Obamacare Signups From the Uninsured Appear to Be Surging

membership ticker

Autocratic forces are ascendant.

Truth-telling independent media is one remaining bulwark against an autocrat’s unrestrained exercise of power. At a time when billionaire owners of corporate media are making accommodations to political leaders, our nonprofit newsroom cannot be bought, bent, or broken. Depend on it, and please stand with us.

Autocratic forces are ascendant in America. But truth-telling independent media is one remaining bulwark against the unrestrained exercise of power. At a time when billionaire owners of corporate media are making accommodations to political leaders, our nonprofit newsroom cannot be bought or broken. Please stand with us.

Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.

Out of all the Obamacare signups to date, how many are from people who were previously uninsured? Extrapolating from signups in New York, Charles Gaba provides the following estimates:

October, November, December — perhaps 50% of 2.15 million = 1.075 million previously uninsured
January — perhaps 75% of 1.15 million = 863,000 previously uninsured
February — probably 90% out of, say, 700,000 = 630,000 previously uninsured
March — probably at least 95% out of (unknown number, depends on strength of the expected “March surge”…assume 1.0 – 1.5 million?) = perhaps 0.9 – 1.4 million previously uninsured

Unsurprisingly, people who were already insured dominated the early signups. Since the beginning of 2013, however, it’s mostly been people who are getting insurance for the first time. If Gaba is right, by March we’ll have about 4 million workers who are newly insured via private plans, plus several more millions who have newly qualified for Medicaid. It’s a start.