Facts matter: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter. Support our nonprofit reporting. Subscribe to our print magazine.


Jon Chait, after judiciously conceding that it’s possible that “Rasmussen is right and everybody else is wrong,” basically makes the case that Rasmussen’s polls are, in fact, just right-wing hackery. Their questions are often loaded, they pick odd topics, and even when they poll on ordinary subjects they produce results that are wild outliers compared to everyone else:

Rasmussen polling occupies an odd place in the political culture. In the conservative world, it is the gold standard. If you go to a conservative [site] on basically any random day, you’ll see somebody touting a Rasmussen poll.

….The habitual practice by conservative pundits of quoting only Rasmussen polling reinforces conservatives’ overweening certainty that they embody public opinion. It’s an important component of right-wing epistemic closure, the Republican base having its own pollster who always tells them what they want to hear. In theory, there ought to be a corrective dynamic. If Rasmussen is wrong about the 2010 elections — and, again, you can’t be certain he will be — in theory, this would cause Republicans to question their reliance upon his unusual findings. But it’s entirely possible that Republicans would simply question the validity of the results themselves. It’s massive voter fraud! Obama dirty tricks!

Some time ago I decided to ignore all Zogby polls for everything other than plain-Jane election projections, and over the past year or so I’ve added Rasmussen to that list. I don’t write about them to debunk them, I don’t write about them when they happen to produce a result I like, I just treat them as null data. Now, I might be wrong about this. On Zogby in particular, I don’t even quite remember what it was that prompted me to put him on my permanent shitlist. But that’s where things stand: with the exception of campaign polling, where the questions are straightforward and house effects are generally modest (though rising in Rasmussen’s case), I just don’t trust either of these outfits.

That said, I think Rasmussen does provide a public service: it gives us some idea of where public opinion will be once Republican talking points enter the civic consciousness. Ask people what they think about financial reform and they’ll tell you X. Ask them what they think about, say, financial reform that includes a fund to bail out banks, and they’ll say something else. Is that a loaded question? Sure, but that’s how Republicans are going to attack it, so it’s useful to know what public opinion might be once they start repeating that talking points a few dozen times a day. It’s not exactly an accurate reflection of the public mood, but it can still be useful information.

THE END...

of our fiscal year is Thursday, June 30, and we have a much larger fundraising gap than we can easily manage with only days left to go.

Right now is no time to come up short: If you value the hard-hitting, democracy-protecting, justice-advancing journalism you get from Mother Jones, please help us keep charging as hard as we possibly can with a much-needed and much-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

THE END...

of our fiscal year is Thursday, June 30, and we have a much larger fundraising gap than we can easily manage with only days left to go.

Right now is no time to come up short: If you value the hard-hitting, democracy-protecting, justice-advancing journalism you get from Mother Jones, please help us keep charging as hard as we possibly can with a much-needed and much-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate