MoJo Blog Posts: Blue marble

Annie Leonard, creator of The Story of Stuff, a popular web video that argues against consumerism, released a new video yesterday on cap and trade. Like her earlier effort, The Story of Cap-and-Trade features engaging narration and cute, easy-to-understand comic sketches to explain an extremely complex issue.

The problem? Leonard vastly oversimplifies cap and trade and its problems. The video blames the current difficulties surrounding cap and trade entirely on the policy itself, not the lawmakers and special interest groups seeking to load the legislation with exceptions and giveaways. The problems she highlights would dog any proposal to address climate change in the US. If Congress suddenly adopted a carbon tax, the coal, oil, and gas lobbies, aided by their favorite senators, would carve out gaping loopholes for their industries. The policy isn't the real villain  here—it's the politics. 

"The next time somebody tells you cap and trade is the best we’re going to get, don’t believe them," Leonard concludes. But what superior proposal has any kind of meaningful political support? Leonard never attempts to explain this. The reality is that ditching cap and trade now would leave us with no politically viable legislative options to combat climate change at all. 

The estimable David Roberts has a thorough take-down of the video at Grist, which I recommend. And here's the video, so you can decide for yourself:

The Story of Cap & Trade from Story of Stuff Project on Vimeo.

In honor of Copenhagen, here's one of the US animals the Endangered Species Coalition has dubbed as most in danger from global warming-related threats. You can read the whole list, which includes lynxes, and salmon, and bears (oh my!) here.

One of the animals on the ESC's list is the dimunitive Kauai Creeper, a 4" tall bird that's languished waiting to be listed under the Endangered Species Act. Found only on the Hawaiian island of Kauai, the creeper (also called the Akikiki) has been on the ESA waitlist since 1994. Now, there's only an estimated 1300 individuals left (down from 7,000 in 1970) most of which live in a 14-square mile patch of swamp.

Sadly, rapid population decline in native birds is not an unfamiliar tale to local biologists. Hawaii is one of the most biodiverse locations in the United States, yet habitat for most animals is restricted due to the island being, well, an island. Not only is land and vegetation limited, invasive species are especially devastating to the small ecosystem. Housecats, for example, prey on adult and juvenile Kauai creepers, feral pigs eat and destroy plants the creepers need for habitat, and mosquitoes carry avian malaria that the birds have no natural defenses against. As global warming ramps up, more and more of Hawaii's forests will become warm enough (55 degrees F or higher) for mosquitoes to thrive and multiply, potentially increasing disease threats to many animals.

Take 100 of the world's leading climate scientists. Have them work 20 state-of-the-art climate models. Include in those models the complex behavior of the Antarctic ozone hole and the most recent data on Antarctic ice loss. What do you get?

A prediction that sea ice around Antarctica could shrink 33 percent by 2100, causing a global sea level rise of 4.6 feet.

That's a loss of one million square miles of ice, nearly equal to the size of India.

The predictions by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research are the first comprehensive review of Antarctic climate change over the long haul known as deep time.

Their analysis reveals that the ozone hole actually cooled Antarctica in the past 30 years by generating extreme winds that allowed sea ice to grow 10 percent.

(Which makes recent good news on the ozone hole recovery a distinctly mixed bag. Floods, or skin cancers/dying phytoplankton? Choose your plague.)

When the ozone hole heals by the end of the century or thereabouts, the authors warn, Antarctica will suffer the full brunt of global warming, with temperatures rising as much as 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

In 2007 the IPCC predicted sea level rise of between 8 and 23 inches by century's end. Two years later, based on what's melting now, predictions once considered too extreme to be realistic are now looking likely. 

(How much worse will things look two years from now?)

It's interesting that this story has been all over the front pages of British newspaper websites and nowhere to be found on American. Instead, US news outlets are choosing to report as their big science story of the day a dubious study on the supposed contagiousness of loneliness. (New Scientist reminds us of a few other things supposedly contagious through social networks: acne, headaches, your height.)

If you're wondering what a 4.6-foot sea level rise looks like, try this interactive Google flood map.
 

Mean Geeks: Just because scientists gossip doesn't mean their climate research isn't sound.

Solar Flares: California homeowners fight to install solar, one panel at a time. [Los Angeles Times]

Healthy Sales: Wal-Mart changed Black Friday sales to ensure fewer crowd-related deaths.

Hopenhagen: Copenhagen may be better than expected, thanks to US and China promises.

Green Tide: In Japan, green items are hot buys for the holiday season. [Planet Ark]

Temptation: Christians tout the "side hug" as an alternative to the sinful, frontal version.

Americans, obviously, are eating more than ever before. A new study suggests we're also throwing away more than ever before. About 50 percent more per person since 1974.

According to the new calculations, food waste contributes to greenhouse gas emissions in the form of methane and CO2 from decomposing food. In the US, it also accounts for:

• More than one-quarter of total freshwater use
• Some 300 million barrels of oil a year (~4 percent of total American oil consumption)

Until now, studies of food waste have depended on interviews with consumers and inspections of garbage. Neither is particularly accurate.

In this study, researchers analyzed the amount of food consumed by tracking average body weight in the US from 1974 to 2003. They assumed that exercise levels hadn't changed in that period (an admittedly conservative approach). They compared these data with estimates of the total food available in the US as reported by the USDA to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN.

The difference between calories available and calories consumed (what the researchers call the missing mass of American food) equals food wasted. Here's how it breaks down per person per day in 2003:

• 3750 calories available
• 2300 consumed
• 1450 wasted

That's 39 percent of the American food supply that is never consumed by human beings. Multiply the individual waste by 300 million Americans and you get enough to feed the people of the Philippines.

The 39-percent estimate significantly exceeds the 27-percent estimate of the USDA, based on consumer and producer interviews.

The new study is out of the Laboratory of Biological Modeling, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, in Maryland. The paper is open access at PLoS ONE.

A little something to chew on as we head to Copenhagen.
 

Less than a week before the Copenhagen climate conference begins, confidential documents reveal that the EU is pushing to use existing aid money, not new funds, to help poorer nations reduce emissions and adapt to climate change—a stance that NGOs say could derail the entire summit.

According to documents obtained by The Guardian, EU negotiators have removed lines from a proposed draft agreement that call for a new climate fund for poor countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The text says the EU "cannot accept" proposed language that would call for climate aid to be "additional to" and "separate from" other development assistance funds.

If climate funds were to come entirely from existing pools of money, that would pose a huge problem for international negotiations. The United Nations has estimated that poor countries need as much as $170 billion per year to adapt to climate change. That's $50 billion more than developed countries spent on aid last year.

This year's Miss South Pacific pageant isn't just about swim suits—it's taking on climate change. The slogan is "preserving our environment the Pacific way," and several contestants have spoken about the issue. Last Wednesday was  Polynesian Nite for the week-long competition, which means Polynesian nations, including, Tuvalu will be honored. Miss Tuvalu, Akelita Marisa, has been vocal about the threats that climate change poses to her home country—sea level rises, king tides, extreme weather, and erosion. The final crowning of Miss South Pacific happened last weekend, less than two weeks before the international climate talks in Copenhagen kick off.

In the current issue of Mother Jones, Rachel Morris has taken an in-depth look at how Tuvaluans are dealing with the impending threats of climate change. Morris traveled to New Zealand to speak with Tuvaluan immigrants and atoll island experts about how soon Tuvalu could be under water. Check it out here.

Guess what happens as climate warms in Africa? You get more war. About a 50 percent higher chance of war in unusually warm years.

Prior research has shown links between drought and conflict. But this is the first comprehensive study to finds strong links between civil war and temperature in Africa.

The reason seems to be mostly about food. African crop yields are extremely sensitive to even the smallest shifts in temperature—only 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9 degrees F) is enough to drive crop failures and that drives people to start killing each other.

(You think the same thing couldn't happen here?)

So where's Africa headed? Combining historical temperature trends with climate forecasts, the researchers predict a 54 percent increase in armed conflicts by 2030. That's an additional 393,000 war deaths if future conflicts are as deadly as current conflicts.

The paper is important enough that it's been made open access on PNAS.

The researchers' conclusions? On the eve of Copenhagen, lead author Marshall Burke of UC Berkeley told the BBC:

"Our findings provide strong impetus to ramp up investments in African adaptation to climate change by such steps as developing crop varieties less sensitive to extreme heat and promoting insurance plans to help protect farmers from adverse effects of the hotter climate."

Want to calculate how much your Thanksgiving turkey is contributing to civil war dead in Africa? A recent study estimated Britains' annual turkey dinners add 51,000 tons of C02 to the atmosphere each Christmas. That's the equivalent of 6,000 car journeys around the world. Or some unknown number of war dead.

Seitan turkey, anyone?
 

These little "darlings" (as Stephen Fry has called them) are tiny and cute enough that even their big-screen versions, like Mort in Madagascar, aren't quite as endearing as the real thing. Predictably, mouse lemurs were bred on the highly biodiverse island of Madagascar, home to some of the world's weirdest, coolest, adorable-ist, and endangered-ist animals. Seventy percent of the animals on Madagascar are found no where else on Earth. The country has dozens of species of lemurs, many of which are endangered due to specialized or restricted habitat on the Texas-sized island of Madagasacar, and the ususal factors: poaching, export as exotic pets, and habitat destruction by logging, agriculture expansion, or human developments. For the mouse lemur specifically, the biggest threats are slash-and-burn agriculture, and predation by carnivores (native and invasive).

The golden-brown mouse lemur, pictured above, is about 10" long (including tail) and weighs about 1.5 oz. The golden-brown lives only in a nature preserve in northwestern Madagascar and unlike other lemurs, it prefers leaping rather than walking to get around tree canopy. Golden-browns live in groups, though there is no alpha and females are not arranged in the harem system like some primates. Instead, scientists say, these tiny primates prefer a "multifemale" arrangement that results in a "promiscuous mating pattern." Meaning, these lemurs mate with whomever, and whenever, they feel like it. Group members communicate with one another through olfactory signals, as well as high-pitched vocalizations called "trills" or "chirps."

New Rules: The debate on new mammogram guidelines is driven by a vocal minority.

Heart Matters: An Indian surgeon's cheap, well-done open-heart surgeries is making waves.

Congress Cares: Healthcare bill requires reps to use new federal health exchanges.

Fish Story: Frozen salmon is better for the environment than fresh. [The Oregonian]

Nice Try: West Virginia commerce body doesn't want healthcare unless it can have coal too.

Money Talks: Clean coal group only spends $.02 on R&D for every dollar of profit.

Paying Pharma: Malpractice settlements have made Big Pharma even less reform-friendly.

Nonsense Labels: This "Ecosense" insecticide is greenwashing at its weirdest. [Consumerist]

WWHRD?: Democrats and others are wondering what Harry Reid will do to the bill.

Cost of Care: The Senate's healthcare bill isn't perfect, but it's not breaking the bank either.

Obama's Carbon Goal: White House to release carbon reduction goal, pre-Copenhagen.

Hot in Here: New study shows global temps could rise even higher than expected. [Al Jazeera]

Counting Carbons: Investors want companies to estimate cost of climate change.

Inertia is Powerful: Weatherizing a home reduces carbon, but people are too lazy to do it.