This isn’t really more predictions, just the same one as yesterday but presented with a little more context. I finally got tired of reading endless headlines about how the Democratic lead in the generic ballot is “shrinking” or “widening” or “eroding” or whatever, so I went off to 538.com to get the answer. Here it is:

There you have it. Ignore the individual polls, which can easily change by several points for no particular reason. You may truthfully say that “the Democratic lead has grown substantially since summer” or “the Democratic lead has shrunk slightly since September.”  Whichever one supports your narrative is OK. But those two choices are about all you have.

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It’s really that simple. But if you’d like to read a bit more, our membership lead, Brian Hiatt, has a post for you highlighting some of our newsroom's impressive, impactful work of late—including two big investigations in just one day and covering voting rights the way it needs to be done—that we hope you’ll agree is worth supporting.

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