced by the big-screen TV in the study, probably watching the hummingbird reality series that seems to air constantly around here. It never gets old, though.</p> <p>Have a happy black-and-white Friday. Also, a happy gray-and-white Friday. And be sure to watch lots of cat-approved TV.</p> <p><img align="left" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_hilbert_2014_11_28.jpg" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 5px 4px 5px 0px;"><img align="middle" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_hopper_2014_11_28.jpg" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 5px 0px 5px 4px;"></p></body></html> Kevin Drum Fri, 28 Nov 2014 20:05:04 +0000 Kevin Drum 265631 at Chart of the Day: Oil Prices Are Plunging Thanks to OPEC <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>OPEC finished up its winter meeting yesterday and <a href="" target="_blank">decided not to cut oil production.</a> This came as a surprise to those who still think of OPEC as the maniacal oil hawks who roiled global petroleum markets in the 70s, but less so to those who know that cartels are notoriously difficult to hold together&mdash;especially when it's a leaky cartel that's missing <img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_brent_2014_11_28.jpg" style="margin: 20px 0px 15px 30px;">some key producers. In any case, OPEC members couldn't agree on just who would pay the price of cutting production, and the Saudis, <a href="" target="_blank">for reasons still unclear,</a> were unwilling to shoulder the burden themselves this time around. So OPEC oil production will remain unchanged.</p> <p>The result? After six months of declining oil prices, we suddenly got plunging oil prices. Why? Not so much because of the shale oil revolution in the US. For all the attention it gets, fracking has increased global oil production by only a few percent and would normally have only a moderate effect on prices. Unfortunately, these aren't normal times: in addition to a small increase in the oil supply, the global economic slowdown has depressed demand. That's a bigger factor than fracking, and with European and Asian economies looking increasingly fragile, not one that seems likely to be corrected anytime soon.</p> <p>How low will oil go? No one knows. When will it turn up again? Probably not until the global economy starts to grow at a decent pace. And no one knows when that will happen either.</p> <p>For more, check out Brad Plumer, who has a <a href="" target="_blank">much more detailed explanation of the both the politics and the economics of the oil scene here.</a></p></body></html> Kevin Drum Economy Energy Fri, 28 Nov 2014 19:40:35 +0000 Kevin Drum 265626 at Good News from the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p><img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_cigarette_smokers.jpg" style="margin: 8px 0px 15px 30px;">Everyone's favorite CDC publication, the <em>Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report</em>, passes along some great news today: <a href="" target="_blank">cigarette smoking is down.</a> Among Americans 18 and older, only 17.8 percent now smoke cigarettes, down from 20.9 percent in 2005. What's more, the proportion of daily smokers declined from 16.9 percent to 13.7 percent, and among daily smokers the number of cigarettes smoked also declined. By region, the highest level of smoking is found in the Midwest, followed by the South, the Northeast, and the West. Poor people smoke more than non-poor, and generally speaking, those with less education smoke more than those with more education.</p> <p>In case you're unpersuaded by all this, I've appended a trivial chart on the right showing the overall prevalence of smoking. It's down. Are you persuaded now?</p> <p><img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_gay_straight_cigarette_smokers.jpg" style="margin: 8px 0px 15px 30px;">In any case, you're probably not surprised by this news. So here's something a little more interesting: it turns out the prevalence of smoking is considerably higher among the gay population than the straight population (26 percent vs. 17 percent). Is this common knowledge? Maybe, but I didn't know it, and I sure wouldn't have guessed it. Of course, all the gay people I know are well-educated West Coast folks, who probably have a very low rate of smoking regardless of sexual orientation. So I suppose I'm just too cloistered to have any clue about this.</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Health Fri, 28 Nov 2014 18:01:29 +0000 Kevin Drum 265621 at Everyone Loves Charts! Except For Those Who Don't. <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>This post is going to end up being insufferably nerdly, so bear with me. <a href="" target="_blank">It comes via Justin Wolfers,</a> who tells us about a new study showing that if you present information, it's more persuasive if it includes a chart. Since my Wikipedia entry says I'm known for "offering original statistical and graphical analysis," this is thrilling news&mdash;especially since I've never really believed that my charts have influenced anyone who didn't already believe what I was saying in the first place.</p> <p>So let's go to the source. First off, I love the title of the paper:</p> <blockquote> <p><a href="" target="_blank">Blinded with science: Trivial graphs and formulas increase ad persuasiveness and belief in product efficacy</a></p> </blockquote> <p>Trivial graphs! Roger that. And sure enough, the researchers' first experiment suggests that if you tell people a drug reduces illness by 40 percent, they're more likely to believe it if you include a bar chart that shows one bar 40 percent lower than the other. Unfortunately, this conclusion comes via a tiny, non-random sample, and the responses are weirdly contradictory. On a scale of 1-9, the chart group rates the drug only slightly more effective than the non-chart group. But on a question that directly asks if the drug works, the chart group is far more positive. What's up with that?</p> <p>But this isn't yet the truly nerdly part. I'm just picking the usual statistical nits. Next up, the researchers tried to find out if the chart group is more persuaded simply because the chart helps them remember the information better. Long story short, that's not the case. Everyone remembers the information about equally well. But wait: this group is even worse: it's a tiny, non-random sample of university freshman lab rats, who are very much not typical of the population, especially when it comes to assessing quantitative information. What's more, assuming I'm interpreting the typo-laden concluding sentence correctly, the chart group displays 79 percent retention vs. 70 percent for the non-chart group. That sure sounds like a possibly significant difference. It's only the tiny sample size that makes it worthless. But frankly, the tiny sample size probably makes this whole study worthless.</p> <p>But this <em>still</em> isn't the truly nerdly part. Here it is, and I'm going to excerpt directly from the study:</p> <p><img align="middle" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_blinded_science.jpg" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 15px 0px 15px 15px;"></p> <p>Say what? This molecule allegedly has 29 (!) helium atoms? Come on, man. I took one look at that and just laughed. Then I looked at the fake chemical formula, and they got it wrong. It's got 29 <em>hydrogen</em> atoms. Or does it? Who knows. Now, it's true that the group for this study was recruited at a shopping mall, and I'll grant that your average mall rat isn't too likely to notice this. Still. WTF? That's at least two typos; a ridiculously small and non-random sample; and contradictory results depending on how the participants were queried.</p> <p>I'm going to keep using charts because they convey a lot of information efficiently to people who like charts. Plus, I like charts. But are these charts actually persuading anyone of anything? I'm unpersuaded.</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Fri, 28 Nov 2014 16:54:17 +0000 Kevin Drum 265616 at After a Year Off, the Triumphant Return of My Annual Black Friday Post <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p><img align="middle" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 10px 0px 5px 1px;"></p> <p>According to the retail industry, "Black Friday" is the day when retail profits for the year go from red to black. Are you skeptical that this is really the origin of the term? You should be. After all, the term <em>Black ___day</em>, in other contexts, has always signified something terrible, like a stock market crash or the start of the Blitz. Is it reasonable to think that retailers deliberately chose this phrase to memorialize their biggest day of the year?</p> <p>Not really. But to get the real story, we'll have to trace its origins back in time. Here's a 1985 article from the <em>Philadelphia Inquirer</em>:</p> <blockquote> <p>[Irwin] Greenberg, a 30-year veteran of the retail trade, says it is a Philadelphia expression. "It surely can't be a merchant's expression," he said. A spot check of retailers from across the country suggests that Greenberg might be on to something.</p> <p>"I've never heard it before," laughed Carol Sanger, a spokeswoman for Federated Department Stores in <strong>Cincinnati</strong>&hellip;"I have no idea what it means," said Bill Dombrowski, director of media relations for Carter Hawley Hale Stores Inc. in <strong>Los Angeles</strong>&hellip;From the National Retail Merchants Association, the industry's trade association in <strong>New York</strong>, came this terse statement: "Black Friday is not an accepted term in the retail industry&hellip;"</p> </blockquote> <p>Hmm. So as recently as 1985 it wasn't in common use nationwide. It was only in common use in Philadelphia. But why? If we go back to 1975, the <em>New York Times</em> informs us that it has something to do with the Army-Navy game. The <img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 20px 20px 15px 30px;">gist of the story is that crowds used to pour into Philadelphia on the Friday after Thanksgiving to shop, they'd stay over to watch the game on Saturday, and then go home. It was the huge crowds that gave the day its bleak name.</p> <p>But how old is the expression? When did it start? If we go back yet another decade we can find a Philly reference as early as 1966. An advertisement that year in the<em> American Philatelist</em> from a stamp shop in Philadelphia starts out: "'Black Friday' is the name which the Philadelphia Police Department has given to the Friday following Thanksgiving Day. It is not a term of endearment to them. 'Black Friday' officially opens the Christmas shopping season in center city, and it usually brings massive traffic jams and over-crowded sidewalks as the downtown stores are mobbed from opening to closing."</p> <p>But it goes back further than that. A couple of years ago I got an email from a Philadelphia reader who recalled the warnings he got from the older women at Wanamaker's department store <a href="" target="_blank">when he worked there in 1971:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>They warned me to be prepared for the hoards of obnoxious brats and their demanding parents that would alight from the banks of elevators onto the eighth floor toy department, all racing to see the latest toys on their way to visit Santa. The feeling of impending doom sticks with me to this day. <strong>The experienced old ladies that had worked there for years called it "Black Friday."</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>"For years." But how many years? Ben Zimmer collects some evidence that the term was already in common use by 1961 (common enough that Philly merchants were trying to change the term to "Big Friday"), and passes along an interview with Joseph Barrett, who recounted his role in popularizing the expression <a href="" target="_blank">when he worked as a reporter in Philadelphia:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>In 1959, the old <em>Evening Bulletin</em> assigned me to police administration, working out of City Hall. Nathan Kleger was the police reporter who covered Center City for the Bulletin. In the early 1960s, Kleger and I put together a front-page story for Thanksgiving and we appropriated the police term "Black Friday" to describe the terrible traffic conditions. Center City merchants complained loudly to Police Commissioner Albert N. Brown that drawing attention to traffic deterred customers from coming downtown. I was worried that maybe Kleger and I had made a mistake in using such a term, so I went to Chief Inspector Albert Trimmer to get him to verify it.</p> </blockquote> <p>So all the evidence points in one direction. The term originated in Philadelphia, probably sometime in the 50s, and wasn't in common use in the rest of the country until decades later. And it did indeed refer to something unpleasant: the gigantic Army-Navy-post-Thanksgiving day crowds and traffic jams, which both retail workers and police officers dreaded. The retail industry originally loathed the term, and the whole "red to black" fairy tale was tacked on sometime in the 80s by an overcaffeinated flack trying to put lipstick on a pig that had gotten a little too embarrassing for America's shopkeepers. The first reference that I've found to this usage <a href="" target="_blank">was in 1982,</a> and by the early 90s it had become the official story.</p> <p>And today everyone believes it, which is a pretty good demonstration of the power of corporate PR. But now you know the real story behind Black Friday.</p> <p><strong>UPDATE:</strong> And what's the future of Black Friday? Global domination! <a href="" target="_blank">According to the redoubtable folks at eDigitalResearch,</a> three-quarters of UK consumers have now heard of Black Friday. And they're treating it with the same respect we do. <a href="" target="_blank">From <em>Marketing</em> magazine today:</a> "Black Friday is living up to its ominous name, with police being called to supermarkets across the UK, websites crashing and at least two arrests being made for violent behaviour, as bargain-hungry shoppers vie for the best deals." Boo-yah!</p> <p>&nbsp;</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Economy Fri, 28 Nov 2014 15:00:15 +0000 Kevin Drum 265611 at Washington's Football Team Would Like You to Know That It Just Doesn't Give a Shit <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Here are three things the United States has:</p> <p><strong>1. </strong>An indefensible history of slaughtering Native Americans.</p> <p><strong>2. </strong>A holiday called Thanksgiving wherein we celebrate some of our earliest slaughterers, albeit not for their slaughtering.</p> <p><strong>3. </strong>A capital, Washington DC.</p> <p>The football team in Washington DC has an offensive, racist name; a slur against Native Americans.</p> <p>This Thanksgiving&mdash;the holiday that for many represents <a href="" target="_blank">"hundreds of years of genocide and oppression against Native Americans"</a>&mdash;that football team&mdash;the one with the awful racist name offensive to Native Americans&mdash;sent out the following tweet.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"> <p>From our family to yours, have a very safe and Happy <a href="">#Thanksgiving</a>. <a href="">#HappyThanksgiving</a> <a href="">#HTTR</a> <a href=""></a></p> &mdash; Washington Redskins (@Redskins) <a href="">November 27, 2014</a></blockquote> <p><a href="" target="_blank">Dan Snyder</a>: Just as the pilgrims intended.</p></body></html> Mixed Media Sports Fri, 28 Nov 2014 04:28:07 +0000 Ben Dreyfuss 265601 at This Map Shows What People Are Most Thankful For In Every State <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Earlier this week, Facebook's data team crunched the numbers on what <a href="" target="_blank">users say they are most "thankful" for</a>. The top two overall results were predictably "friends" and "family," which is heartwarming but sort of a snooze.</p> <p><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/10330395_10152867518283415_7996717384469927886_n.png"></p> <div class="caption"><em>Facebook</em></div> <p>The state-by-state breakdown, however, is pretty interesting in a meaningless but entertaining sort of way.</p> <p><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/1383133_10152867552048415_4093141570771670460_n.png"></p> <div class="caption"><em>Facebook</em></div> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Some observations:</p> <p><strong>1. </strong>To me the most disheartening is Kentucky where people are grateful for their "work family."</p> <p><strong>2. </strong>There are apparently a lot of magicians in Ohio and Alaska who "don't do it for the money."</p> <p><strong>3. </strong>Maryland is thankful for having "a sound mind" which I can only take to mean some sort of criticism of its neighboring states. "Look, look, Delaware and Virginia are dispossessed. We're just happy to be the state that keeps it all together."</p> <p><strong>4. </strong>A lot of people in Illinois are apparently trying to passive-aggressively use Facebook to get out of the dog house with their significant other.</p> <p>Head on over to <a href="" target="_blank">Facebook</a> for the methodology and some other cool visualizations.</p> <p>(via <a href="" target="_blank"><em>The Atlantic</em></a>)</p></body></html> Mixed Media Maps Thu, 27 Nov 2014 20:12:18 +0000 Ben Dreyfuss 265596 at Thanksgiving Cat Blogging - 27 November 2014 <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>This year we have new catblogging stars, and thus new cats dreaming about the traditional turkey clipart. In case you're curious, no, I didn't pose Hilbert. This is his natural way of sleeping.</p> <p>Have a nice day, everyone, and please avoid doing any shopping. Tomorrow is early enough. Happy Thanksgiving.</p> <p><img align="middle" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_hopper_hilbert_2014_11_27_0.jpg" style="margin: 15px 0px 5px 90px;"></p></body></html> Kevin Drum Thu, 27 Nov 2014 17:00:05 +0000 Kevin Drum 265586 at I'm Pretty Thankful This Year. Here's Why. <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>You might not expect someone who was diagnosed with cancer a few weeks ago to be feeling especially thankful right now. And it's true that I'm not excited about either the cancer itself or the fairly miserable effects of the weekly chemotherapy that's treating it. Nevertheless, this episode of my life has gotten me thinking about thankfulness, and it's been on my mind for a while now. I know this is a little out of character, but allow me to share this with you in my usual bloggish way today.</p> <p>The whole thing started on the evening of October 17th, when I sneezed hard and injured my back. On the morning of Saturday the 18th I couldn't move enough to get out of bed. Here's what happened next.</p> <p>Marian called 911. Within ten minutes a troop of firefighters and paramedics were at our door. They hauled me downstairs on a stretcher, and ten minutes later I was in the emergency room. Over the next couple of hours I was tended to by an attentive staff of nurses and doctors. Blood was drawn, X-rays were taken, <img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_thanksgiving.jpg" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 20px 0px 15px 30px;">painkillers were administered. By a little after noon, a preliminary diagnosis of possible multiple myeloma had been made and I was admitted to the hospital.</p> <p>The hospital was clean and efficient. My room was comfortable and private and had plenty of room for visitors. Over the course of the next few days, a rotating squadron of nurses took care of me. Biopsies were done. Medication was prescribed. A kyphoplasty was performed to stabilize my back. The myeloma diagnosis was confirmed on Thursday, and I was started on chemotherapy a few hours later. It was superb, unstinting care.</p> <p>The day after I was released from the hospital, Marian and I went shopping and spent several thousand dollars on new furniture that my back could tolerate. A few days after that we got an enormous bill for the hospital stay, but it was nearly entirely paid for by insurance. The balance was something we could easily afford.</p> <p>In short, everything that happened after that fateful sneeze has demonstrated just how lucky I am. I got immediate, skilled treatment. I have great health insurance. I have a good job and no money problems. I work at home and can set my own hours&mdash;and I even have a job I like so much it actually <em>helps</em> me weather the treatment. I work for editors who are completely understanding about what I'm going through and want only for me to recover. I have family and friends who care about me and are endlessly willing to help. And most of all, I have a wife who loves me and is always, always, always there for me.</p> <p>There is nothing more I could want. I'm even thankful for the sneeze. It hurt like hell, but it's the thing that got me to the hospital in the first place. Without it, I wouldn't be recovering as I write this.</p> <p>So sure: cancer sucks. But how many people who go through it have all this? Not many. Some have money problems. Some have work problems. Some are on their own. Some have lousy or nonexistent health insurance. Some get inadequate treatment. I have none of those problems. I am lucky almost beyond belief.</p> <p>And one more thing: health care is suddenly a lot more real to me than ever before. Sure, I've always favored universal health care as a policy position. But now? It's all I can do to wonder why anyone, no matter how principled their beliefs, would want to deny the kind of care I've gotten to even a single person. Not grudging, bare-bones care that's an endless nightmare of stress and bill collectors. Decent, generous care that the richest country in the richest era in human history can easily afford.</p> <p>Why wouldn't you want that for everyone? It beggars the imagination.</p> <p>In any case, that's what I got&mdash;that and a lot more. And I am thankful for it. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Thu, 27 Nov 2014 11:00:06 +0000 Kevin Drum 265561 at The Looming Olive Oil Apocalypse <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>The world's most celebrated olive oil comes from sun-drenched groves of Italy. But Italy is also a hotbed of olive oil subterfuge, counterfeit, and adulteration&mdash;and has been since Roman times, as Tom Muellar showed in an eye-opening <a href="">2007 New Yorker piece</a> (which grew into a book called <a href=""><em>Extra Virginity: The Sublime and Scandalous World of Olive Oil</em></a>.) &nbsp;Next year, getting real olive oil from Italy is going to be even harder than usual. Here's the <em>LA Times' </em>Russ Parsons:</p> <blockquote> <p>As a result of what the Italian newspaper <em>La Repubblica</em> is calling &ldquo;The Black Year of Italian Olive Oil,&rdquo; the olive harvest through much of Italy has been devastated&mdash;down 35% from last year.&nbsp;</p> </blockquote> <p>The reason is a kind of perfect storm (so to speak) of rotten weather through the nation:</p> <blockquote> <p>When the trees were turning flowers to fruit in the spring, freezing weather suddenly turned scorching, causing the trees to drop olives. Summer was hot and humid, leading to all sorts of problems. Then in mid-September, there was a major hail storm, knocking much of the fruit that remained onto the ground.</p> </blockquote> <p>Other major olive oil-producing nations suffered similar calamities; Parsons reports that in Spain and Mediterranean neighbors, production is also "forecast to be far below last year's." And California, that big chunk of Mediterranean-like climate on our west coast, where excellent olive oil is produced? Parsons says the epochal drought is pinching production, and he quotes Muellar to the effect that "frankly, I hear about a lot of games being played there too, with labels and quality alike." Sigh.</p> <p>I find all of this distressing. I came of age as a cook in an era of olive oil hegemony. I treat it like the oil that powers my car, as something to be relied on casually, as if it appeared by magic from nowhere. (Nearly all my Tom's Kitchen columns feature it.)</p> <p>Once a staple of Mediterranean polyculture&mdash;farms and households would feature olive trees in mixed groves along with a multitude of other crops&mdash;olive oil production has long since industrialized. Here is <em><a href="">The Ecologist</a></em> from 2008:</p> <blockquote> <p>Industrial olive farms grow their olive trees, planted at high densities, in massive irrigated orchards on lowland plains. The olives are harvested by machines that clamp around the tree&rsquo;s trunk and shake it until the olives fall to the ground. Oil is then extracted by industrial-scale centrifuge, often at high temperatures. In contrast, small, traditional farms are often ancient, their trees typically planted on upland terraces. The farmers manage their groves with few or no agrochemicals, less water and less machinery. Olives are picked off the ground by hand and the oil extracted by grinding the olives in a millstone and press. Demand for cheap, mass-produced oil is making it a struggle for the smaller, traditional farms to be economically viable, however.</p> <p>&hellip;.</p> <p>Intensive olive farming is a major cause of one of the biggest environmental problems affecting the EU: widespread soil erosion and desertification in Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal. In 2001, the European Commission ordered an independent study into the environmental impact of olive farming across the EU. The report concluded: &lsquo;Soil erosion is probably the most serious environmental problem associated with olive farming.</p> </blockquote> <p>I fear that next year's olive oil crunch is a harbinger of things to come. I am officially in search of alternative cooking fats. One I've come to appreciate: lard from pasture-raised hogs. Lard's rotten nutritional reputation is the result of <a href="">outdated and discredited science</a>. And it makes food taste really good, too.</p></body></html> Tom Philpott Food and Ag Top Stories Wed, 26 Nov 2014 21:02:09 +0000 Tom Philpott 265546 at Thanksgiving Films, Ranked <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Ho ho ho and merry Thanksgiving! Here is a ranking of twenty Thanksgiving films. What is a "Thanksgiving film"? For the purposes of this post it is a film that is both a) on <a href="" target="_blank">Wikipedia's list</a>, and b) one I, Ben Dreyfuss, immediately recall seeing and have an opinion about.</p> <p>1. <em>Hannah and Her Sisters</em></p> <p>2. <em>Rocky</em></p> <p>3. <em>Scent of a Woman</em></p> <p>4. <em>Rocky II</em></p> <p>5. <em>Planes, Trains, and Automobiles</em></p> <p>6. <em>Home for the Holidays</em></p> <p>7. <em>Avalon</em></p> <p>8. <em>The Ice Storm</em></p> <p>9. <em>The Morning After</em></p> <p>10. <em>For Your Consideration </em></p> <p>11. <em>Grumpy Old Men</em></p> <p>12. <em>Addams Family Values</em></p> <p>13. <em>Funny People</em></p> <p>14. <em>Spider-Man</em></p> <p>15. <em>The Object of My affection</em></p> <p>16. <em>The Other Sister</em></p> <p>17. <em>Bean</em></p> <p>18. <em>Son in Law</em></p> <p>18. <em>Tower Heist</em></p> <p>19. <em>Unknown</em></p> <p>20. <em>Jack and Jill</em></p> <p><em>Disclosure: I haven't actually seen </em>Jack and Jill<em> but I'm pretty confident it's the worst. Also, </em>The Last Waltz<em> was not included in this ranking because though it is on the Wikipedia list of Thanksgiving films, it shouldn't be.</em> <em>Still pretty good though!</em></p></body></html> Mixed Media Film and TV Wed, 26 Nov 2014 20:04:21 +0000 Ben Dreyfuss 265541 at We Fact Checked Aaron Sorkin's Climate Science on "The Newsroom" <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="354" src="//" width="630"></iframe></p> <p>I watch too much TV drama, so I can say this with a degree of certainty: It's rare that climate change comes up. (Television news programs also contain "tepid" coverage, in general, <a href="" target="_blank">according to watchdog group Media Matters</a>). That's why it was so weird/exciting for this climate reporter when global warming received its very own subplot on Aaron Sorkin's HBO drama <em>The Newsroom</em> over the last two episodes.</p> <p>First, a little context: Maggie Jordan (Alison Pill) is the show's once daffy news producer whose role this season seems exclusively designed to reverse earlier <a href="" target="_blank">charges of sexism against Sorkin</a>. She's now good at her job! During a convoluted scene on a train from Boston to New York, Maggie overhears and records a top EPA official talking shit on the phone about President Obama to another journalist, off-the-record. Even though that agreement of confidentiality doesn't extend to the other Amtrak passengers, she eventually tells the official she won't use his juicy Obama-dissing quotes. So impressed by her ethics, the official, Richard Westbrook (Paul Lieberstein), rewards her with a scoop: <em>an embargoed EPA report</em>. WHOA! WHAT A SCOOOOOP! (For the uninitiated, while a heads-up about a study is great to get a jump on your competition, reports are circulated and embargoed all the time). Anyway... Maggie also gets an exclusive interview with the official, the deputy assistant administrator of the EPA (WHAT A GET!) and in the most recent episode, she produces a segment for host Will McAvoy (Jeff Daniels) about the report's dire warnings.</p> <p>The scene is odd for a number of reasons.<em> The Newsroom </em>packages its drama based on last year's events, and at that time, the news that the world was approaching 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had been publicly anticipated for weeks. So, not a scoop in any way, or anything that anyone following the science didn't already know.</p> <p>But putting that aside, let's take a look at Sorkin's&nbsp;"facts", as presented in the episode. How do they measure up? Let's go line-by-line through the scene above.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="inline inline-left" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/Newsroom-Fact1-630px.jpg"></div> <p>In the weird parallel universe of <em>The</em> <em>Newsroom</em>, I'm not sure&nbsp;<em>when</em> these "latest measurements" were meant to have been taken. But he's right. <a href="" target="_blank">We covered this at the time</a>: The world passed that 400 ppm threshold&nbsp;for the first meaningful way in May 2013, when the&nbsp;daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide was higher than at any time in human history, according to&nbsp;the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The measurements are indeed taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii; you can follow what's known as the "Keeling Curve"&mdash;a measurement of atmospheric concentration of CO2&mdash;<a href="" target="_blank">on Twitter</a>, naturally, thanks to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="inline inline-left" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/Newsroom-Fact2.jpg"></div> <p>Depends what you're defining as catastrophic failure, I suppose.&nbsp; Say you were born last year, when I assume this episode was meant to be set. If we follow along current emissions trends, the planet will be 3.96&deg;F-8.64&deg;F (2.2&deg;C&ndash;4.8&deg;C) hotter than preindustrial times by your retirement. (You can type your birth year <a href="" target="_blank">into this cool interactive</a>, driven by data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to check how hot it will be when you're old). That's above temperatures recommended to be in the supposedly "safe" zone by the IPCC, and could definitely result in a variety of "catastrophes" and "failures". As deaths increase due to things like extreme weather, droughts and wildfires, this statement seems true enough when applied to individual episodes of calamity, which will surely increase. (The number of annual deaths in the UK due to heat, <a href="" target="_blank">for example</a>, is predicted to rise by 257 per cent by 2050.) The EPA official is right, in one sense. But it's also arguable that deaths are <em>already</em> and <em>will continue</em> to be linked to climate change events. The line in the script infers the failure of the planet as a whole, which I think is artful flourish to illustrate just how glum this fellow is feeling.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="inline inline-left" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/Newsroom-Fact3-630px.jpg"></div> <p>Yup. That's what the science says. The last time the atmosphere clocked 400 ppm it was 3 million years ago&mdash;the "Mid-Pliocene"&mdash;when sea levels were as much as 80 feet higher than today (see this 2007 <a href="" target="_blank">research</a> paper authored by a group led by NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University.) I'd probably add an "around" or "about" before the "80 feet higher" in the above statement; the studies leave a margin of error. But this statement checks out.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="inline inline-left" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/Newsroom-Fact4-630px.jpg"></div> <p>His point is sound, but I'd like to see the writers' sourcing&mdash;these numbers seem to date to <a href="" target="_blank">around the late 1990s</a>. According to a more recent <a href="" target="_blank">2011 NOAA report</a>, 55 percent of the world's population lives within 50 miles of the coast. The UN has a slightly different number: Over 40 percent of the world's population, or 3.1 billion, lives within 60 miles of the "ocean or sea in about 150 coastal and island nations." In the US, 39 percent of the nation's population lived in counties directly on the shoreline <a href="" target="_blank">in 2010</a>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="inline inline-left" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/Newsroom-Fact5-630px.jpg"></div> <p>That seems right.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="inline inline-left" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/Newsroom-Fact6-630px.jpg"></div> <p><a href="" target="_blank">There's consensus amongst 97 percent of climate scientists that global warming is happening and that's it's a manmade disaster</a>. And I've heard climate scientists use this analogy before. (For what it's worth, there are other things that can influence the boiling point of water, including altitude.)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="inline inline-left" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/Newsroom-Fact7-630px.jpg"></div> <p>He's talking about the "carbon budget", and again this is sound, despite Newsman Will's growing anguish at a pretty devastating interview. The 565 gigaton number was popularized by Bill McKibben in a <a href="" target="_blank">2012 <em>Rolling Stone </em>article</a> that <em>Newsroom </em>writers seem to have read. The number is "derived from one of the most sophisticated computer-simulation models that have been built by climate scientists around the world over the past few decades" (done by financial analysis firm Carbon Tracker) and is what we can <em>add</em> into the atmosphere by mid-century and still have a reasonable chance of success of staying below that safe two degrees warming threshold. Our grumpy scientist is so despondent because, yes, 2,795 is the number of gigatons of carbon already contained in the proven coal and oil and gas reserves in the hands of fossil-fuel companies and petrostates. In short, it's the fossil fuel we're currently planning to burn, writes McKibben. Carbon Tracker says <a href="" target="_blank">80 percent of these assets need to remain unburned</a>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="inline inline-left" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/Newsroom-Fact8-630px.jpg"></div> <p>All of these things are predicted by the IPCC&mdash;I mean, not the permanent darkness thing, I don't think that's meant to be scientific. But yes, <a href="" target="_blank">as we reported in May this year</a>, Europe faces freshwater shortages; Asia can expect more severe flooding from extreme storms; North America will see increased heat waves and wildfires, which can cause death and damage to ecosystems and property. Especially in poor countries, diminished crop yields will likely lead to increased malnutrition, which already affects nearly 900 million people worldwide.</p> <p>So, in all, well done <em>Newsroom</em>. Informative, accurate, if a little heavy-handed on the doom and gloom.</p></body></html> Blue Marble Video Climate Change Climate Desk Media Wed, 26 Nov 2014 17:29:36 +0000 James West 265381 at Europe Wants To Make Its Memory Hole Global <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Europe's infamous right to be forgotten is <a href="" target="_blank">on track to become truly Orwellian:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>Europe&rsquo;s privacy regulators want the right to be forgotten to go global. In a new set of guidelines agreed Wednesday in Brussels, the body representing the EU&rsquo;s 28 national privacy regulators said that search engines should <img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_memory_hole.jpg" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 20px 0px 15px 30px;">apply the bloc&rsquo;s new right to be forgotten to all of their websites.</p> <p>....Google may consider a way to apply the ruling on without applying it globally [...] by returning different results depending on whether the person is searching from an Internet Protocol address located within the EU. But it is unclear if such a move would satisfy regulators, as it would only make it harder to sidestep the ruling inside the EU, not globally.</p> <p>&ldquo;These are fundamental rights. My rights don&rsquo;t go away at the border,&rdquo; one data-protection official said of the idea of using IP addresses to apply the rule.</p> </blockquote> <p>I understand that the EU has a more expansive view of personal privacy than the US and other countries. What's more, I'm generally on their side in this battle when it comes to truly personal information. Both corporate and government collection of personal buying habits, internet browsing patterns, and so forth deserve to be reined in.</p> <p>But here we're talking about largely public information. It's bad enough that the EU is insisting that people not only have a right to control genuinely personal data, but also have a right to shape attitudes and perceptions that are based on public record. It's even worse that they're now trying to impose this absurdity on the entire planet. If they insist on having a continent-wide memory hole, I guess that's their business. But they sure don't have the right to foist their insistence on artificially altering reality on the rest of us. Enough's enough.</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Civil Liberties Tech Wed, 26 Nov 2014 16:51:45 +0000 Kevin Drum 265531 at Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg Undergoes Heart Surgery <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is "resting comfortably" after undergoing a coronary catheterization procedure, a <a href="" target="_blank">press release</a> from the nation's highest court announced Wednesday morning.</p> <p>Ginsburg, who at 81 is the Supreme Court's oldest member, is expected to be discharged in the next 48 hours. From the <a href="" target="_blank">release:</a></p> <blockquote> <p class="rteindent1">Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg underwent a coronary catheterization procedure this morning at MedStar Heart &amp; Vascular Institute at MedStar Washington Hospital Center to place a stent in her right coronary artery. The coronary blockage was discovered after Justice Ginsburg experienced discomfort during routine exercise last night and was taken to the hospital. She is resting comfortably and is expected to be discharged in the next 48 hours.</p> </blockquote> <p>Ginsburg has pushed back against suggestions she step down while President Barack Obama is still in office. In an interview with <a href="" target="_blank"><em>Elle</em></a> last September, she defended her resistance to such calls. "Anybody who thinks that if I step down, Obama could appoint someone like me, they&rsquo;re misguided. As long as I can do the job full steam&hellip;. I think I&rsquo;ll recognize when the time comes that I can&rsquo;t any longer. But now I can."</p></body></html> MoJo Supreme Court Top Stories Wed, 26 Nov 2014 16:14:14 +0000 Inae Oh 265526 at Under Pressure From Obama, France Delays Warship Sale to Russia <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>I confess that I'm <a href="" target="_blank">surprised to read this:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>France has put on hold a controversial deal to supply Russia with two high-tech amphibious assault ships following international concern over Moscow's military involvement in Ukraine</p> <p>....After months of wait-and-see messages from the French, Hollande's declaration Tuesday was at least clear: It would not be appropriate to deliver the control-and-command vessels given the current conflict between Moscow-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine, he said.</p> <p>....In June, Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, had insisted that the contract had been signed and sealed and had to be honored. <strong>On Tuesday, following months of pressure from the United States, Fabius appeared to have changed his mind.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Huh. I guess the weakling Obama really is working quietly behind the scenes on stuff like this, and really does still have some clout on the international stage. Who knew?</p></body></html> Kevin Drum International Obama Wed, 26 Nov 2014 15:38:00 +0000 Kevin Drum 265521 at Tom's Kitchen: Gratin of Hearty Greens <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>I'm a greens fanatic: mustards, kale, collards, chard, you name it. I eat them in some form more or less every day, sometimes more than once. At this point, a meal&mdash;even (or especially) something as simple as a fried egg for breakfast&mdash;just seems naked, incomplete, without them. Their ubiquity in my daily life can make them seem unexciting for a special feast like Thanksgiving. Really, <em>again,</em> greens made like I always do them,&nbsp;saut&eacute;ed with onion until tender and then finished with a lashing of vinegar? At the same time, there was no way I could imagine Thanksgiving without leafy greens&mdash;especially since they reach their peak of flavor in the fall.</p> <p>So rather than forsake them or serve them the same old way, I decided to dress them up into something richer and more elegant: a <em>gratin</em>. To get ideas on how to pull it off, I dug into James Peterson's excellent 2002 tome <em>Glorious French Food.</em> Along with recipes for the three classic <em>gratins</em>&mdash;potatoes, leeks, and squash&mdash;it also includes advice on how to improvise one: merely pour cream and cheese over the desired vegetable, and bake in the oven until a "savory crust forms on top." That's when I knew that I not only had a winning side dish for the holiday table, but also something dead simple and yet tasty: perfect fodder for a Tom's Kitchen column.</p> <p>Peterson advises that in most cases, vegetables should be cooked before the baking stage, "so that the moisture they contain is released during the precooking instead of remaining in the gratin, where it would dilute the surrounding sauce." So I started the dish in the same way I usually cook greens&mdash;which gave me the chance to work in onions and garlic&mdash;before finishing in the oven with cream and cheese. The result was magical&mdash;sweet, creamy, tender greens, mashed up with a snap of caramelized cheese. Note: there's also a vegan variation below.</p> <p><strong>Gratin of Hearty Greens</strong></p> <p>Enough extra-virgin olive or butter to generously cover the bottom of a large pan<br> 3 medium onions, halved and sliced thin<br> 3 bunches of hearty greens such as kale or collards (I used two kale, one collards)<br> 4 cloves of garlic, smashed, peeled, and minced<br> Sea salt<br> 1 pint heavy cream<br> 4 ounces grated cheese, such as Parmigiano-Reggiano (which I used) or Gruy&egrave;re<br> Plenty of freshly ground black pepper</p> <p>Place a large heavy-bottom pot over low-medium heat, add the onions, and let them saut&eacute;, stirring occasionally, until they are very soft.</p> <p>Meanwhile, prep the greens. Remove the stems that run down the center by holding the leaf in one left hand and slicing down each side of the stem with a knife. By the time you're done, you'll have two piles: one of stems and one of leaves. I apply a whole-beast ethos to vegetables, and consider greens stems to be highly flavorful. So bunch the stems in a pile and slice them finely, crosswise. Set aside. Now chop the greens and set them aside, too. The point of separating them is to give the stems a head start cooking, as they take a little longer.</p> <p>Preheat the oven to 350 F.</p> <p>Now the onions should be soft. Add the chopped garlic and stir for a minute or so, until it has released its fragrance. Add the chopped stems and a pinch of salt, stir to mix them with the onions and garlic, and cover the pot. Let them cook for about five minutes, stirring occasionally. Now add the greens and another pinch of salt, using tongs to carefully mix in with the saut&eacute;ed veggies in the pan. Add about a half cup of water (or stock) to the pan, and turn heat to high until the water begins to boil. When it does, turn heat down a little bit, and let the greens simmer, covered, stirring occasionally until they're nearly tender but still a little <em>al dente.</em> At that point, remove the lid and let them cook, stirring occasionally, until most of the liquid in the pan has evaporated.</p> <p>Turn off the heat, taste, and add a little salt if necessary. Arrange the cooked greens in a casserole dish large enough to comfortably fit them all. Pour the cream over. Sprinkle the cheese all over the top. Give it a vigorous lashing of black pepper. Bake until the top is well-browned (30-45&nbsp; minutes). Serve hot. This dish can be made a day or two in advance and reheated in a 350 F oven just before serving. Better yet, cook the greens until they're tender and then store them in the fridge until the big day, when you bake them off with cream, cheese, etc.</p> <p><strong>Vegan variation:</strong> Replace the cream with coconut milk and replace the cheese with bread crumbs (or slivered almonds) .</p> <p>&nbsp;</p></body></html> Tom Philpott Food and Ag Wed, 26 Nov 2014 15:22:54 +0000 Tom Philpott 265461 at Obama Has Really Gotten Inside the GOP's Head <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Jeremy Peters writes in the <em>New York Times</em> today that the tea party has morphed from an enraged bunch of economic populists to an enraged bunch of anti-immigration zealots. And by cracky, they want Republicans to crush the tyrant Obama for his immigration insolence, <a href="" target="_blank">and they want it done <em>now</em>:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>Satisfying the conservative base will be difficult. Tea Party activists are not likely to sit patiently while a lawsuit works its way through the courts. And many have already expressed skepticism about the Republican <img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/images/Blog_Party_Cranks.jpg" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 20px 0px 15px 30px;">leadership&rsquo;s willingness to see through a fight over appropriations.</p> <p>....&ldquo;Yes, there&rsquo;s a risk to overreacting, but there&rsquo;s a risk to underreacting as well,&rdquo; said Rich Lowry, the editor of <em>National Review</em>. &ldquo;And I fear that&rsquo;s the way the congressional leadership is leaning.&rdquo; Mr. Lowry suggested one way Congress could react. &ldquo;If I were John Boehner,&rdquo; he said, referring to the House speaker, &ldquo;I&rsquo;d say to the president: &lsquo;Send us your State of the Union in writing. You&rsquo;re not welcome in our chamber.&rsquo; &rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Oh man, I can't tell you how much I wish they'd actually take Lowry up on his suggestion. Can you imagine anything that would strike middle America as pettier and more pointlessly vindictive than this? Anything that would seem feebler and more futile? Anything that could possibly be more evocative of a five-year-old throwing a tantrum?</p> <p>I guess you could if you put your mind to it. But it would be hard. Obama is really inside their heads, isn't he?</p> <p>(<a href="" target="_blank">Via Steve Benen.</a>)</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Congress Immigration The Right Wed, 26 Nov 2014 14:50:18 +0000 Kevin Drum 265511 at GOP Takes Revenge Over Immigration Order in Tax Bill. Obama Tells Them to Pound Sand. <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Danny Vinik describes the tax extender package <a href="" target="_blank">currently wending its way through Congress:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>Imagine somebody asked you to imagine the worst possible deal on taxes. It'd probably have the following qualities:</p> <p>It would be bad for the environment.</p> <p>It would be bad for the deficit.</p> <p>It would give short shrift to the working poor.</p> <p>And it would be a bonanza for corporations.</p> <p>Unfortunately, you don&rsquo;t have to conjure up such a package. Congressional Republicans already have. And for some unfathomable reason, Senate Democrats including Harry Reid seem inclined to go along&mdash;although the White House <img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_pigs_trough.jpg" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 20px 0px 15px 30px;">has vowed to veto such a deal if Congress goes ahead and passes it.</p> </blockquote> <p>Actually, there's nothing all that unfathomable about what's going on. The tax extender bill may be a dog's breakfast of legitimate tax provisions running interference for a long laundry list of indefensible giveaways and corporate welfare, but it's always been supported by both parties and it would have passed long ago if not for an outbreak of routine sniping over amendments and 60-vote thresholds last spring. That aside, the whole thing is a perfect bipartisan lovefest. Republicans and Democrats alike want to make sure that corporations continue to get all their favorite tax breaks.</p> <p>In fact, the only thing that's really new here is the nature of Obama's veto threat. He's made the threat before, but primarily because the extenders weren't being paid for and would add to the deficit. The fact that middle-class tax breaks might not also be extended was sort of an afterthought. Now, however, <a href=";action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=first-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=0" target="_blank">that's front and center:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>The emerging tax legislation would make permanent 10 provisions, including an expanded research and development tax credit....a measure allowing small businesses to deduct virtually any investment; the deduction for state and local sales breaks for car-racing tracks....benefits for racehorse owners.</p> <p>....<strong>Left off were the two tax breaks valued most by liberal Democrats:</strong> a permanently expanded earned-income credit and a child tax credit for the working poor. <strong>Friday night, Republican negotiators announced they would exclude those measures as payback for the president&rsquo;s executive order on immigration,</strong> saying a surge of newly legalized workers would claim the credit, tax aides from both parties said.</p> </blockquote> <p>So there you have it. This bill is the first victim of Republican frothing over Obama's immigration order. As revenge, they left out Democratic tax priorities, and Obama is having none of it.</p> <p>This is all part of the new Obama we've seen since the midterm election, which seems to have had an oddly liberating effect on him. Over the course of just a few weeks he's been throwing sand in Republican faces with gleeful abandon: cutting climate change deals with the Chinese; demanding full net neutrality regulations from the FCC; issuing an executive order on immigration; and now threatening to veto a Republican-crafted bill unless they include expanded EITC and child tax credits. It's as though he's tired of their endless threats to go nuclear over every little thing and just doesn't care anymore. Go ahead, he's telling them. Make my day.</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Congress Corporations Economy Wed, 26 Nov 2014 04:59:51 +0000 Kevin Drum 265506 at A Nuclear Deal With Iran Probably Won't Happen <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Over at <em>Foreign Affairs</em>, Aaron David Miller and Jason Brodsky run through four reasons that we failed to reach a nuclear deal with Iran by this weekend's deadline. <a href="" target="_blank">This is the key one:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>An internal IAEA document that was prepared in 2009 detailed an April 1984 high-level meeting at the presidential palace in Tehran in which Khamenei&nbsp;&mdash; then president of Iran&nbsp;&mdash; championed a decision by then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to launch a nuclear weapons program. According to the account, Khamenei said that "this was the only way to secure the very essence of the Islamic Revolution from the schemes of its enemies, especially the United States and Israel."</p> <p>....The fact is that Iran knows what it wants: to preserve as much of its nuclear weapons capacity as possible and free itself from as much of the sanctions regime as it can. The mullahs see Iran&rsquo;s status as a nuclear weapons state as a hedge against regime change and as consistent with its regional status as a great power. That is what it still wants. And that&rsquo;s why it isn&rsquo;t prepared&nbsp;&mdash; yet&nbsp;&mdash; to settle just for what it needs to do a deal. Ditto for America. And it&rsquo;s hard to believe that another six months is going to somehow fix that problem.</p> </blockquote> <p>This is why I'm skeptical that a deal can be reached. Iran wants to have nuclear weapons capability. The United States wants Iran to verifiably abandon its nuclear ambitions. Everything else is just fluff, and it's hard to see a middle ground here.</p> <p>This doesn't mean an agreement is impossible. Maybe there really is some halfway point that both sides can live with. It sure isn't easy to see it, though. The disagreement here is just too fundamental and too definitive. One side wants to be able to build a bomb, and the other side wants exactly the opposite. How do you split that baby?</p></body></html> Kevin Drum International Tue, 25 Nov 2014 22:56:17 +0000 Kevin Drum 265501 at Watch Killer Mike's Passionate Speech on Michael Brown <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Moments before a scheduled performance in St. Louis Monday night, Killer Mike of the rap duo Run The Jewels delivered an i<a href="" target="_blank">ncredibly forceful speech</a> about the news of a grand jury's decision not to indict Darren Wilson, the Ferguson officer who fatally shot 18-year-old Michael Brown more than three months ago.</p> <p>"Tonight, I got kicked on my ass when I listened to that prosecutor. You motherfuckers got me. I knew it was coming, I knew when Eric Holder decided to resign, I knew it wasn't going to be good."</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="354" src="//" width="630"></iframe></p> <p>"I have a twenty-year-old son and I have a twelve-year-old son and I am so afraid for them," Killer Mike told the crowd, his voice cracked through held-back tears. "When I stood in front of my wife and I hugged her and I cried like a baby, I said 'These motherfuckers got me today.'"</p> <p>The impassioned speech ended with a powerful reference to Martin Luther King Jr. and the civil rights leader's tragic death at the age of 39.</p> <p>"I promise if I die when I walk off this stage tomorrow, I'm going to let you know it's not about race, it's not about class, it's not about color. It is about what they killed him for: It is about poverty, it is about greed, and it is about a war machine. It is us against the motherfucking machine."</p></body></html> Mixed Media Video Music Race and Ethnicity Ferguson Tue, 25 Nov 2014 17:43:09 +0000 Inae Oh 265436 at Is Obama Trolling Republicans Over Immigration? <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Jonah Goldberg is unhappy with President Obama's immigration order, but he's not steaming mad about it. And I think this allows him to see some things <a href="" target="_blank">a little more clearly than his fellow conservatives:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>Maybe President Obama is just trolling?</p> <p>....As Robert Litan of the Brookings Institution notes, Obama "could've done all this quietly, without making any announcement whatsoever." After all, Obama has unilaterally reinterpreted and rewritten the law without nationally televised addresses before. But doing that wouldn't let him pander to Latinos and, more important, that wouldn't achieve his real goal: enraging Republicans.</p> <p>As policy, King Obama's edict is a mess, which may explain why Latinos are underwhelmed by it, according to the polls. But that's not the yardstick Obama cares about most. <strong>The real goal is twofold: Cement Latinos into the Democratic coalition and force Republicans to overreact.</strong> He can't achieve the first if he doesn't succeed with the <img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_immigration_pros_cons.jpg" style="margin: 20px 0px 15px 30px;">second. It remains to be seen if the Republicans will let themselves be trolled into helping him.</p> </blockquote> <p>Don't get me wrong. I'm pretty certain that Obama did what he did because he really believes it's the right thing to do. Goldberg just isn't able to acknowledge that and retain his conservative cred. Still, somewhere in the Oval Office there was someone writing down pros and cons on a napkin, and I'll bet that enraging the GOP caucus and wrecking their legislative agenda made it onto the list of pros. So far, it looks like it's probably working. But if Republicans are smart, they'll figure out some way to follow Goldberg's advice and rein in their worst impulses. If they go nuts, they're just playing into Obama's hands.</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Immigration Tue, 25 Nov 2014 17:07:33 +0000 Kevin Drum 265441 at Map: Here's How #Ferguson Exploded on Twitter Last Night <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>On Monday evening, news of a grand jury's <a href="" target="_blank">decision</a> not to indict Ferguson officer Darren Wilson in the fatal shooting of Michael Brown erupted across social media. The announcement was made shortly after 8:20 PM CT and sparked massive protests around the country. The situation was particularly violent in and around the St. Louis area, with more than 60 people <a href="" target="_blank">arrested</a> overnight.</p> <p>Using the hashtag&nbsp;#Ferguson, Twitter has mapped out how the conversation took place:</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="520" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="100%"></iframe></p> <p>Following the announcement, Wilson's full testimony was released. One of the most controversial remarks included a description of Brown as looking like a "demon."</p> <p><iframe height="354px" src="" width="630px"></iframe></p> <p><strong>More from the chaotic scene:</strong></p> <div class="inline inline-center" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/AP762329691737.jpg" style="height: 354px; width: 630px;"><div class="caption"><strong>Police gather on the street as protesters react after the announcement of the grand jury decision. </strong>Charlie Riedel/AP</div> </div> <div class="inline inline-center" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/AP113152107546.jpg" style="height: 420px; width: 630px;"><div class="caption"><strong>Lesley McSpadden, Michael Brown's mother, is comforted outside the Ferguson police department as St. Louis County Prosecutor Robert McCulloch conveys the grand jury's decision not to indict Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson in the shooting death of her son. </strong>Robert Cohen/AP</div> </div> <div class="inline inline-center" style="display: table; width: 1%"><img alt="" class="image" src="/files/AP766558858094.jpg" style="height: 450px; width: 630px;"><div class="caption"><strong>People watch as stores burn down. </strong>David Goldman/AP</div> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p></body></html> Mixed Media Maps Race and Ethnicity Tue, 25 Nov 2014 16:24:42 +0000 Inae Oh 265426 at Economic Growth Starting to Show Real Signs of Life <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p><a href="" target="_blank">The latest numbers from the Commerce Department</a> show that GDP increased faster than we thought in the third quarter of 2014. Growth clocked in at 3.9 percent, an increase from the original estimate of 3.5 percent. "The economy expanded at its <img align="right" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_gdp_growth_moving_average_2014_q3.jpg" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 20px 0px 15px 30px;">fastest pace in more than a decade," <a href="" target="_blank">says the <em>Wall Street Journal</em>.</a> "The combined growth rate in the second and third quarters was 4.25%, the best six-month reading since 2003."</p> <p>This is true, but a bit misleading since both quarters were making up for a dismal first quarter in which GDP fell by 2.1 percent. Still, even if you look at things in a more defensible way, economic growth is unquestionably picking up. The chart on the right uses a 5-quarter moving average to smooth out individual quarters that might be unusually high or low, and the trajectory of the economy is clearly on the rise. You still can't really say that things are booming, and it continues to be true that the labor market is loose and wages are pretty stagnant. Nonetheless, since 2011 growth has increased from about 1.8 percent annually to about 2.8 percent annually. Things are picking up.</p> <p>If Europe can ever manage to get its act together, we might finally start really digging ourselves out of the Great Recession. I'm not sure I see any signs of that happening soon, though.</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Economy Tue, 25 Nov 2014 15:48:14 +0000 Kevin Drum 265431 at More Patents Does Not Equal More Innovation <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p><a href="" target="_blank">Via James Pethokoukis,</a> here's a chart from a <a href="" target="_blank">new CBO report</a> on federal policies and innovation. Needless to say, you can't read too much into it. It shows the growth since 1963 of total factor productivity (roughly speaking, the share of productivity growth due to technology improvements), and there are lots of possible reasons that TFP hasn't changed much over the past five decades. At a minimum, though, the fact that patent activity has skyrocketed since 1983 with no associated growth in TFP suggests, as the CBO report says dryly, "that the large increase in patenting activity since 1983 may have made little contribution to innovation."</p> <p><img align="middle" alt="" class="image image-_original" src="/files/blog_patents_productivity_0.jpg" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 15px 0px 15px 0px;"></p> <p>The CBO report identifies several possible innovation-killing aspects of the US patent system, among them a "proliferation of low-quality patents"; increased patent litigation; and the growth of patent trolls who impose a substantial burden on startup firms. The report also challenges the value of software patents:</p> <blockquote> <p>The contribution of patents to innovation in software or business methods is often questioned because the costs of developing such new products and processes may be modest. One possible change to patent law that could reduce the cost and frequency of litigation would be to limit patent protections for inventions that were relatively inexpensive to develop. For example, patents on software and business methods could expire sooner than is the case today (which, with renewals, is after 20 years), reducing the incentive to obtain those patents. Another change that could address patent quality, the processing burden on the USPTO, and the cost and frequency of litigation would be to limit the ability to obtain a patent on certain inventions.</p> </blockquote> <p>Personally, I'd be in favor of limiting software and business method patents to a term of zero years. But if that's not feasible, even a reduction to, say, five years or so, would be helpful. In the software industry, that's an eternity.</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Economy Regulatory Affairs Tech Tue, 25 Nov 2014 04:18:40 +0000 Kevin Drum 265416 at Are Term Limits a Good Idea? <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ""> <html><body><p>Jim Newton, a longtime local politics reporter in Los Angeles, wrote his final column for the <em>LA Times</em> today. In it, he offered up "a handful of changes that might make a big difference," and the one that resonates with me is his suggestion that <a href="" target="_blank">both LA and California do away with term limits:</a></p> <blockquote> <p>Elected officials who were popular with their constituents once held their seats for decades, building up experience and knowledge; now, with term limits in place, they're barely seated before they start searching for the next office. That's brought new faces but at great cost. Power has shifted from those we elect to those we don't, to the permanent bureaucracy and to lobbyists. Problems get kicked down the road in favor of attention-grabbing short-term initiatives that may have long-term consequences.</p> <p>Case in point: Why do so many public employees enjoy budget-breaking pensions? Because term-limited officials realize it is easier to promise a future benefit than to give raises now. The reckoning comes later; by then they're gone.</p> <p>Term limits locally were the work of Richard Riordan, who bankrolled the initiative and later became mayor. I asked him recently about them, and he startled me with his response: It was, he said, &ldquo;the worst mistake of my life.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Term limits always sound good. The problem with the idea is that being a council member or a legislator is like any other job: you get better with experience. If your legislature is populated solely by people with, at most, a term or two of experience, it's inevitable that (a) they'll have an almost pathologically short-term focus, and (b) more and more power will flow to lobbyists and bureaucrats who stay around forever and understand the levers of power better.</p> <p>For what it's worth, I'd recommend a middle ground. I understand the problem people have with politicians who win office and essentially occupy sinecures for the rest of their lives. It's often a recipe for becoming insulated and out of touch with the real-world needs of constituents. But short term limits don't solve the problem of unaccountable power, they simply shift the power to other places. The answer, I think, is moderate term limits. Something between, say, ten and twenty years. That's long enough to build up genuine expertise and a genuine power base, while still preventing an office from becoming a lifetime of guaranteed employment.</p></body></html> Kevin Drum Elections Mon, 24 Nov 2014 18:44:59 +0000 Kevin Drum 265351 at