Why Did North Korea Do It?

BBCworldservice / <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/bbcworldservice/2701057194/in/set-72157606363380349/">Flickr</a>

For indispensable reporting on the coronavirus crisis and more, subscribe to Mother Jones' newsletters.


I haven’t been posting about the North Korean situation, but I’ve been following it with considerable interest ever since the start. And the biggest question all along has been: Why? Even by North Korean standards, torpedoing a South Korean ship is nuts. What on earth were they thinking? In the Financial Times today, Christian Oliver runs down the theories:

  1. Revenge
  2. To smooth the succession
  3. An internal power struggle
  4. A reversion to hardline ideology
  5. Breakdown of command in North Korea
  6. To distract from economic woes at home
  7. Bitterness about G20 meeting in Seoul

I have to say that I find all of these unsatisfactory, and I haven’t read anything better anywhere else. It’s just weird as hell. Even granted that North Korea acts like a mental case much of the time, this doesn’t make sense. There’s simply nothing good that can conceivably come out of this incident from their point of view.

So: my guess is that it was an accident. Or perhaps some combination of #3 and #5, a rogue commander who fired the shot because of some kind of chaos in the chain of command. Then, once the deed was done, we got all the usual North Korean bluster and delusion that we’ve come to know and loathe over the past few decades.

And then there’s another obvious question: just how long is China willing to put up with all this? Sharon LaFraniere had a pretty good rundown of the Chinese dilemma a few days ago in the New York Times, and their unwillingness to put serious pressure on North Korea mostly seems to come down to a combination of inertia and a fear of massive refugee flows across the border if North Korea collapses. This, again, is something I’ve never quite bought: refugee flows can be managed with international help, and in any case they wouldn’t be any kind of existential threat to China. Propping up North Korea hardly seems to be in China’s self-interest any longer, and if that’s the case I’ll bet they eventually overcome their inertia and decide that the refugee problem can be managed after all. The only question is just how long “eventually” is.

Thank you!

We didn't know what to expect when we told you we needed to raise $400,000 before our fiscal year closed on June 30, and we're thrilled to report that our incredible community of readers contributed some $415,000 to help us keep charging as hard as we can during this crazy year.

You just sent an incredible message: that quality journalism doesn't have to answer to advertisers, billionaires, or hedge funds; that newsrooms can eke out an existence thanks primarily to the generosity of its readers. That's so powerful. Especially during what's been called a "media extinction event" when those looking to make a profit from the news pull back, the Mother Jones community steps in.

The months and years ahead won't be easy. Far from it. But there's no one we'd rather face the big challenges with than you, our committed and passionate readers, and our team of fearless reporters who show up every day.

Thank you!

We didn't know what to expect when we told you we needed to raise $400,000 before our fiscal year closed on June 30, and we're thrilled to report that our incredible community of readers contributed some $415,000 to help us keep charging as hard as we can during this crazy year.

You just sent an incredible message: that quality journalism doesn't have to answer to advertisers, billionaires, or hedge funds; that newsrooms can eke out an existence thanks primarily to the generosity of its readers. That's so powerful. Especially during what's been called a "media extinction event" when those looking to make a profit from the news pull back, the Mother Jones community steps in.

The months and years ahead won't be easy. Far from it. But there's no one we'd rather face the big challenges with than you, our committed and passionate readers, and our team of fearless reporters who show up every day.

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our newsletters

Subscribe and we'll send Mother Jones straight to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate

We have a new comment system! We are now using Coral, from Vox Media, for comments on all new articles. We'd love your feedback.