Medicare Actuaries Are Big Fans of Obamacare’s Cost Reduction Programs


As long as we’re perusing the 2014 Medicare Trustees Report, here’s another interesting chart. It shows just how much the Medicare actuaries expect to save thanks to all the cost-reduction measures included in Obamacare. It’s a pretty speculative forecast, of course, but their estimate is that Obamacare will reduce federal spending a lot. By 2080, the savings add up to about 1.5 percent of GDP, which in today’s dollars amounts to $250 billion per year.

Now, don’t take this too seriously on a pure policy basis. Projections that are extended 70 years out are pretty worthless. Trend lines don’t stay the same that long, and government policies change every decade anyway. Nor does this mean that Obamacare is a free lunch. It still has a high net cost since it’s insuring a whole lot of people who never had insurance before.

Still, this shows that the Medicare actuaries take the efficiency measures in Obamacare pretty seriously. If we stick to them, they really are likely to cut the growth rate of Medicare spending. And remember: Medicare costs get reflected in overall health care costs too. If Republicans ever win their jihad against Obamacare, we lose not just the Medicare savings, but a lot of savings in private health care too. That’s a lot to give up.

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