Polling guru Nate Silver tweets me a series of early birthday presents:
Obama had a strong day of polls in swing states today. He’s up a fair bit in our forecast, to 70.4% from 65.7%.
Also, the polls with the most recent field dates generally suggest more strength for Obama than those from earlier in the week.
National polls published in past 24 hours: Obama +3.2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +1, Obama +0.6, Obama +0.5, TIE, Romney +7.
I don’t think there’s much question that Obama has started bouncing back from the slide that started in late September. The weird Gallup tracking poll is the only one that still has Romney ahead, but the bulk of the polls show Obama now leading both nationally and in the key swing states. For what it’s worth, my rough take has always been that Obama has about a two-thirds chance of winning, and I still think that. Nothing so far has really changed my mind.
In other news, Todd Akin continues to suck wind in Missouri. This is bad for my forecasting batting average, but I find that I can bear up surprisingly well under the strain.