Vox has a new survey out that bodes poorly for Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. It turns out that Donald Trump’s approval rating is down almost everywhere over the past few months—but that “almost” is a killer. The one place where Trump’s approval has held steady is the one place where Democrats actually need it to go down:
Nobody cares much about safe left and right districts, where nothing is likely to change. Meanwhile, Trump’s declining approval in districts that Democrats hold by a small margin is positive for Dems, but only slightly. Given the dynamics of midterm elections, where the out-of-power party usually does well, they were always likely to hold most of these districts.
What Democrats really want is to pick up some close districts currently held by Republicans. But that’s the one place where Trump is stubbornly holding on. If Democrats are hoping Trump will have some negative coattails that will help them next year, they aren’t seeing it yet.
Of course, we still have more than a year to go. There’s no telling what Trump could do over the next 15 months.