Three Poll Averages, Three Slightly Different Forecasts

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I needed to kill a little time this morning, so here’s a comparison of three different polling averages for the presidential race. I’ve stretched them out so that all three are roughly to the same scale. The Pollster model shows a very steady race, with just a little tightening but no real trend for either candidate. Upshot and 538 both show significant tightening, but with Hillary Clinton still in a solid lead with only 48 hours to go.

Who’s right? We’ll probably never know. If Clinton wins by, say, four points, all three will most likely be able to say they were within a point of the final number. On the other hand, if Clinton wins by six points, then Pollster was clearly closer than the other two. If she wins by one point, then the Upshot was closest. Exciting, isn’t it?

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THE TRUTH...

is the first thing despots go after. An unwavering commitment to it is probably what draws you to Mother Jones' journalism. And as we're seeing in the US and the world around, authoritarians seek to poison the discourse and the way we relate to each other because they can't stand people coming together around a shared sense of the truth—it's a huge threat to them.

Which is also a pretty great way to describe Mother Jones' mission: People coming together around the truth to hold power accountable.

And right now, we need to raise about $400,000 from our online readers over the next two months to hit our annual goal and make good on that mission. Read more about the information war we find ourselves in and how people-powered, independent reporting can and must rise to the challenge—and please support our team's truth-telling journalism with a donation if you can right now.

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