As Always, Take Obamacare Premium Hike Stories With a Big Grain of Salt

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The Kaiser Family Foundation has a new report out suggesting that Obamacare premiums are going to skyrocket next year. Maybe so. But before everyone gets into another Trump-inspired tizzy about this, please note the highlighted section of the Kaiser table below:

Insurers always ask for more than they get. In the 13 states that Kaiser examines, insurers have asked for rate increases averaging 11 percent. And who knows? Maybe they’ll get it. More than likely, though, they won’t. This is an opening bid, and the final contract won’t be set for several more months.

So, as usual, take this with a grain of salt. The truth is that Obamacare premiums started out lower than most analysts predicted, because (a) insurers turned out to be really interested in lowballing their prices in order to gain market share, and (b) they didn’t have much data to base their rates on. As the market shakes out, real-world data will become more available and market shares will start to settle down. It’s possible that this will drive a couple of years of semi-large-ish premium increases, but that’s about it. And maybe not even that much.

So don’t panic. We don’t know yet if premiums are really going up 11 percent. But even if they are, it shouldn’t be a huge surprise. The real test will be how the original Obamacare projections compare to real-life premiums in, say, 2019. My guess is that they’ll be fairly close. More here from Charles Gaba, who basically says we just don’t know yet what will happen in 2017.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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