Charts of the Day: Is Ted Cruz in 1st or 4th Place in Iowa?

Here is a test for you. Which of these polls of the Iowa caucuses do you believe?

The Pollster average of recent polls still shows Trump with a big lead over Cruz in Iowa. The latest Monmouth poll shows Cruz with a big lead. Is Monmouth an outlier? Or an indication of a recent big surge by Cruz that hasn’t shown up in the averages yet? Place your bets.