Was Trade the Secret Sauce in Bernie Sanders’ Michigan Win?

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From the Washington Post on Bernie Sanders’ win in Michigan last night:

Senator’s win fueled by his opposition to ‘disastrous’ trade deals

Sanders’s come-from-behind victory was fueled by a relentless focus on his opposition to “disastrous” trade deals that have battered the manufacturing sector in Michigan. He will carry the same message to Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois and Missouri next week.

….Sanders campaigned hard in Michigan, holding large rallies across the state over the past week and hammering Clinton for what he called her record of failure on trade and job protection — an appealing message in a state that has lost manufacturing jobs. “While others waffle, Bernie is fighting hundreds of thousands in new job losses,” said the narrator of a Sanders television ad in heavy rotation in the state.

Maybe. But here are a few exit poll results from Michigan:

  • Sanders won union households 49-47 percent.
  • Clinton won voters who think the economy is the most important issue by 51-48 percent.
  • Among voters who think trade with other countries takes away US jobs, Sanders won 58-41 percent.
  • Among voters worried about the economy, Clinton won 50-48 percent.

There’s clearly some evidence for the trade theory, since Sanders won a convincing victory among voters who think trade takes away US jobs. But more generally, voters concerned about the economy broke pretty evenly.

The bigger story, perhaps, is that Sanders won a whopping 83 percent of voters under 30. That’s a fifth of the electorate. He also won a respectable 31 percent of the black vote. In both cases, this is better than he usually does.

Maybe trade really was the key margin of victory for Sanders in Michigan. But the evidence is a little thin, and it seems as though age and race breakdowns can explain things pretty well too. I’d be careful about drawing too firm a conclusion from Michigan about trade being an especially potent issue.

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

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