Fred Thompson Pitches Credibility, But Iowa Voters Prefer Red Meat
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Exhibit C in Thompson's case for credibility is honesty. "Does a man mean what he says?" said Thompson in Burlington. "Does where he stands depend on where he's standing, or what office he's gunning for? Or is he for real?" True, Thompson doesn't have a reputation as a flip-flopper. But this pitch of honesty is based not on what he has done, but on what he sounds like and appears like. His speeches are filled with folksy sayings and good-natured jokes, and his dominant mode is aw-shucks Southern charm.
Honesty is where Thompson convinces the most attendees. After recent campaign events in eastern Iowa, Iowans didn't say anything about Thompson's appeal to independents, his Social Security plan, or his 99-to-1 votes. They did mention his honesty, however. And, though Thompson himself doesn't emphasize this on the stump, they repeatedly referred to his positions on gay marriage and abortion. Despite his past work for an abortion-rights group, Thompson recently won the endorsement of National Right to Life.
A supporter named Lori Wheatly said that what appeals to her about Thompson is "his hometown values." She couldn't get behind the front-runners, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, because "As far as abortion, [Giuliani] believes it's a woman's right. Also, gay marriages, that he wants to put into practice." For the record, Giuliani once supported civil unions but has seen an election season conversion on the issue. He never favored gay marriage, but he did embrace the gay community while mayor of New York and briefly lived with two gay roommates when going through a very public divorce with his wife. Wheatly added that Romney's religion concerned her.
William Hedgepeth stood outside the Thompson event at Big Muddy's wearing a USA baseball cap with Thompson stickers stuck on the side. When I asked Hedgepth why he supported Thompson, he claimed he had graduated from the same high school as the presidential candidate. "He's honest in what he says. He just stands up to whatever it is. You may not agree, but he tells you what he thinks."
The Big Muddy's event was followed by an event in Moose Lodge 1003 in Mount Pleasant, Iowa. This time, Thompson spoke in front of 39 campaign signs, all bearing his slogan of "Security, Unity, Prosperity." Afterwards, a supporter named Ben Moore said what was appealing about Thompson was "basic, core values. God, family, in that order." Moore said Thompson was "head and shoulders above" Giuliani and Romney when it came to being pro-life and pro-family.
An attendee who was seeking to learn more about Thompson, Carol Messer, had a unique combination of priorities: "I think some of our family values are getting run into the ground. More family and less government!" She was considering Thompson, Giuliani, and, like many at Thompson's events, Huckabee.
Electability and Thompson's ability to appeal to independents were not on the attendees' radars.
Currently, it doesn't seem to matter what exhibits Thompson is offering. In national polling, according to Pollster.com, Giuliani leads the race with 31 percent support. Thompson used to be in second place with roughly 20 percent, but now has dropped into a tie with McCain at 15 percent.
The numbers are more damning in early state polling, where voters actually get to see Thompson and his competition. Last month, a Rasmussen poll put Thompson's support in Iowa at 19 percent. His support has since been cut in half. According to Pollster.com, which aggregates polls, Thompson is currently running fourth in Iowa, behind Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani. The numbers are even worse in New Hampshire, where Thompson places a stunning sixth, behind even libertarian Ron Paul.
His drop in the polls may be occurring as socially conservative voters become more aware of Thompson's positions on social issues. He does not support a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, nor he does not support a constitutional amendment to ban abortions (though such an amendment has been a part of the Republican Party platform since 1980). He opposed congressional intervention in the Terri Schiavo case.
Perhaps the National Right to Life endorsement will re-endear him to the base. He better hope so. His argument for credibility isn't going over well with the jury.
Jonathan Stein is a reporter in the Mother Jones Washington D.C. bureau.
