Chart of the Day: Obamacare Enrollments Likely to End Lower Than Last Year

Here’s my latest estimate of Obamacare signups through the end of last week:

Signups on the federal exchange are 19 percent ahead of last year, so I’m projecting that total signups are also 19 percent ahead.

Friday is the last day to enroll on the federal exchange, so this week should be a strong one. I expect that we’ll end up around 6 million signups plus another 1-2 million auto-renewals on HC.gov. At a guess, that means total signups will be in the range of 10-11 million once all the state exchanges have reported in. That would be down from 12 million last year.

Some of this might be due to an increase in folks who are above the income cutoff for subsidies and can actually get a better deal off-exchange than they can via Obamacare (due to the intricacies of the CSR elimination). But most of it is probably just a reminder that sabotage works. Confusion, lack of outreach, and an arbitrarily short enrollment period have done their intended job.

HERE ARE THE FACTS:

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ONE MORE QUICK THING:

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As we wrote over the summer, traffic has been down at Mother Jones and a lot of sites with many people thinking news is less important now that Donald Trump is no longer president. But if you're reading this, you're not one of those people, and we're hoping we can rally support from folks like you who really get why our reporting matters right now. And that's how it's always worked: For 45 years now, a relatively small group of readers (compared to everyone we reach) who pitch in from time to time has allowed Mother Jones to do the type of journalism the moment demands and keep it free for everyone else.

Please pitch in with a donation during our fall fundraising drive if you can. We can't afford to come up short, and there's still a long way to go by November 5.

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