After Four Months of Excitement, the Presidential Race is Back to Where It Was In May

Here’s the latest version of Sam Wang’s meta-analysis of how the presidential campaign is going. I’m putting it up for one reason: to show just how little outside events seem to matter. After a couple of months that featured a series of gaffes that hurt Romney, a VP choice that seemed to help him, the Todd Akin affair, a poorly-received GOP convention, and a well-received Democratic convention — after all that, Sam’s estimate right now is that Obama will receive 319 electoral votes to Romney’s 219. This is virtually the same as it was in May and June. The needle has barely moved at all.


Mother Jones was founded as a nonprofit in 1976 because we knew corporations and the wealthy wouldn't fund the type of hard-hitting journalism we set out to do.

Today, reader support makes up about two-thirds of our budget, allows us to dig deep on stories that matter, and lets us keep our reporting free for everyone. If you value what you get from Mother Jones, please join us with a tax-deductible donation today so we can keep on doing the type of journalism 2019 demands.

We Recommend


Sign up for our newsletters

Subscribe and we'll send Mother Jones straight to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.


Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.


We have a new comment system! We are now using Coral, from Vox Media, for comments on all new articles. We'd love your feedback.