Here’s Why Summer Employment Numbers Are a Little Sketchy

Earlier this morning I mentioned that June’s rise in the unemployment rate was due to a big increase in the civilian labor force, mostly caused by people graduating from high school or college. If you’d like to see this in chart form, here it is:

Every year, starting in June and peaking in July, the labor force spikes upward. Then September rolls around, and lots of kids go back to college, thus taking themselves out of the labor force. This is basically meaningless, which is why for most purposes we always use the seasonally adjusted figures, shown by the dotted line. That helps, but some of the spike remains, as it did in June’s numbers this year. Here’s how this affects the unemployment rate:

Unemployment spikes in January, when temporary holiday workers go back home, and in July, when kids are temporarily on summer vacation. The seasonal adjustment smooths out most of this, but not all. That’s one reason among many not to get too agitated over a single month’s numbers, especially in summer.

NOTE: Like most people, I always use seasonally adjusted figures. If you see a chart, it’s seasonally adjusted unless I specifically say otherwise.

DONALD TRUMP & DEMOCRACY

Mother Jones was founded to do journalism differently. We stand for justice and democracy. We reject false equivalence. We go after stories others don’t. We’re a nonprofit newsroom, because the kind of truth-telling investigations we do doesn’t happen under corporate ownership.

And we need your support like never before, to fight back against the existential threats American democracy faces. Fundraising for nonprofit media is always a challenge, and we need all hands on deck right now. We have no cushion; we leave it all on the field.

It’s reader support that enables Mother Jones to report the facts that are too difficult, expensive, or inconvenient for other news outlets to uncover. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

payment methods

DONALD TRUMP & DEMOCRACY

Mother Jones was founded to do journalism differently. We stand for justice and democracy. We reject false equivalence. We go after stories others don’t. We’re a nonprofit newsroom, because the kind of truth-telling investigations we do doesn’t happen under corporate ownership.

And we need your support like never before, to fight back against the existential threats American democracy faces. Fundraising for nonprofit media is always a challenge, and we need all hands on deck right now. We have no cushion; we leave it all on the field.

It’s reader support that enables Mother Jones to report the facts that are too difficult, expensive, or inconvenient for other news outlets to uncover. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate