Gambling On Armageddon (No, Seriously)

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The debt ceiling fight is sucking up all the wonk blogging oxygen these days, but I’m struggling to think of anything new to say about it. Republicans are great negotiators, Obama left himself wide open to lose this battle, Republicans are crazy, Democrats have no consistent position on offer, Republicans may benefit if the economy tanks, Democrats may benefit if independents conclude that Republicans are reckless and crazy, etc. etc. I guess it’s worth repeating this stuff to make sure the point gets across, but there are only so many synonyms for “insane.”

So instead, let’s have a pool. Answer the following three questions:

  1. When will we finally reach a debt ceiling agreement? (The drop-dead date is supposedly July 22, with a second really-for-sure drop-dead date of August 2.)
  2. How much will the debt ceiling be increased? A lot (the full $2 trillion or so) or will it just be a stopgap ($400 billion or so)?
  3. Will it include any net revenue increases? How much?

I know, I know, I’m asking you to bet on the end of the world. And I’m not even offering any prizes. But the winner gains much commenting-fu in the coming year. Here’s my entry: (1) August 7, (2) $1.7 trillion, (3) Yes, $200 billion.

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FACT:

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Today, reader support makes up about two-thirds of our budget, allows us to dig deep on stories that matter, and lets us keep our reporting free for everyone. If you value what you get from Mother Jones, please join us with a tax-deductible donation today so we can keep on doing the type of journalism 2020 demands.

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