Even the White Working Class Is Abandoning Trump

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Ed Kilgore points out that in the latest polls, Trump is not just behind, he’s even losing ground with his most fervent supporters, the white working class:

He’s still leading in this demographic, to be sure. But every recent Republican has won it, by ever-increasing margins. Mitt Romney won non-college-educated white voters by an estimated 62-36 in 2012….That could be changing. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal survey showed his lead among non-college-educated white voters drooping to 49-36. Similarly, McClatchy/Marist pegs it at 46-31. These are not world-beating numbers. And you have to wonder: If Trump is losing his special appeal to the voting category that has long been his campaign’s signature “base,” where is he supposed to make that up?

In short, Romney won the WWC by 26 points. Trump is winning it by only about 15 points. This is devastating if it keeps up. Trump doesn’t just need to match Romney’s numbers, he needs to beat them. If he can’t stay even with 2012 at a minimum, he’s got no chance to win.

I would be very interested to see these numbers broken down by region. Unfortunately, this produces very small subgroups, which makes it hard to draw any firm statistical conclusions. Nonetheless, there’s not much question that there are two fundamentally different varieties of the white working class: the Southern WWC and all the rest of them. If Trump is losing even the Southern WWC, he’s doomed.

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IT'S NOT THAT WE'RE SCREWED WITHOUT TRUMP:

"It's that we're screwed with or without him if we can't show the public that what we do matters for the long term," writes Mother Jones CEO Monika Bauerlein as she kicks off our drive to raise $350,000 in donations from readers by July 17.

This is a big one for us. So, as we ask you to consider supporting our team's journalism, we thought we'd slow down and check in about where Mother Jones is and where we're going after the chaotic last several years. This comparatively slow moment is also an urgent one for Mother Jones: You can read more in "Slow News Is Good News," and if you're able to, please support our team's hard-hitting journalism and help us reach our big $350,000 goal with a donation today.

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