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Are Democrats going to lose the House in 2010?  Just to make things clear up front, I think it’s dumb to even be asking this question so early in the election cycle.  The answer depends on healthcare, it depends on the economy, it depends on Afghanistan and Iraq.  Come back in April, when we have a better read on those things, and we can talk.

But Charlie Cook is talking now, and he thinks Democrats are in big trouble.  Brendan Nyhan, hauling out some fancy poli sci analysis, isn’t so sure Cook is right, and Cook responds:

Have you been in the South lately? The level of anti-Obama, anti-Democratic and anti-Congress venom is extraordinary, and with 59 Democrat-held seats in the region, 22 in or potentially in competitive districts, this is a very serious situation for Democrats. I have had several Democratic members from the region say the atmosphere is as bad or worse than it was in 1994.

This is no surprise.  For the last forty years the South has been represented in the Oval Office one way or another.  They’ve been represented when a Republican was president, because Republicans represent their values.  (Or, at the very least, they talk a good game.)  And they’ve been represented when a Democrat was in office, because the last three Democratic presidents have all been Southerners.

But Barack Obama?  He’s a northern Democrat.  What’s worse, he’s not from Hope or Plains or Johnson City and he doesn’t pretend to be.  He’s a biracial, urban, Harvard-educated northern Democrat.  If there’s anyone in the world more likely to scare the hell out of traditionally-minded Southerners, I’m not sure who it is.  For the first time in decades, the South is completely out in the cold.  Completely powerless.

So their conspiracy-laden backlash against Obama is no surprise, and it might well lead to a further loss of seats for Dems in the South.  But will they lose all 22 of the competitive districts?  I doubt it.  And will they lose another 20-30 more outside the South?  I doubt that too.  If you live in Washington it’s all too easy to get caught up in whatever whirlwind happens to be whirling at the moment, but this one won’t last forever.  If Democrats manage to avoid terminal stupidity over the next few months1, they’ll take some hits in the midterms but come out still retaining a sizable majority.  If Charlie or anyone else has some money they want put down on this, just let me know.

1Yes, yes, I know.

WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

payment methods

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