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Jonathan Bernstein has a question for us left-leaning types:

Think back to what you were thinking in November 2008, and in January 2009. As the 111th Congress winds down, what’s your biggest disappointment of the things you expected to happen? Not your wish list, but the things you really expected to happen. What’s your biggest happy surprise?

This is fairly easy for me, since I wrote a blog post on November 3, 2008, saying that I’d consider Obama’s first term a success if he got three things done: (1) withdrawal from Iraq, (2) real healthcare reform, and (3) carbon pricing. “Get something serious done on those issues, and Obama’s administration will be a big success. Fail on them, and it’s not clear to me that any combination of other new programs will be enough to salvage it.”

This leaves me in a pickle. Withdrawal from Iraq appears to be proceeding apace, and healthcare reform did indeed get passed. Carbon pricing, obviously, didn’t. On the other hand, we can add a modest stimulus bill, a modest financial reform bill, and repeal of DADT to Obama’s list of accomplishments. Does that make up for the failure of the carbon bill? Two years ago I said I didn’t think any combination of other new programs would be enough to make up for failure on one of the big three, and that’s a tough statement to walk back. So I guess I’d say I consider Obama’s first term a success, but not a big success. How’s that for weaseling?

As for happy surprises, I’m not sure I have any. I didn’t expect miracles, but I did expect more from Obama, and I can’t think of anything significant he passed that I wasn’t expecting. Partly this was due to epic levels of Republican obstructionism, and partly it was due to Obama’s native economic conservatism. On the other hand, I can think of two big disappointments that I didn’t fully expect: the size of the buildup in Afghanistan and Obama’s failure to rein in some of the civil liberties excesses of the Bush era. Again, I didn’t expect miracles, but neither was I expecting 140,000 troops in Afghanistan or almost complete acquiescence to the national security posture of the Bush/Cheney administration.

So there you have it: on net, I’d call Obama a successful president, but not a hugely successful president. But he’s still got six years left. There’s still time to surprise us.

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THE TRUTH...

is the first thing despots go after. An unwavering commitment to it is probably what draws you to Mother Jones' journalism. And as we're seeing in the US and the world around, authoritarians seek to poison the discourse and the way we relate to each other because they can't stand people coming together around a shared sense of the truth—it's a huge threat to them.

Which is also a pretty great way to describe Mother Jones' mission: People coming together around the truth to hold power accountable.

And right now, we need to raise about $400,000 from our online readers over the next two months to hit our annual goal and make good on that mission. Read more about the information war we find ourselves in and how people-powered, independent reporting can and must rise to the challenge—and please support our team's truth-telling journalism with a donation if you can right now.

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