Neil Irwin says the American economy is now firing on all cylinders:
Total retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November, as holiday shopping began, and that came despite a sharp tumble in gasoline prices that reduced the dollar value of sales at gas stations by 0.8 percent. Analysts had expected a rise of only 0.4 percent.
….The November retail sales number could well be a fluke. But only 11 days into December, here is a partial list of readings on the economy that have handily beat already-strong analyst forecasts: Institute for Supply Management’s survey of manufacturing firms; its survey of nonmanufacturing firms; motor vehicle sales; construction spending; job growth; wage growth; and now retail sales. The only major piece of data that has been disappointing was a negative report this week on factory orders, a volatile series of data.
I’m not quite as excited by the wage growth number as Irwin, but it’s true that recent economic news has been distinctively more positive than in the past. As usual, my biggest worry is whether weakness in Europe and China is going to derail things, and it’s too early to tell just how serious a concern that is. For now, though, things are finally looking up. Huzzah.
