Donald Trump appears to be on a mission to either destroy or damage the economies of China, Iran, Russia, and Turkey. I assume he’s thinking that this is all a zero-sum game, and if they do badly the United States will do great. This is, needless to say, not the case. The 1997 financial crisis started in Asia. The 1998 financial crisis started in Russia. The 1995 peso crisis started in Mexico and, luckily, stayed there because the United States intervened to help out. The 2008 crash, of course, started in the United States and then spread to Europe, China, and everywhere else. Even little Iceland played an unusual starring role.
So what country will spark off the next big global financial crisis? It doesn’t necessarily have to be a big one. It just has to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Turkey? Iran? Post-Brexit Britain? Russia? China? The Philippines? Greece? Who knows? It could be any of them.
And what if the United States doesn’t intervene to help out, but instead stands on the sidelines with its president tweeting that they’re just getting what they deserve? That’s never happened before. But it would probably be bad, wouldn’t it?