Is Donald Trump Really Ahead By 7 Points? Really?

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Here’s the lead story in this morning’s LA Times:

Donald Trump has gotten a significant boost from his party’s nominating convention last week; now, Hillary Clinton will try for her own….In Trump’s case, the post-convention bounce started to show up in a significant way on Sunday in the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll of the presidential race. The boost continued to build for several days and Trump now holds a 7-percentage-point lead, 47% to 40%.

This has already been disappeared from the front page of the web edition, perhaps out of sheer embarrassment. The problem it represents is a widespread one: because this poll is sponsored by the Times, they give it big play and act as if no other poll of the race exists. In fact, it’s a major outlier. The other three most recent polls (Rasmussen, CBS, CNN) basically show the race tied.

This is a bad media habit. They like to hype their own polls without telling their readers what other polls say. It’s understandable, but in this day and age it’s also inexcusable. The Times has almost certainly badly misled its readers here.

POSTSCRIPT: And one other thing. Even in the LAT poll, Trump is up 46.7 percent to 40.6 percent. That’s a 6-point lead, not a 7-point lead.

DONALD TRUMP & DEMOCRACY

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DONALD TRUMP & DEMOCRACY

Mother Jones was founded to do journalism differently. We stand for justice and democracy. We reject false equivalence. We go after stories others don’t. We’re a nonprofit newsroom, because the kind of truth-telling investigations we do doesn’t happen under corporate ownership.

And we need your support like never before, to fight back against the existential threats American democracy faces. Fundraising for nonprofit media is always a challenge, and we need all hands on deck right now. We have no cushion; we leave it all on the field.

It’s reader support that enables Mother Jones to report the facts that are too difficult, expensive, or inconvenient for other news outlets to uncover. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

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