The Kavanaugh Vote Is Still 51-49, But That Can Change

These are the potential swing votes on Brett Kavanaugh's nomination: Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., Susan Collins, R-Maine, Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska.Tom Williams/Congressional Quarterly/Newscom via ZUMA

Brett Kavanaugh won a procedural vote this morning to cut off debate on his nomination and move toward a final vote on Saturday. The vote was 51-49 along party lines with two exceptions:

  • Joe Manchin (D–WV) voted yes
  • Lisa Murkowski (R–Alaska) voted no

Sen. Susan Collins (R–Maine) voted yes on the procedural vote but didn’t commit to how she’d vote on the final confirmation vote.

If Murkowski votes no, the vote would be 50-50 and Vice President Mike Pence would break the tie. If Collins or Manchin also vote no, the vote would be 49-51 and the Kavanaugh nonimation would fail

This makes Collins and Manchin the people to watch, along with Jeff Flake, I suppose, who just might change his final vote on Kavanaugh to no. He provided no indication of whether he was thinking of doing this.

So that’s that. That’s the state of play. If you care about this, it’s time to make a phone call, especially if you live in the same state any of these senators. As always, be polite. Yelling and screaming at Senate staff doesn’t do any good.