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Gordon Adams says that rumors that a budget deal will include $1 trillion in defense cuts is just smoke and mirrors:

Right now, the adminstration’s budgets assume that war costs will be $50 billion a year over the next ten years. That is not a real number; it is what budget folks (like me) call a “plug” — we know something will go there, but we don’t know what it is.

By contrast, the Congressional Budget Office uses its own “plug” in forecasting future war costs. Theirs is based on what was the last appropriation for the war, or $159 billion in fiscal year 2011. Then CBO just mechanically projects that number out over ten years, regardless of what policy might be.

So if the deal assumes that by, say, 2014 our wars all wind down to a mere $50 billion per year, that’s a savings of $109 billion for eight of the next ten years compared to the CBO estimate. That comes to $872 billion over ten years, or, roughly speaking, $1 trillion.

And you never know: maybe this will actually happen. But simply saying so doesn’t make it any more likely, nor does it make it any more likely that we’ll avoid future wars. And it certainly doesn’t force any serious cuts in the Pentagon’s operating budget.

If it ends up making a budget deal more likely to pass the House, I guess I’m OK with it. But no one should mistake this for any kind of serious spending cuts. Those, apparently, are being saved for the poor and the elderly.

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is the first thing despots go after. An unwavering commitment to it is probably what draws you to Mother Jones' journalism. And as we're seeing in the US and the world around, authoritarians seek to poison the discourse and the way we relate to each other because they can't stand people coming together around a shared sense of the truth—it's a huge threat to them.

Which is also a pretty great way to describe Mother Jones' mission: People coming together around the truth to hold power accountable.

And right now, we need to raise about $400,000 from our online readers over the next two months to hit our annual goal and make good on that mission. Read more about the information war we find ourselves in and how people-powered, independent reporting can and must rise to the challenge—and please support our team's truth-telling journalism with a donation if you can right now.

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